Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model discussion - March drawing to a close

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

 Share

Recommended Posts

MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

Ship ahoy, tha she blows! 

gfs-1-168.png

gfs-0-174.png

gfs-1-180.png

12_174_preciptype.png

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Popular Post
Posted

GFS lining up another arctic shot at 288hrs...you wait for months for this type of set up, and they send 2 your way in a few days... Typical.... But I'm liking it. 

gfs-0-288.png

Well_i_have_to_admit_the_tears_were_falling_down__4dbdb35c73eb21489b302c758b6d9784.gif

  • Like 8
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

The Gfs 12z operational gives the uk a double / triple whammy of wintry weather with snow next week, there is even more snow in low res!..more wintry than anything we saw in winter if it verifies..should I wax the sled or wait for the Ecm 12z?!:cold:

12_240_preciptype.png

12_252_preciptype.png

12_252_ukthickness850.png

12_288_preciptype.png

12_300_preciptype.png

12_324_preciptype.png

12_312_ukthickness850.png

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites
SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

GFS lining up another arctic shot at 288hrs...you wait for months for this type of set up, and they send 2 your way in a few days... Typical.... But I'm liking it. 

gfs-0-288.png

Well_i_have_to_admit_the_tears_were_falling_down__4dbdb35c73eb21489b302c758b6d9784.gif

yep typical can’t get a decent wintry setup all winter then once spring arrives great looking charts appear and they verify too.Lost count the amount of times that has happened over the years.Thats what is so frustrating about our climate

Edited by SLEETY
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

The 12z parallel is much less wintry than the operational with the -10 uppers not digging south, rather pulling away across the far NE..so, I won't be waxing the sled until / if there is cross model agreement a few days before it's due to arrive. 

GFSPARAEU12_177_2.png

GFSPARAEU12_192_2.png

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
15 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The 12z parallel is much less wintry than the operational with the -10 uppers not digging south, rather pulling away across the far NE..so, I won't be waxing the sled until / if there is cross model agreement a few days before it's due to arrive. 

The para once again shows it can't be trusted, the 6z being a cold run, followed by the 12z being a milder run! I've noticed UKMO doesn't seem to be setting up a Nthly as well, but it still on the cold side out to day 6, icon also brings a Nthly, but perhaps not as potent! 

icon-0-180.png

graphe3_1000_272_50___.gif

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I've noticed UKMO doesn't seem to be setting up a Nthly as well

Absolutely correct, when compared to the Gfs 12z operational in the same timeframe.:oldgood:

UW144-21.gif

gfs-0-144.png

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

That's that sorted, then?:oldgood:image.thumb.png.6df2612b030ee95aa06fa1637e0c235c.png

A bit far out for me Pete, I think we have problems with the next 5-7 days tbh. If ECM is not coming onboard this evening, then this Nthly could be dead in the water before it's started. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

The GEFS 12z contains some absolutely stonking arctic shots next week..even more than the 6z!..I'm in love with P18

3_168_850tmp.png

6_168_850tmp.png

7_186_850tmp.png

13_186_850tmp.png

14_174_850tmp.png

15_180_850tmp.png

16_180_850tmp.png

18_180_850tmp.png

18_204_850tmp.png

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

GFS and ECM at 120hrs, so far so good! 

gfs-0-120.png

ECM1-120.gif

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted (edited)

P18 Karl... Wowzer!! Pushes the - 12c right through the uk!!! 

Edit... Some quite impressive pools of cold around the UK at day 6 on ECM. 

gens-18-1-216.png

gens-18-0-216.png

ECM0-144.gif

Edited by Mattwolves
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

The Ecm 12z sucks compared to the Gfs regarding next week's cold ppppotential!

-5 uppers..-2 uppers..meh

168_thickuk.png

192_thickuk.png

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted (edited)

Yep, ECM seems to have completely different ideas to GFS. Not sure what direction it wants to take. 

Edit... It even seems to have ideas on a continental feed! 

ECM1-168.gif

ECM1-192.gif

ECM1-216.gif

RedFocusedKid-max-1mb.gif

Edited by Mattwolves
  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Yep, ECM seems to have completely different ideas to GFS. Not sure what direction it wants to take. 

ECM1-168.gif

ECM1-192.gif

 

 

too far west the setup, bit like this

archives-2013-1-14-0-0.pngarchives-2013-1-14-12-0.png

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Those last few frames from the Ecm 12z would have been great in winter but not in early april..I really want to see a full on arctic blast or roll on summer!

ECMOPEU12_216_2.png

ECMOPEU12_240_2.png

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
Just now, Frosty. said:

Those last few frames from the Ecm 12z would have been great in winter but not in early april..I really want to see a full on arctic blast or roll on summer!

Good shout Karl, we haven't got the uppers across the central continent to even make it worthwhile! We basically like you say, need a full on Ntly... No weak ass Estly would cut it.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
KTtom Experienced

KTtom

Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
Posted (edited)

Temperature anomaly for week 1 April...not that this site covered itself in glory with its maps through the winter months...

MonthlyAnomalies_T2m_20190325_w2.png

Edited by KTtom
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted

Looks like another GFS tease to me!  Doubt next week will be anything to write home about.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
Just now, Don said:

Looks like another GFS tease to me!  Doubt next week will be anything to write home about.

EC will probably closer, the setup is too far west, bringing rain and cool winds

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

There's good signs towards the end of the GEFS 12z with warmer and more settled potential.

8_366_850tmp.png

8_366_2mtmpmax.png

12_366_850tmp.png

12_366_2mtmpmax.png

12_384_850tmp.png

19_384_850tmp.png

19_384_2mtmpmax.png

21_366_500mb.png

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
4 minutes ago, Don said:

Expect a backtrack from GFS regarding next week over the next few runs.

Why?

Both ECM and GEM look below average temperature wise out to day 10

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
3 minutes ago, Don said:

Expect a backtrack from GFS regarding next week over the next few runs.

Pretty sure you said that daily regarding the met updates during winter...... But you know what Don??? They never did!!! But you proved to be correct anyway!!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing

  • Latest Weather News

    April showers, sunny spells and nippy nights

    Another mixed, cool day with sunny spells and scattered showers. Passing low pressures will bring wind and rain as the nippy nights continue. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts | 
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-04-16 07:15:52 Valid: 16/04/2024 0600 - 17/04/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - TUES 16 APRIL 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F | 
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    European weekend heat and a wild start to Monday for the UK

    April temperature records were broken in many locations in Spain and France this weekend. Cooler air is on the way with a wet and wild Monday morning in the Midlands. Read more here

    Jo Farrow
    Jo Farrow | 
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...