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April 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
7 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Sorry for late one from me. I’ll go with 5.7c please.

wow that would be the coldest April for over a 100 years..??!! would certainly be something to talk about !!

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

8.1c to the 1st

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average

0.2c below the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________
 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

I believe 5.9-7.1 would make it the coldest since 1986. 

Personally I would like to see 6.5 or below for a 2C deviation.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

7.4c to the 2nd

0.7c above the 61 to 90 average

0.8c below the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________

Current high this month 8.1c to the 1st

Current low this month 7.4c to the 2nd

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
5 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

I believe 5.9-7.1 would make it the coldest since 1986. 

Personally I would like to see 6.5 or below for a 2C deviation.

It was 6.6 in April 1989 so 5.9 to 6.5 would make it coldest since 1986 and 6.6 would tie 1989, 6.7 to 7.1 would be coldest since 1989 as 2012 was next coldest at 7.2..

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Yeah that April made up for a fairly lacklustre winter in terms of below average temperatures. Wonder if we are heading the same way now as well. With that being said, would only take a solid warmer spell at the end of April to undo quite a lot of a cold first half it appears we will have.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

6.2c to the 3rd

0.2c below the 61 to 90 average

1.7c below the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________

Current high this month 8.1c to the 1st

Current low this month 6.2c to the 3rd

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

6.2c to the 5th

0.1c below the 61 to 90 average

1.4c below the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________

Current high this month 8.1c to the 1st

Current low this month 6.2c to the 3rd & 5th - No update to the 4th

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 5.5C -1.1C below normal. Rainfall 4.8mm 7.6% of the monthly average. Some warm weather for a few days before temps return to normal values so probably a big rise in the next few days. Latest GFS keeps the cold air at bay so pretty sure we will be above average by next weekend if not before.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

6.6c to the 6th

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average

1.0c below the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________

Current high this month 8.1c to the 1st

Current low this month 6.2c to the 3rd & 5th - No update to the 4th

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
5 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

6.6c to the 6th

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average

1.0c below the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________

Current high this month 8.1c to the 1st

Current low this month 6.2c to the 3rd & 5th - No update to the 4th

Just goes to show how much we’ve warmed during the last odd 30 years!

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
8 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

6.6c to the 6th

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average

1.0c below the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________

Current high this month 8.1c to the 1st

Current low this month 6.2c to the 3rd & 5th - No update to the 4th

Now that they have posted the values, the low for the month would be 5.9 to the 4th. 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
20 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

6.6c to the 6th

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average

1.0c below the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________

Current high this month 8.1c to the 1st

Current low this month 6.2c to the 3rd & 5th - No update to the 4th

Second half of the month will need to be pretty good to get us above average! 

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Posted
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Cool clear sunny weather all year.
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

Second half of the month will need to be pretty good to get us above average! 

Does it though, wasnt it the 10th warmest March, with hardly any what I call decent weather, in fact it was a nothing month with no rain last 2 weeks or more.

It just seems these days it doesnt take much and average temps seem to zoom up.
It does seem to me to be the min temps that keep bringing up higher monthly averages.

Take yesterday max was 13c here (17c top) and night time was 7c and its supposed to be cold, we are on the coast.

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Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
18 hours ago, Don said:

Just goes to show how much we’ve warmed during the last odd 30 years!

I don’t see any point in comparing against 61 to 90. Maybe we should be using 71 to 00 instead ?

Edited by prolongedSnowLover
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Posted
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Cool clear sunny weather all year.
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
12 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

I don’t see any point in comparing against 61 to 90. Maybe we should be using 71 to 00 instead ?

Even that is nearly 20 years out of date...

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny!
  • Location: Exeter
4 minutes ago, seaside 60 said:

Even that is nearly 20 years out of date...

Using the 1981-2010 mean CET hides the magnitude of the warming.  You'd be comparing the weather now to an already modified climate and would give the impression of a stable climate.

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

 I don’t see any point in comparing against 61 to 90. Maybe we should be using 71 to 00 instead ?

This really is a pointless argument, changing the climatological average temperature doesn't change a monthly mean temperature.

I think some people would rather use a more modern period to hide the warming trends the UK climate is clearly seeing....

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Posted
  • Location: Ayr
  • Location: Ayr
3 hours ago, Earthshine said:

Using the 1981-2010 mean CET hides the magnitude of the warming.  You'd be comparing the weather now to an already modified climate and would give the impression of a stable climate.

Yep, 1961-90, for this reason, I see as the gold standard.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 6.2C -0.5C below normal. Rainfall 5mm 7.9% of the monthly average. GFS suddenly swings to a colder few days so at the moment we should well below average by the weekend again if the GFS is correct.

On the subject of averages perhaps we should use 18th century averages instead show a even greater warming. It's pointless argument as 30 years is far too small time segment when you consider the life span of the planet. We tend to think too much in the way of human life span. Immortal Jelly fish will wonder what's all the fuss about as they witnessed it all previously.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
3 hours ago, Duncan McAlister said:

Yep, 1961-90, for this reason, I see as the gold standard.

Agreed.  Clearly shows the warming trend.

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Exeter
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny!
  • Location: Exeter
17 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Sunny Sheffield at 6.2C -0.5C below normal. Rainfall 5mm 7.9% of the monthly average. GFS suddenly swings to a colder few days so at the moment we should well below average by the weekend again if the GFS is correct.

On the subject of averages perhaps we should use 18th century averages instead show a even greater warming. It's pointless argument as 30 years is far too small time segment when you consider the life span of the planet. We tend to think too much in the way of human life span. Immortal Jelly fish will wonder what's all the fuss about as they witnessed it all previously.

The 30 year period was chosen for a reason.  Considering there were no humans recording temperatures for most of Earth's history it seems silly to even suggest that we consider it.  And I doubt "immortal" jellyfish are too concerned considering the fact they don't have a brain...

Besides, we can agree this is a cold April compared to modern standards.  However, I'm still not convinced the entire month will be poor.  The weather at this time of year is very volatile and it would be very short notice should any warmer spell emerge.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

I think globally 30 years is about the limit, but I'd love to see a 100yr mean used in the UK say 1900-2000. It's long enough that a couple of freak months either way won't impact the mean much and would really highlight the exceptional months when they come. 

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

We are using 1981-2010 CET normals in the contest, the use of 1961-1990 is strictly a Met Office choice and has no bearing on the contest. The 30-year normal used in the CET contest has only the marginal effect of determining whether or not you get a bonus point for correct anomaly. It probably has no influence on contest scoring. The normal period that we reference in the EWP contest (which is 1981-2010) has no influence on scoring at all. It is just given for guidance. 

In both the contests, when we open up with the invitation post, you can find all the different 30-year normals even including the most recent 30 years which would now be 1989-2018. They keep drifting a bit higher all the time with a few exceptions. 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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