April 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 8.6C +0.7C above normal. Will continue to rise mainly due to mild nights but much at much slower rate. Not going to break any records or be anywhere neat the top ten warmest mainly due to the cold start.

Rainfall at 5mm which is the 2nd driest on record for us.

[Summer Sun]

9.3c to the 23rd

1.7 above the 61 to 90 average

1.2 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________

Current high this month 9.0c to the 23rd

Current low this month 5.9c to the 4th

[SunnyDazee]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

9.3c to the 23rd

1.7 above the 61 to 90 average

1.2 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________

Current high this month 9.0c to the 23rd

Current low this month 5.9c to the 4th

Wonder if we will get bang on 2018 with 9.8c

[Don]

2 hours ago, SunnyDazee said:

Wonder if we will get bang on 2018 with 9.8c

Could be a close call, although I think that will be the upper end.

Edited April 24, 2019 by Don

[SunnyDazee]

4 minutes ago, Don said:

Could be a close call, although I think that will be the upper end.

I think it’ll be 9.4/9.5, but the end of the month (from a few models) looks like picking up again and 1/2 17/18 degree days could make a difference

[Don]

6 hours ago, SunnyDazee said:

I think it’ll be 9.4/9.5, but the end of the month (from a few models) looks like picking up again and 1/2 17/18 degree days could make a difference

Whatever the final outcome, April will be another significantly above average month!

[SunnyDazee]

5 minutes ago, Don said:

Whatever the final outcome, April will be another significantly above average month!

When was the last below average month now? January was only 0.1 above, but still above

[LetItSnow!]

11 minutes ago, SunnyDazee said:

When was the last below average month now? January was only 0.1 above, but still above

March, 2018 was the last significantly cooler than average month. 4.9C, 0.9C below the 1901-2000 average, 1.7C below 1981-2010 average.

[SunnyDazee]

Just now, LetItSnow! said:

March, 2018 was the last significantly cooler than average month. 4.9C, 0.9C below the 1901-2000 average, 1.7C below 1981-2010 average.

I should have known that, shame on me! Thanks for letting me know though mate, the trend of warmer months don’t look like stopping atm

[Summer Sun]

9.4c to the 24th

1.8 above the 61 to 90 average

1.3 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________

Current high this month 9.4c to the 24th

Current low this month 5.9c to the 4th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 8.8C 0.8C above normal. Rainfall 7.9mm 12.5% of the monthly average.

Probably a brief pause on the upward trend temperature wise any drop over the weekend probably cancelled out by the last two days so 8.8C is going to be close to the final figure for us.

Saturday may push the rainfall up a bit but still going to be a dry month today's showers more threatening on the radar then in reality.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Below is the estimate of the CET over the next week based on the 06z GFS

The first graph is the forecast with daily max, min, mean and the rolling CET, as well as the 81-10 rolling mean. The second graph is the daily mean in relation the the daily high and low record values.

  

A finish of close to 9.5C before corrections looks likely from the 06z with the remainder of the month close to normal for the time of year. Best guesses at this stage between 9.1C and 9.5C.

[DAVID SNOW]

Run to run variation with the GFS, with its 12z now showing rather cool conditions this weekend(sat 7.5) (sun 8.5)

Edited April 25, 2019 by DAVID SNOW

[damianslaw]

A very contrasting month, a cold first half cancelled out by what looks like being a very above average second half, helped in large part by the period 18th - 24th with some very high CET values. So a month disguising the reality, its just that the warmth has been very warm compared to the colder episode.

We've had long periods of above average months in recent years, I think 2014 as a whole brought not one month below average.. just as we have now, 13 months on the trot.. There was a 12 month run between April 2006 and 2007 as well - but they have tended to break eventually.

