April 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[snowray]

Still waiting then.

 

I think 9.1c. hey we could start another competition on here if we have to wait much longer.

Edited May 2, 2019 by snowray

[Summer Sun]

1-week now since Hadley last updated either the main updater is on holiday or one or more stations hasn't reported

[J10]

I am still waiting for the official figures to compile this month's results.

[Roger J Smith]

I have just seen 9.1 (from 9.07) posted as final value for CET. No reliable EWP yet. 

[reef]

Yes, confirmed as 9.1C:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

[Don]

1 minute ago, reef said:

Yes, confirmed as 9.1C:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

That’s good.  Another warmer than average month, but a much smaller anomaly compared to February and March.

[J10]

Monthly
sundog the only player to get it spot on this month, with 5 players 0.1c out.

The 5 players 0.1c out are Weather26, nn2013, The PIT, Ed Stone and summer blizzard

Seasonal
A perfect 500pts for The PIT, with Ed Stone in 2nd and summer blizzard in 3rd.

Overall
Again The PIT leads overall but much tighter than the seasonal comp.

with Ed Stone again in 2nd and BornFromTheVoid in 3rd.

More details to follow later.

Edited May 7, 2019 by J10

[Roger J Smith]

From the table of entries, this appears to be the top CET scoring zone, subject to confirmation by J10:

Fcst ___ Forecaster (order of entry breaks ties)

 9.1 ___ Sundog (51) 

 9.2 ___ Weather26 (1) 

 9.2 ___ nn2013 (13) 

 9.0 ___ The PIT (21) 

 9.2 ___ EdStone (28, 4.5*) 

 9.0 ___ Summer Blizzard (35)

 9.3 ___ seaside 60 (42)

 8.9 ___ DAVID SNOW (44) 

 9.4 ___ JeffC (12)

 8.8 ___  Stargazer (25) 

 8.8 ___  AWD (40) 

 8.8 ___  Duncan McAlister (L1-3)

 8.8 ___  Born From the Void (L1-4) 

 

[J10]

13 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

From the table of entries, this appears to be the top CET scoring zone, subject to confirmation by J10:

Fcst ___ Forecaster (order of entry breaks ties)

 9.1 ___ Sundog (51) 

 9.2 ___ Weather26 (1) 

 9.2 ___ nn2013 (13) 

 9.0 ___ The PIT (21) 

 9.2 ___ EdStone (28, 4.5*) 

 9.0 ___ Summer Blizzard (35)

 9.3 ___ seaside 60 (42)

 8.9 ___ DAVID SNOW (44) 

 9.4 ___ JeffC (12)

 8.8 ___  Stargazer (25) 

 8.8 ___  AWD (40) 

 8.8 ___  Duncan McAlister (L1-3)

 8.8 ___  Born From the Void (L1-4) 

 

All perfectly correct.

[Roger J Smith]

UPDATE on the THREE ROBOTIC FORECASTERS

 

Dec 2018 __________________________________ Jan 2019 __________________________ Feb 2019 _______________

____FORECAST _ error __ rank __ points ________ FCST __ error __ rank __ points ________ FCST __ error __ rank __ points

Consensus_ 5.0 __ -1.9 _ 32 to 32 _ 52.3 _________3.5 ___ -0.5 ___16 to 18 _ 75.7 to 78.6 ___ 4.0 ___ -2.7 _ 33 to 37 _ 48.3 to 54.1

1989-2018*_4.9 __ -2.0 _ 33 to 33 _ 50.8 _________4.7 ___ +0.7 ___21 to 23 _ 68.6 to 71.4 ___ 4.9 ___ -1.8 _ 14 to 14 _ 81.3

1981-2010__4.6 __ -2.3 _ 42 to 44 _ 33.8 to 36.9 ___4.4 ___ +0.4 ___14 to 15 _ 80.0 to 81.4 ___ 4.4 ___ -2.3 _ 17 to 19 _ 74.2 to 77.0

 

March 2019 _________________________________ April 2019 _________________________ Average (5 months)

____FORECAST _ error __ rank __ points _________FCST __ error __ rank __ points _______ abs err __ rank ____ points

 consensus _ 6.9 __ --0.9 _ 29 to 33 _ 48.4 to 54.8 __ 8.4 ___ --0.7 __ 24 to 28 _ 55.9 to 62.3 __ 1.35 ___ 27 to 30 __ 56.1 to 60.4

1989-2018 _ 6.8 __ --1.0 _ 34 to 35 _ 46.2 to 47.8 ___8.8 ___ --0.3 ___ 9 to 13 _ 80.3 to 86.9 __ 1.16 ___ 22 to 24 __ 65.4 to 67.6

1981-2010 _ 6.6 __ --1.2 _ 39 to 39 _ 39.7 _________8.5 ___ --0.6 __ 20 to 23 _ 63.9 to 68.6 __ 1.36 ___ 26 to 28 __ 57.7 to 60.1

____________________________________________________________________________________________

The two normals did a little better than our consensus in April, and the most recent 30 year normal continues to outperform either consensus or 1981-2010 so far.

