April 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[emmett garland]

On 24/03/2019 at 18:30, emmett garland said:

8.4

 

[DAVID SNOW]

8.9.

55mm.

[Derecho]

I'll go for a CET of 9.9. A rather cold opening but I think an Azores low to the SW will push up towards the Scandi block, leaving the UK under mild and at times warm air  from the SSE whilst Eastern Europe is rather cold.

Edited March 31, 2019 by Quicksilver1989

[JBMWeatherForever]

I'm going for below average but quite dry overall.   7.1c 

[Had Worse]

7.6°C and 135mm rain

[mulzy]

8.7C and 88mm please.

[Ultima Thule]

8.1c and 68mm

[davehsug]

8.2C & 105mm please.

[sundog]

9.1c for me please.

[Godber 1]

6.6c and 84mm please.

[J10]

9.5c and 63mm

Edited March 31, 2019 by J10

[Kentish Man]

6.9C thanks

[Roger J Smith]

Summary of entries -- April 2019

All entries are shown with CET and where provided EWP forecasts. There are two columns with the CET consensus at the bottom of the first column. Then there is a separate ranked listing of EWP forecasts following the joint table of entries. Numbers in brackets refer to order of entry into the CET contest.

* When a CET forecast is revised but the EWP forecast is held, a second number appears with an asterisk. This will be a decimal to avoid confusion in the CET contest order. For example, EdStone revised his CET forecast which was first submitted as 5th entry. His revised submission was the 28th entry; that moved up all entries 6th to 28th previously to 5th to 27th and so the EWP entry is shown as 4.5 in order. 

14.0 __ 200.0 __ Lettucing Gutted (6) _______________  8.4 ___ 89.0 __ SteveB (4)

10.5 ___ 52.0 __ Evening Star (3) __________________  8.4 ___ 80.0 __ weather-history (26)

10.5 ___ 90.0 __ Brmbrmcar (9) ____________________ 8.4 ___ ----- __ Damianslaw (27)

10.2 ___ 47.0 __ DiagonalRedLine (23) ______________  8.4 ___ ----- __ Summer Sun (38)

10.0 ___ ----- __ Walsall Wood Snow (L1-5) ___________  8.4 ___ 18.0 __ Emmett Garland (43, 10.5*)

 9.9 ___ ----- __ Quicksilver1989 (45) ________________  8.3 ___ 85.0 __ Let It Snow! (2)

 9.7 ___ 63.0 __ CheesepuffScott (7) ________________  8.3 ___ ----- __ Man with Beard (34)

 9.7 ___ ----- __ Jonathan F. (10) ____________________ 8.3 ___ 89.0 __ Stationary Front (37)  

 9.5 ___ 55.0 __ Feb1991Blizzard (33) ________________8.2 ___ 59.0 __ virtualsphere (16)

 9.5 ___ 63.0 __ J10 (53) __________________________ 8.2 ___ 63.0 __ Norrance (36)

 9.4 ___ 80.0 __ JeffC (12)  ________________________ 8.2 __ 105.0 __ Davehsug (50)

 9.3 ___ 58.0 __ seaside 60 (42) ____________________ 8.2 __ 150.0 __ stewfox (L2-3) 

 9.2 ___ 81.4 __ Weather26 (1) _____________________ 8.1 ___ 92.0 __ shuggee (41)

 9.2 __ 100.0 __ nn2013 (13) _______________________ 8.1 ___ 68.0 __ Ultima Thule (49)

 9.2 ___ 55.0 __ EdStone (28, 4.5*) __________________ 7.9 __ 100.0 __ Pegg24 (20)

 9.1 ___ ----- __ Sundog (51) ________________________7.9 ___ ----- __ dancerwithwings (22)

 9.0 ___ 60.0 __ The PIT (21) _______________________ 7.8 ___ 75.0 __ Reef (29)

 9.0 ___ ----- __ Summer Blizzard (35) ________________ 7.7 ___ ----- __ snowray (18)

 8.9 ___ 55.0 __ DAVID SNOW (44) __________________ 7.7 ___ 77.0 __ Timmytour (24)

 8.8 ___ 59.0 __ Stargazer (25) ______________________ 7.6 __ 135.0 __ Had Worse (47)

