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Model discussion - March drawing to a close


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

The FV3 take on the Nthly at around 180hrs! It looks good to me folks... Not only that, wouldn't it be literally the first Nthly of an entire season dating back to December! 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
7 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

 

gfs-1-186.png

 

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giphy.gif

Great movie..Great charts too!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean is warming to the idea of a colder plunge around next midweek compared to recent runs.

EDM1-192.GIF

EDM0-192.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Just now, Frosty. said:

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean is warming to the idea of a colder plunge around next midweek compared to recent runs.

Yes Karl, looking good, just check out the FV3 at around 220hrs, - 12c being breached in places, that would sure to bring convection and quite a bit of snow in places. 

gfs-1-222.png

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Chances of snow in early April looking fairly high based on this mornings runs especially for the north

gefsens850Edinburgh0.thumb.png.5c1e95c22b1afbe5024fd7d3cd2b2c65.pnggefsens850Newcastle0.thumb.png.9a0d9b2ff03c6a826fef24004baa23e3.png

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.c757737e800f0a3dbbf00aafb0de8de0.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Chances of snow in early April looking fairly high based on this mornings runs especially for the north

 

I'm in shock SS, this must be a good sign for you to mention SNOW!! welcome to the cold brigade, we have finally converted YOU SS. Thanks for the ensembles, was just gonna post em... Know need now.

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

 There's very good support from the GEFS 6z for an Arctic maritime plunge next week, some variation with timings and potency but it's a strong signal currently!

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Hahah Steve, made me laugh that one. There must be something a brewing for you to be on! 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

-11.2c @850 is the lowest GFS run for London!

-12c for the North of England -

-13.6 was the lowest for the North of Scotland !

I will actually be surprised and disappointed if there isn't a cold plunge from the arctic next week, support is still growing

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

Tis the season of flip flops (in Synoptics not footwear). Lots of variety in the models it seems. A cold first week of April followed by a rapid warm up perhaps? The reverse happened in 2008 with s high of 19C on the 3rd to just 6C on the 6th, and only because of sunshine.

If we can get some disturbances in the flow during night hours then some accumulations even on lower ground are a possibility.

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12 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I will actually be surprised and disappointed if there isn't a cold plunge from the arctic next week, support is still growing

It snowed here last week  - a light flurry 

That means since we moved up to Our new location in May 17 it has snowed

Nov Dec 17

Jan Feb mar 18

Nov Dec 18

Jan Feb Mar 18

April 19?!!

Whats important is the models are bringing in very low unstable heights as well which will drive showers etc south!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Just to show my cold bias isn't as extreme as the Gfs parallel, I went searching for some warmer charts in the GEFS 6z and found these but there really wasn't many to choose from in the mid / longer term!

16_372_850tmp.png

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20_276_850tmp.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The 6z parallel is also going for an Arctic blast, only a very short one but with a little fine tuning on subsequent runs there could be repeated cold bursts with the jet aligned nw / se.

GFSPARAEU06_198_2.png

GFSPARAEU06_201_1.png

GFSPARAEU06_201_7.png

GFSPARAEU06_201_47.png

GFSPARAEU06_201_17.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Well if this don't float ya boats folks I don't know what will.... And its all within that dreaded 10 day range!! Come on let's count it down.... Know drama!!! 

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Afternoon all

Plenty of teases on the models in low-res but the first question is will the Arctic push early next week? Some form of N'ly is clearly the majority call on the 06Z GEFS at T+168 but it's far from a done deal.

From there the synoptics in FI get very interesting with heights to the NE and low heights yo the south developing as either the trough drops down into NW Europe or the LP over Iberia expands and creates a new European trough. Both relate to the winding down of the PV - the Parallel is more bullish then the OP as usual. OP and Parallel in far FI a negatively tilted trough with the core through the British Isles but over on the Strat thread Gray Wolf has argued this is all wrong and we will be in a warm S'ly flow.

I'm not convinced - the form horse looks to be a N'ly or cold E'ly incursion before a sudden shift to a much warmer airmass (a SE'ly perhaps?)  

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Interesting chart from navgem at 6hrs, looks like a complete powercut across the board! Signs of significant change a foot perhaps!

navgem-0-6.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
9 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Interesting chart from navgem at 6hrs, looks like a complete powercut across the board! Signs of significant change a foot perhaps!

navgem-0-6.png

I prefer this one, head over to confused.com for clarity

GFSSPAGEU06_264_1.png

F1E4CD7A-ED68-496F-9C37-A166975CEDAA.gif.b4e6f22aad13edd1c74905175d85f0e3.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

No mention from exeter of a Northerly next week or indeed any wintry showers / sleet and snow like the Gfs 00z / 6z operational / parallel and GEFS is again showing today but saying it is likely to be fairly cold and changeable / unsettled through the period with some overnight frosts possible is an upgrade compared to previous updates..for coldies!

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

Well if this don't float ya boats folks I don't know what will.... And its all within that dreaded 10 day range!! Come on let's count it down.... Know drama!!! 

06_174_preciptype.png

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I suppose I’ve seen worse....  Pity it’s still a week away!  Nice to have some late season interest all the same.

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
2 minutes ago, Don said:

I suppose I’ve seen worse....  Pity it’s still a week away!

A week away....that’s been most of this winter regarding the models, hardly seen a flake me, I’ll be watching with interest..... just hope it don’t flip flop

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
45 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

No mention from exeter of a Northerly next week or indeed any wintry showers / sleet and snow like the Gfs 00z / 6z operational / parallel and GEFS is again showing

Yes Karl I've noticed this, either the GFS has got this wrong or the met don't show a great deal of interest regarding this model. So I will be keen to see which way the 12s go, ECM included.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Here comes the snow and arctic air

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Edited by Frosty.
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