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April 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
15 hours ago, damianslaw said:

 

Expecting a marked downward correction this month, which will peg final CET values closer to something near normal even if we see a notable mild second half, which could happen.

Interested to know how you know this- people seem to put forward predictions all the time about this but it's hard to know. Mainly because the official final figure is averaged out from a different set of stations than the running mean. So unless you have the data for those particular stations it's really hard to say. Especially when minima look like being above average from now on for most, and maxima well above average for the foreseeable future.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

If we do join the list of 2.0 increases after 16th (edit May 13th, we did, see table), please note, that isn't quite the same as second half, I just got into the investigation yesterday and took the provisional 16th value then from my data file the running CET on 16th of past years, but if we wanted to do first and second half that would need to be from the 15th CET to the 30th. Here's the same list revised to 15th and 30th (leaving out the 23rd midpoints) and searching the data for any additional 2.0 increases that might have happened. The following years were added thanks to the lower starting point of the 15th -- 1903 (2.2, had been 1.9 from 16th), 1785 (2.1, had been 1.7 from 16th) and 1789, 1830, 1858, 1902, 1964 and 1996 (all 2.0 and all were 1.6 to 1.8 from 16th to 30th). The revised data are in two columns since the entries are briefer. Theoretically some of the original entrants could be dropped if CET fell from 15th to 16th but this was not the case in any of the smaller increases near the boundary. The only year that lost any of its increase (due to 16th being colder than 15th) was 1885 (lost 0.1) -- that year is shown with an asterisk beside the increase. Each year has some symbol beside the increase, see the legend below the table for the various meanings (if you don't work them out intuitively).

 

INCREASES of 2.0 in CET from 15th to 30th APRIL (31 out of 248 cases including 2019)

 

YEAR ____ 15th __ 30th (increase)___________ YEAR ____ 15th __ 30th (increase)

 

1968 _____ 4.9 ___ 8.1 (+3.2)+++ ____________ 1994 _____ 5.8 ___ 8.1 (+2.3)+

1824 _____ 4.6 ___ 7.4 (+2.8)= ______________ 1810 _____ 6.0 ___ 8.2 (+2.2)=

1816 _____ 3.9 ___ 6.6 (+2.7)+ ______________ 1903 _____ 5.3 ___ 7.5 (+2.2)n

1840 _____ 7.0 ___ 9.7 (+2.7)++______________2000 _____ 5.6 ___ 7.8 (+2.2)=

1917 _____ 2.7 ___ 5.4 (+2.7)+ ______________ 1775 _____ 7.7 ___ 9.8 (+2.1)+

1958 _____ 4.7 ___ 7.4 (+2.7)= ______________ 1785 _____ 6.3 ___ 8.4 (+2.1)n

1975 _____ 5.6 ___ 8.3 (+2.7)+++ ____________ 1862 _____ 6.7 ___ 8.8 (+2.1)=

2019 _____ 9.1 ___ 6.4 (+2.7)++

1842 _____ 5.3 ___ 7.8 (+2.5)+ ______________ 1893 _____ 8.2 ___10.3 (+2.1)+

1885 _____ 5.2 ___ 7.7 (+2.5)* ______________ 1789 _____ 5.4 ___ 7.4 (+2.0)n

1984 _____ 5.6 ___ 8.1 (+2.5)+ ______________ 1830 _____ 6.9 ___ 8.9 (+2.0)n

1794 _____ 7.8 ___10.2 (+2.4)+ ______________1845 _____ 6.6 ___ 8.6 (+2.0)=

1839 _____ 4.0 ___ 6.4 (+2.4)+++ ____________ 1858 _____ 5.7 ___ 7.7 (+2.0)n

1924 _____ 4.5 ___ 6.9 (+2.4)+ ______________ 1902 _____ 5.5 ___ 7.5 (+2.0)=

1987 _____ 7.9 ___10.3 (+2.4)+++ ____________1964 _____ 6.7 ___ 8.7 (+2.0)n

1874 _____ 7.5 ___ 9.8 (+2.3)++ _____________ 1996 _____ 6.5 ___ 8.5 (+2.0)n

 

(note, the largest decrease was 2.0 in 1778 from 10.2 to 8.2. 