 

Would be good to know the longest run of above average months compared to 61-90 average.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 8.9C +0.9C above normal. Rainfall 9.5mm 15% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

9.5c to the 25th

1.8 above the 61 to 90 average

1.3 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________

Current high this month 9.5c to the 25th

Current low this month 5.9c to the 4th

[BornFromTheVoid]

14 hours ago, damianslaw said:

A very contrasting month, a cold first half cancelled out by what looks like being a very above average second half, helped in large part by the period 18th - 24th with some very high CET values. So a month disguising the reality, its just that the warmth has been very warm compared to the colder episode.

We've had long periods of above average months in recent years, I think 2014 as a whole brought not one month below average.. just as we have now, 13 months on the trot.. There was a 12 month run between April 2006 and 2007 as well - but they have tended to break eventually.

 

Would be good to know the longest run of above average months compared to 61-90 average.

Depends on how you want to define below average. Anything below, or at least 0.5C below?

Using any negative anomaly, we have a 15 month run from April 2006 to June 2007
Using more than 0.5C below average, we get a 28 months from November 2003 to February 2006

[Don]

16 hours ago, damianslaw said:

I think 2014 as a whole brought not one month below average.. 

August 2014 was below average at 14.9c.  That was a blip, though in what was the warmest year on record for the CET at least.  I’m now starting to wonder if 2019 will beat 2014?!

[BornFromTheVoid]

Another interesting stat comes from years that had no months at least 1C or more below the 61-90 average. Up to 1997, there had been 13 such years, 9 of which came after 1900.
However, between 1998 and 2018, we've had 14 such years.

This means that years with no months at least 1C below average have gone from occurring roughly once every 3 decades up to 1997, to 2 out of every 3 years since then.

[Sunny76]

5 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Another interesting stat comes from years that had no months at least 1C or more below the 61-90 average. Up to 1997, there had been 13 such years, 9 of which came after 1900.
However, between 1998 and 2018, we've had 14 such years.

This means that years with no months at least 1C below average have gone from occurring roughly once every 3 decades up to 1997, to 2 out of every 3 years since then.

I initially thought the trend to warmer months started in December 1987. 

I know during 91 to 93 we still had some months below average. 

The 2000s still produced below average months. I remember 2001, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2004 and 05 produced at least one below average month. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

19 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

I initially thought the trend to warmer months started in December 1987. 

I know during 91 to 93 we still had some months below average. 

The 2000s still produced below average months. I remember 2001, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2004 and 05 produced at least one below average month. 

In general 1988 onward marks a step change. An image I made below shows this (CET recorded temperature ranked by colour, columns are mean, min and max

 

It's just with this particular metric, at least 1C below the 61-90 average, late 90s marks the step change.
Of the years you listed, 2004, 2005 and 2006, while they had 2 months each that were slightly below average, none of them had months at least 1C below.

Edited April 26, 2019 by BornFromTheVoid

[Don]

3 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

In general 1988 onward marks a step change. An image I made below shows this (CET recorded temperature ranked by colour, columns are mean, min and max

Strange how that came about just as the climate change threat became common knowledge!

Edited April 26, 2019 by Don

[damianslaw]

9 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Depends on how you want to define below average. Anything below, or at least 0.5C below?

Using any negative anomaly, we have a 15 month run from April 2006 to June 2007
Using more than 0.5C below average, we get a 28 months from November 2003 to February 2006

Gosh no months more than 0.5 degrees below average over a 28 month period is very noteworthy.

 

[DAVID SNOW]

On ‎21‎/‎04‎/‎2019 at 20:44, DAVID SNOW said:

A finish around 9c(after corrections) would be my estimate, as for rain totals, very dependant on local downpours.

This forecast now looking very likely.

[Weather-history]

10 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Gosh no months more than 0.5 degrees below average over a 28 month period is very noteworthy.

 

Remember that period well, it caused excitement at the time just to get a month just slightly below average. 

I think there were only 12 months in the 2000s that were at least 0.5C below the 1961-90 average. I think there have been 19 in the 2010s so far