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Model discussion - March drawing to a close

Paul

By Paul
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Certainly tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean is trending more changeable / unsettled next week and it doesn't look mild, not that cold either but not mild like we are seeing this week..indeed, following a largely settled increasingly  warm week and start to the weekend, it turns colder and less settled for sun / mon.

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EDM0-240.GIF

Edited by Frosty.
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Now that's what I call a Northerly blast, insane for the time of year it's showing!❄️:cold:drifting snow, high windchill, ice days..calm down karl..zen zen

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Craig-Revel-Horwood-10.jpg

Edited by Frosty.
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Now that's what I call a Northerly blast, insane for the time of year it's showing!❄️:cold:

16_312_2mtmpmax.png

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Craig-Revel-Horwood-10.jpg

Reminds me a bit of my first wedding anniversary (11-04-1978)...tennis in the snow!

image.thumb.png.69d0a4e0940b7c4e22912857afaa8ec4.pngimage.thumb.png.9d498ea0a95e2c3245a28b1cb6570b40.png  

Temps like those play havoc with your balls!

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Popular Post
Posted

What a stunner. 

gensnh-11-1-228.png

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

Arctic plunge part 1

Only 7 days away folks.... We are in the game!!!! 

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18_204_preciptype.png

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Winters coming..brace yourselves....tell your family, stock up on essentials, gird your loins..hunker down!❄️:cold-emoji:

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o4eU3psLz9b6gwpIrXhSfr2DiSW.jpg

winteriscoming.jpg

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

Boommmmm, that's about as straight a Ntly as you will ever get! 

gfs-0-222.png

gfs-1-228.png

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

And then comes the thaw and those 20 foot deep snow drifts start to melt..still, it was good while it lasted

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

That's some pretty extreme cold (for April) on the 18z GFS. Some damaging frosts shown too.

image.thumb.png.b9ea5f74d076e708f4bb3c5387a5bf6c.png

Edited by CreweCold
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

That's some pretty extreme cold (for April) on the 18z GFS. Some damaging frosts shown too.

What's so amazing is the coldest uppers missed us to the west..imagine what a direct hit would have been like!

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

What's so amazing is the coldest uppers missed us to the west..imagine what a direct hit would have been like!

The thicknesses are quite remarkable for April, the whole upper profile is shown to be very cold

image.thumb.png.d98f080a6fb6494ae5684a6ab4a5a130.png

Thundersnow aplenty in that set up.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

What's so amazing is the coldest uppers missed us to the west..imagine what a direct hit would have been like!

Usually it's all too far east, this time the main thrust is further west..unusual, however, I am loving all this cold eye candy in spring following an utterly demoralizing exhausting winter..hope we can get lucky at least once until the chase begins again later in the year!!

18_216_mslp850.png

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

ECM and GFS at similar time frames!! Not bad folks, anyway that's me done, my eyes are bulging out like a cartoon character from all the studying! 

gfsnh-0-222.png

ECH1-216.gif

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SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Popular Post
Posted

Yeah the most wintry looking charts we have seen all year, as we head towards April. Bring it on,we deserve a change of luck.some of us have been chasing cold since mid November for goodness sake and still we are here

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Polar Maritime Maestro

Polar Maritime

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
Posted

Quite a potent Northerly still showing into Wk2 on the GFS, With -10/-11c uppers pushing down over the UK. 

1512361009_viewimage(57).thumb.png.4932cc47be0e1752fb808eba32f7a3ca.png

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

The Gfs is still showing the arctic visiting the UK next week with snow for many❄️

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00_204_preciptype.png

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
9 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

Boommmmm, that's about as straight a Ntly as you will ever get! 

gfs-0-222.png

gfs-1-228.png

Aye, and the advantage of April, if that was Jan, no snow at all due to wishbone effect

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

The Ecm 00z doesn't really cut the mustard in terms of cold next week with -5 uppers which means max temps of 10-12c in early april..a bit colder for scotland...uppers of -10 / -15 are necessary in early April to deliver enough of a sting.

Edited by Frosty.
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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
16 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Ecm 00z doesn't really cut the mustard in terms of cold next week with -5 uppers which means max temps of 10-12c in early april..a bit colder for scotland...uppers of -10 / -15 are necessary in early April to deliver enough of a sting.

often other way round here, Dec and Jan -10 needed, April can be -5, off convective setup

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
11 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

often other way round here, Dec and Jan -10 needed, April can be -5, off convective setup

-5 uppers don't excite me at all, in winter and certainly not spring..it has to be a potent blast or bring on summer!

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

There's something in the wind, alright! image.thumb.png.865255cb8de1122e05daf74765329ad5.png

 

                                                              image.thumb.png.da94a7de0e1a9c7575efdf8d4eb58474.png

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Not bad, not bad at all..I'm just off to wax the sled❄️

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weirpig Maestro

weirpig

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
Posted

Nice little attempt  and something wintry next week   highs of around 5-7c    maybe slightly colder   with the chance of something white  on high ground     uppers probably some of the coldest we have seen all winter   

 

 

 

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Overall, not a bad run at all: sunshine for this week; a sudden change to wintry conditions, early April; a gradual warm-up, to this:

image.thumb.png.ff893408610d541e99df3a051ff1e227.pngimage.thumb.png.b0e330862914d81f6ca26cda10b08f1a.png   

And, also - there looks like being plenty of convective potential, too...?:oldgood:

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