April 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[damianslaw]

Whilst next week will see a significant climb in CET values, the jury is still out what will happen during the latter part of the month. Currently it looks like temps may nudge down closer to near average from 22nd onwards, a finish in the low 9s could be a good bet, possibility mid-high 9s and if there is a marked downturn mid 8s. A much closer to average month most likely compared to Feb and March, and once again another month with contrasting halves.. 

[Don]

16 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Whilst next week will see a significant climb in CET values, the jury is still out what will happen during the latter part of the month. Currently it looks like temps may nudge down closer to near average from 22nd onwards, a finish in the low 9s could be a good bet, possibility mid-high 9s and if there is a marked downturn mid 8s. A much closer to average month most likely compared to Feb and March, and once again another month with contrasting halves.. 

Mid 8's would be good as I went for 8.5C!  However, I would say an outside chance now.

[DAVID SNOW]

Don't forget to factor in the downward adjustment, 0.4 or perhaps 0.5 imo.

[Summer Sun]

6.9c to the 14th

Bang on the 61 to 90 average

0.8 below the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________

Current high this month 8.1c to the 1st

Current low this month 5.9c to the 4th

[Man With Beard]

5 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

6.9c to the 14th

Bang on the 61 to 90 average

0.8 below the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________

Current high this month 8.1c to the 1st

Current low this month 5.9c to the 4th

Still will take quite a good effort to get above 9 from there. Will need to average over 11 in next two weeks. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 6.1C -1.1C below normal but onwards and upwards from this point on. Rainfall unchanged at 5mm 7.9% of the monthly average

[Roger J Smith]

Low to mid 8's for CET look plausible given the now to Easter weekend warming (may be a bit less robust than some speculations) followed by at best average in the last week of April. My current provisional of 50 mm for EWP looks under some upward pressure with current output suggesting a bit of rain this week and quite a bit the following week, if that trend firms up will publish a revision to a higher number for your interest. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 6.2C -1.1C below average . Rainfall Unchanged.

[Badgers01]

Judging by the forecast probs another above average month - April can warm up quickly look at last year ! 

[Summer Sun]

7.0c to the 15th

Bang on the 61 to 90 average

0.7 below the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________

Current high this month 8.1c to the 1st

Current low this month 5.9c to the 4th

[Don]

4 hours ago, Badgers01 said:

Judging by the forecast probs another above average month - April can warm up quickly look at last year ! 

It did indeed and set the scene for the rest of the year really.

[Summer Sun]

7.2c to the 16th

0.1 above the 61 to 90 average

0.5 below the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________

Current high this month 8.1c to the 1st

Current low this month 5.9c to the 4th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 6.4C -1.0C below normal. Rainfall at 5mm just 7.9% of average.

[snowray]

Well if a bland and certainly not at all mild day like yesterday can produce a 0.2c rise, and we are going to see more big rises in the next few days, it's likely to turn into a very mild second half of April.

[Roger J Smith]

With 7.2 provisional after 16 days, (edit 6.6 in final data) and a warm spell ahead, here are the largest increases in CET value from 16th to 23rd and end of month (all that increased by 2.0 or more from 16th to end). Record daily highs were set in 1893 and 1775 as part of those increases. For 2019 to make this large a jump would require a mean of 11.5 for the last fourteen days of the month (if all provisionals equal finals, possibly a bit lower since our 7.2 now may only be 6.8 after adjustments). Three cases marked in green type are probably closest to this April in terms of current actual CET.

(edit May 13th -- 2019 has been added to table from final values).

YEAR ____ 16th CET __ 23rd CET __ 30th CET 

1968 _______ 5.2 ______ 7.3 ______ 8.1 (+2.9)

1824 _______ 4.6 ______ 6.0 ______ 7.4 (+2.8)

1958 _______ 4.7 ______ 6.3 ______ 7.4 (+2.7)

1816 _______ 4.0 ______ 5.2 ______ 6.6 (+2.6)

1885 _______ 5.1 ______ 7.0 ______ 7.7 (+2.6)

1917 _______ 2.8 ______ 4.3 ______ 5.4 (+2.6)

1840 _______ 7.2 ______ 8.3 ______ 9.7 (+2.5)

2019 _______ 6.6 ______ 8.8 ______ 9.1 (+2.5)

1842 _______ 5.4 ______ 6.4 ______ 7.8 (+2.4)

1975 _______ 5.9 ______ 7.4 ______ 8.3 (+2.4)

1984 _______ 5.7 ______ 7.2 ______ 8.1 (+2.4)

1794 _______ 7.9 ______ 9.2 _____ 10.2 (+2.3)

1924 _______ 4.6 ______ 6.0 ______ 6.9 (+2.3) 

1810 _______ 6.0 ______ 7.3 ______ 8.2 (+2.2)

1994 _______ 5.9 ______ 6.7 ______ 8.1 (+2.2)

2000 _______ 5.6 ______ 6.8 ______ 7.8 (+2.2)

1839 _______ 4.3 ______ 5.6 ______ 6.4 (+2.1)

1862 _______ 6.7 ______ 7.9 ______ 8.8 (+2.1)

1874 _______ 7.7 ______ 9.2 ______ 9.8 (+2.1)

1987 _______ 8.2 ______ 9.2 _____ 10.3 (+2.1)

1775 _______ 7.8 ______ 8.3 ______ 9.8 (+2.0)

1845 _______ 6.6 ______ 7.5 ______ 8.6 (+2.0)

1893 _______ 8.3 ______ 9.8 _____ 10.3 (+2.0)
_________________________________________________

2019 ended up tied with 1840 for 7th place in this value of CET increase 16th to 30th.