___________________________________________________

LEGEND -- symbols beside the increases

* smaller increase than 16th to 30th (by 0.1)

= same increase as 16th to 30th

+ larger increase than 16th to 30th (+0.1 for each + symbol)

n ... new entries in table that did not qualify 16th to 30th

_____________________________________________________________________________

2019 ended up tied with five other years for third largest CET increase 15th to 30th. 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

7.8c to the 18th

0.5 above the 61 to 90 average

Bang on the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________

Current high this month 8.1c to the 1st

Current low this month 5.9c to the 4th

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
11 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Up 0.4 :shok:

Wasn't expecting that much.

Pretty mad!

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 7.4C -0.3C below average. Rainfall Unchanged

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

8.1c to the 19th

0.8 above the 61 to 90 average

0.3 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________

Current high this month 8.1c to the 1st & 19th

Current low this month 5.9c to the 4th

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

The running CET will go up each day by an easy formula 

The daily temp is T

The running CET to previous day is CET

The date is d

The increase is (T-CET)/d

Example, it was 7.4 to 17th, 18th was 13.8

so the increase was (13.8-7.4)/18 or 6.4/18 which is 0.36

(with rounding this formula will not always hit the exact value)

... we can expect further rises of 0.3 per day, as long as daily CET values are above 14.

... the number of days increasing is one factor that reduces the rise later in the month, also the higher CET base reached.

A 13.0 applied to 9.0 on the 30th for example would give an increase of 4/30 or just 0.13 degree. 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

8.4c to the 20th

1.1 above the 61 to 90 average

0.6 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________

Current high this month 8.4c to the 20th

Current low this month 5.9c to the 4th

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 7.8C +0.1C above normal. Rainfall 5mm 7.9% of normal.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

The EWP tracker sits at 29 mm (to 19th) and the GFS accumulated precip to 30th from a grid average appears to be 30 mm more, so I have set the provisional at 59.2 mm to eliminate ties and that provisional scoring update is in the attached excel file. There is a new feature in the EWP scoring -- since Hadley adjust their numbers after a few months have passed, I have generated "ultimate scoring" that makes slight alterations to contest scoring. The main contest scoring remains in the usual position in the table (rows 21 to 84 at present), and the ultimate scoring is below the actual data and starts at row 251. Most of the order of scoring remains the same but a few people would move up or down a rank or even two with the adjusted amounts used to generate errors and points. 

In both scoring versions, Reef, then Born from the Void, seaside60 and Mulzy are top four annually. CheesepuffScott is fifth in the main contest scoring.

(Hadley EWP tracker) _ http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadukp/charts/charts.html

CET looks like it might stall at around 8.7 and after revisions would predict the month ends around 8.5. 

EWP20182019F.xlsx

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

8.7c to the 21st

1.3 above the 61 to 90 average

0.8 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________

Current high this month 8.7c to the 21st

Current low this month 5.9c to the 4th

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Should easily get over 9c by the 23rd at this rate, but could we see much of a drop in the last week I wonder?

Probably not.

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 8.1C +0.4C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
3 hours ago, snowray said:

Should easily get over 9c by the 23rd at this rate, but could we see much of a drop in the last week I wonder?

Probably not.

I think it will probably level off rather than drop. Nothing particularly cool is forecast although it will certainly feel considerably cooler from Thursday.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
4 hours ago, snowray said:

Should easily get over 9c by the 23rd at this rate, but could we see much of a drop in the last week I wonder?

Probably not.

Your probably right with probably not:oldlaugh:

I cant see it dropping either before months end, it will come down after corrections though.(imo)

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
7 hours ago, snowray said:

Should easily get over 9c by the 23rd at this rate, but could we see much of a drop in the last week I wonder?

Probably not.

I would expect a slight rise if anything, being the last week of April 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
9 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I would expect a slight rise if anything, being the last week of April 

Maxes by end of the week look like being quite close to average, around the 10-13 degree mark, minima will probably hold up unless there are any lengthy clear spells, so a possible very slight rise, otherwise a flatline given as you say we are at the end of the month, average running means are much higher end of April than at the start of the month, I think April along with October shows the greatest rate of change in running mean from start to finish.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Yes I think a likely flatline around 9.2/9,3c is likely.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

9.0c to the 22nd

1.5 above the 61 to 90 average

1.0 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________

Current high this month 9.0c to the 22nd

Current low this month 5.9c to the 4th

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield now on 8.4C +0.6C above normal. Rainfall 5mm 7.9% of the monthly average

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