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Roger J Smith

April 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

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Posted (edited)

April CET statistics 

__ the recent 38 values are shown in three groups (14,12,12) colour coded (red is warmest, green medium, blue coolest)

__ the 1981-2010 mean is in light green and the 1989-2018 mean is in orange


19.7 ... warmest April daily mean (29th, 1775)

11.8 ... warmest April (2011)
11.2 ... 2nd warmest April (2007)
10.6 ... 3rd warmest April (1865)
10.5 ... 4th warmest April (1943)

10.4 ... 5th warmest April (1798)

10.3 ... 6th warmest Aprils (tied 1893, 1987)

10.2 ... 2014 (tied 8th with 1794, 1796, 1944)

10.1 ... 12th warmest Aprils (1783, 1869, 1945)

10.0 ... 15th warmest Aprils (seven tied, including 2009)

 9.8 ... 2018

 9.6 ... 2003

 9.5 ... 1993

 9.4 ... 1999, 2004

 9.3 ... 2002

 9.1 ... average for 2001-2018, and 1995
 9.0 ... mean for 14 yrs 1862-1875 (surprise?) and 1997, 2015 

 8.9 ... average for 1991-2018 (this feature tracks the evolving 1991-2020 normal) ... 2005, 2017

 8.8 ... average for 1989-2018 and 2010
 8.7 ... average for 1986-2015 and 1992

 8.6 ... 1982, 2006
 8.5 ... average for 1981-2010 and 1996
 8.3 ... 1985

 8.2 ... 1988

 8.1 ... average for 1971-2000 (and 20th century 1901-2000) (also 1971-2000) ... 1984, 1994
 8.0 ... average for 19th century 1801-1900 ... 1990

 7.9 ... average for all data 1659-2018 (7.94), also 1961-1990, also 18th century 1701-1800 ... 1991, 2008

 7.8 ... 1981, 2000  

 7.7 ... 1998, 2001 

 7.5 ... 2013, 2016 

 7.3 ... average for 1659-1700

 7.2 ... 2012
 

 6.8 ... 1983

 6.6 ... 1989

 5.8 ... 18th coldest (tied) 1986 (coldest of past half century)
 5.4 ... fifth coldest (tied) -- 1917 (coldest 20th century) also 1743,1770,1799
 5.2 ... third coldest (tied) -- 1782 and 1809
 4.7 ... coldest Aprils (1701 and 1837)

--0.2 ... coldest April daily mean second half (19th, 1772)
--0.5 ... coldest April daily mean (2nd, 1917 and 3rd, 1799)

_________________________________________________________________

Enter your forecast for APRIL 2019 by the penalty-free deadline of 00:00 1st of April (end of Sunday 31st March)

... or take a penalty during the first three days of April for a late entry.

 

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ================================================= _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

 

Optional EWP contest for April 2018

The data set in use for the contest (Hadley EWP) with data from 1766 to 2018.

Contest asks for a prediction of April precip in mm. These are the record and average values:

149.9 __ 2012 __ wettest 1766 to 2018 

142.6 __ 2000 __ 2nd wettest 

 64.8 __ average 1981-2010

 64.7 __ average 1989-2018

 10.4 __ 2007 __ driest in 1981-2018 period (1984 was 10.7)

 07.1 __ 1938 __ driest 1766 to 2018 (Hadley gives 7.1)

recent April EWP values ... 2018 _ 91.4 mm, 2017 _ 19.9 mm, 2016 _ 73.3 mm, 2015 _ 28.1 mm, 2014 _ 63.8 mm.

____________________________________

Enter this contest by the same deadline, 10.0 points for closest forecast, 0.2 penalty points per day late (first three days of April).

You can add your EWP forecast to your CET temperature forecast. 

Good luck !! 

Edited by Roger J Smith

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Posted (edited)

8.3 and 85mm

Edited by LetItSnow!

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8.4c & 89mm

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10.2C and 55mm please, Roger.

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8.7 and 93mm please

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14C  :oldsad:  Last sub 5C April in 1837.  Last sub 6C April in 1986.  Last sub 7C April in 1989.  Last sub 7.5C April in 2012.

200mm of Atlantic garbage!

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8.5c and 75mm please, thank you

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9.4C and 80 mm please

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9.2c and 100mm please. 

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Posted (edited)

We had April in February, so perhaps February in April ... 

6.5, second coldest since 1981, and 45 mm some of which could be snow melted. 

(noting a cold trend on guidance plus 1981, 1998 and 2012 all turned colder than March in April -- 1981 got very cold near the end with a late snow).

Edited by Roger J Smith

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Posted (edited)

Very cold April coming up.We surely must get payback from all these mild months after months bar the odd exception.

 

6.1c  and 45mm with persistent N or E winds throughout the month,and the ski industry finally get in full  flow in April  ⛄🎿 ⛷

Edited by SLEETY

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Vile month, northerlies and easterlies to dominate, very wet especially in the south

7.1C and 130mm

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Posted (edited)

Looking like a cold start to April but we could see a warm up after mid month I would have thought so I'll go for a colder month than March but not by much.

7.7c please.

Edited by snowray

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There hasn't been an April that has been at least 1C below it's 1961-90 average since that average came into existence. 

Remarkable.

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Posted (edited)

The last time we had a really cold April was way back in 1989 with 6.6*C.  The coldest of recent times was 2012 that saw 7.2*C.  1986 was notably cold at 5.8*C, and the coldest since 1922 I believe.  April really fits the trend seen in some other months as well - the lack of a really cold February for a long time sticks out as well; not had a really cold one since 1991.  January has also only been a significantly cold month once in the last 30 odd years as well and that was 2010.  Apart from 2013, there have also been very few cold Marches in the last 30 odd years as well.

Edited by North-Easterly Blast

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I think HP nudging in yet again will be dominant.  Will check RJS’ post before doing temp and rainfall....but we seem to have a semi permanent AZH

 

BFTP

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Ok I think April will be below average month and quite wet. I'm going for 6.5c and 120mm rain. Thanks

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