The average error (not absolute) of our forecasts is now -1.35 deg, and as a group we have been below the actual outcome five times in a row. The two normals were below the outcomes in four of five months and above in January. 

May won't change things very much as our consensus is just a bit above recent normal values. 

 

[NeilN]

I forgot to submit an entry for May, but almost close on for April - AMAZING!!! 

[J10]

Full Results

April 19 CET.xlsx

Edited May 7, 2019 by J10

[feb1991blizzard]

Disappointing to only be 16th with a 0.4 error, plus my 9.5 must have been really close until those blasted downward corrections, i take it J10 finished below me and others above me because of time of entry.

[J10]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Disappointing to only be 16th with a 0.4 error, plus my 9.5 must have been really close until those blasted downward corrections, i take it J10 finished below me and others above me because of time of entry.

Indeed in order to split ties, the earlier entry is ranked higher.

The impact is not that great over the course of a year's competition though.

[Weather-history]

Hadley EWP has April down as 46.4mm

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadukp/data/monthly/HadEWP_monthly_qc.txt

[The PIT]

Who's this PIT fella never eard of im.

[Roger J Smith]

As mentioned above,, Hadley EWP posted as 46.4 mm. I am working on the updated scoring tables, will post some updated annual contest results soon. The highest scoring forecasts for April are

 (1) DiagonalRedLine _ 47.0 mm ____10.0 points

 (2) Roger J Smith _ 45.0 mm _______ 9.8 points

 (3) Sleety ____45.0 mm (2nd entry) __9.7 points

 (t4) Daniel* _____50.0 mm (1d late) __ 9.2 points

 (t4) Earthshine __ 52.0 mm _________ 9.2 points

 (6) Ed Stone ____55.0 mm _________ 9.0 points

 (7) Feb91Blizzard 55.0 mm (2nd entry)_8.9 points

 (8) DAVID SNOW 55.0 mm (3rd entry)_ 8.8 points

 (9) AWD _______ 58.0 mm _________8.3 points

(10) seaside60 __ 58.0 mm (1d late, 2nd) 8.0 points

(11) virtualsphere_59.0 mm __________ 7.9 points

(12) stargazer ___59.0 mm (2nd entry) _ 7.8 points

___________________________________________________________

Only two other forecasts besides the two at 45.0 mm were below the actual value (BFTP had 25.0 mm and Emmett Garland 18.0 mm). 

Note on scoring, in this contest, you lose 0.1 point for order of entry but tied errors on both sides have tied scores (no examples this month). 

Notes: Scoring is also reduced by 0.2 per late day, so tenth place forecast lost 0.3 in total. Scoring then resumes as various ranks are filled in, the 8.0 took the place of 8.1 so the next score down is 7.9 ... because the 50.0 mm forecast was a late entry, it tied in points with the next lowest error of 52.0 mm. 

An annual update and the link to the excel scoring file will be posted in a while. 

Edited May 8, 2019 by Roger J Smith

[Roger J Smith]

Top annual scores in the EWP contest ...

 1. Reef ____________39.7

 2. Mulzy ___________37.9

 3. seaside60 _______ 37.8

 4. BornfromtheVoid __ 37.6

 5. BlastfromthePast __ 34.9

 6. Feb91Blizzard ____ 34.2

 7. Daniel* __________ 32.6

 8. weather-history ____32.3

 9. Roger J Smith _____31.8

10. CheesePuffScott __ 31.7

11. J10 _____________31.5

12. ThunderyWSh ____ 31.2

13. Stargazer ________31.0

14. DAVID SNOW ____29.9

15. Norrance ________29.6

16. EdStone ________ 29.1

17. Midlands Ice Age _ 28.3

_______________________________________________

Excel file of all scoring below ...

EWP20182019F.xlsx

Edited May 9, 2019 by Roger J Smith

[snowray]

On 02/05/2019 at 20:22, snowray said:

Still waiting then.

 

I think 9.1c. hey we could start another competition on here if we have to wait much longer.

Yes! Got that right at least, got to be worth a few bonus points.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

At 9.1c April 2019 shares the same mean CET with April's, 1995, 1896, 1825 and 1803.

Edited May 10, 2019 by Walsall Wood Snow

[Roger J Smith]

I checked the CET final values and found that 2019 reached "top ten" status for CET increases 15th or 16th to end of month. The actual values have been edited into the tables posted around 17th to 19th.