 

Edited May 14, 2019 by Roger J Smith

[kold weather]

Seems to be two situations on the model, one allows the upper trough to push the warm air far enough east that we end up in a set-up with lots of rain and probably CET dailys close or slightly above normal. The other solution has been hinted at by both ECM and GFS and keeps the warm air in place which keeps maxes in the 15-18c range and so makes some of those larger jumps in the CET possible.

[damianslaw]

Surprised not to see April 2018 in the list above, I thought we saw a marked jump in CET values first half to second half, would be interested to note the CET at this stage in April 2018 and the finish, there was a warm up exactly same timing as now, and equally on a par with what is forecast, with a cool down at the end but nothing especially chilly.

Most notable aspect of this month so far has been the dry weather, we've barely had any rain for 2 weeks now, just a splash yesterday, and if todays forecast verifies it could easily be 3 weeks, nothing that exceptional in April, but quite noticeable. I prefer a wet April to a wet May..

[emmett garland]

26 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Surprised not to see April 2018 in the list above, I thought we saw a marked jump in CET values first half to second half, would be interested to note the CET at this stage in April 2018 and the finish, there was a warm up exactly same timing as now, and equally on a par with what is forecast, with a cool down at the end but nothing especially chilly.

Most notable aspect of this month so far has been the dry weather, we've barely had any rain for 2 weeks now, just a splash yesterday, and if todays forecast verifies it could easily be 3 weeks, nothing that exceptional in April, but quite noticeable. I prefer a wet April to a wet May..

well come to Ireland where we have had  1 - 5 inches of rain in places last seven days

[Roger J Smith]

51 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Surprised not to see April 2018 in the list above, I thought we saw a marked jump in CET values first half to second half, would be interested to note the CET at this stage in April 2018 and the finish, there was a warm up exactly same timing as now, and equally on a par with what is forecast, with a cool down at the end but nothing especially chilly.

Most notable aspect of this month so far has been the dry weather, we've barely had any rain for 2 weeks now, just a splash yesterday, and if todays forecast verifies it could easily be 3 weeks, nothing that exceptional in April, but quite noticeable. I prefer a wet April to a wet May..

2018 was close to making the list but fell back at the end, the numbers were 8.5 (16th), 10.3 (23rd) then 9.8 (end). The new records for the 18th (17.0) and 19th (17.6) were of course set last year, the 19th becoming the second warmest April day (17.6) after 29th April 1775 (19.7). I wonder if we'll have a new second place finisher before this time next week? Going to say 17.8 possible on Saturday or Sunday, don't think the all-timer will fall. Third place all time was 17.4 on 30th of 1775. 

I checked to see what high values might be hiding between 17.4 and 19.7 on the 29th, to verify second and third places overall, and the record without that all-time max would have been 16.3 in 1828. The highest value on the 30th after 1775 was 16.8 in 1827. 

Edited April 17, 2019 by Roger J Smith

[damianslaw]

14 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

2018 was close to making the list but fell back at the end, the numbers were 8.5 (16th), 10.3 (23rd) then 9.8 (end). The new records for the 18th and 19th were of course set last year, the 19th becoming the second warmest April day (17.6) after 29th April 1775 (19.7). I wonder if we'll have a new second place finisher before this time next week? Going to say 17.8 possible on Saturday or Sunday, don't think the all-timer will fall. Third place all time was 17.4 on 30th of 1775. 

Thanks for reply, a much milder first half than I thought, and confirms my memory how warm this time last year was (people have short memories..). Mins will be cooler this year compared to last year. 

Expecting a marked downward correction this month, which will peg final CET values closer to something near normal even if we see a notable mild second half, which could happen.

Also anyone who is about to say warmest April for ages, again short memories 2011 was a record breaker.. and we won't come anywhere near values achieved then.

I'm also surprised how easily temps are expected to climb this weekend, and that the UK will be warmer than much of Europe, doesn't quite equate to me that the med and much of southern europe will be much cooler - is it the source of the air coming off a warming France that we have sole thanks too.. air source in southern europe from the NE?, winds in the central med are forecast to come from N Africa... we do seem to record notable high maxima very easily these days it seems.

Edited April 17, 2019 by damianslaw

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 6.7C -0.8C below normal. Rainfall unchanged.

[kold weather]

Models really starting to agree on this current warm spell extending through next week as well which would lead to a 10 day period somewhere in the 13-15c range which will help to rocket the CET to well above average. 

Given we have been as low as 7c, I suspect this April will be joining Rogers list of years that went up by more than 2c in the second half.

[Summer Sun]

7.4c to the 17th

0.2 above the 61 to 90 average

0.4 below the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________

Current high this month 8.1c to the 1st

Current low this month 5.9c to the 4th

[Don]

4 hours ago, kold weather said:

Given we have been as low as 7c, I suspect this April will be joining Rogers list of years that went up by more than 2c in the second half.

Yes, it looks like my 8.5C guess is off the table now.

[Man With Beard]

4 hours ago, kold weather said:

Models really starting to agree on this current warm spell extending through next week as well which would lead to a 10 day period somewhere in the 13-15c range which will help to rocket the CET to well above average. 

Given we have been as low as 7c, I suspect this April will be joining Rogers list of years that went up by more than 2c in the second half.

It's a close thing but increasingly looking like next week will be in the warm or very warm category. I'm now thinking the CET will be in the 9s. Is it me or have most 2nd halves of months been either well above or well below average for a very long time?