 8.8 ___ 58.0 __ AWD (40) __________________________7.6 ___ 80.2 __ Polar Gael (L2-2)

 8.8 ___ ----- __ Duncan McAlister (L1-3) _______________7.4 ___ 95.0 __ Midlands Ice Age (30)

 8.8 ___ 60.0 __ Born From the Void (L1-4) _____________7.1 __ 130.0 __ IRememberAtlantic252 (17)

 8.8 ___64.7 __average 1989-2018  ___________________7.1 ___ ----- __ JBMWeatherForever (46)

 8.7 ___ 93.0 __ Bobd29 (5) _________________________ 7.0 ___ 81.0 __ jonboy (39)

 8.7 ___ ----- __ Mark Bayley (32) _____________________ 6.9 ___ ----- __ Kentish Man (54)

 8.7 ___ 88.0 __ Mulzy (48)  _________________________ 6.9 ___ 50.0 __ Daniel* (L1-2)

 8.6 ___ 64.6 __ Kirkcaldy Weather (11) ________________ 6.6 ___ 25.0 __ Blast From The Past (31)

 8.5 ___ 75.0 __ DR(S)NO (8)  _______________________ 6.6 ___ 84.0 __ Godber.1 (52)

 8.5 ___64.8 __average 1981-2010 ___________________ 6.5 ___ 45.0 __ Roger J Smith (14)

 8.5 ___ 90.0 __ Don (L1-1)  _________________________6.5 __ 120.0 __ Syed2878 (19)

 8.4 ___ 76.0 __ consensus _________________________6.1 ___ 45.0 __ SLEETY (15) 

________________________________________________ 5.7 ___ ----- __ Prolonged Snow Lover (L2-1)

___________________________________________________________________

___________________________________________________________________

54 on time forecasts, five since added are one day late, and three are two days late ... 62 forecasts, median (consensus) 8.4 C. 

late forecasts still accepted to end of 3rd April, will be added to table.

_________________________________________________________

EWP forecasts in order

200 _ LG .... ... 150 _ STEW (+2d) ... ... 135 _ HW ... ... 130 _ IRA252 ... ... 120 _ SYED ... ... 105 _ DAVEH ... ... 100 _ NN2013, PEGG

 95 _ MIA ... ... 93 _ BOB ... ... 92 _ SHUG ... ... 90 _ BRM, DON (+1d) ... ...  89 _ STEV, SF ... ... 88 _ MUL ... ...85 _ LIS  ... ... 84 GODBER

 81.4 _ wx26 ... ... 81 _ JON ... ... 80.2 _ PG (+2d) ... ... 80 _ JEFF, Wx-H ... ... 77 _ TIM ... ... 75.0 _ con  .. 75 _ DR(S)NO, REEF ... ... 68 _ ULT

 64.6 _ KW ... ... 63 _ CPS, NORR, J10 ... ... 60 _ PIT, BFTV (+1d) ... ... 59 _ VIRT, STAR ... ... 58 _ AWD, SEA ... ... 55 _ EDS, FEB91, DAVS 

 52 _ EVE ... ... 50 _ DAN* (+1d) ... ... 47 _ DRL ... ... 45 _ RJS, SLEETY .. ...  25 _ BFTP ... ... 18 _ EG

_______________________________________

42 on-time forecasts, five added that are late, total so far 47 forecasts, median 75.0 mm. 

late forecasts still accepted to end of 3rd April. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 2, 2019 by Roger J Smith

[Don]

S*d it, I’m late!  8.5C and 90mm, please.

[Daniel*]

Late oops

Probably a tale of two halves overall cool ish 6.9C particularly due to low minima quite dry ish 50mm.

[Roger J Smith]

April CET extremes and 1981-2010 averages, extreme values of running CET

 

DATE ___ MAX yr _________ MIN yr ________ CET __cum CET ____ Max CET __ Min CET

01 Apr ... 13.3 (1995) ........--0.2 (1917) _________8.3 _____ 8.3 ____ 13.3 (1995) __--0.2 (1917)
02 Apr ... 13.9 (1835) ........--0.5 (1917) _________8.1 _____ 8.2 ____ 13.1 (2011) __--0.35 (1917)

03 Apr ... 15.0 (1926,1946) ..--0.5 (1799) _______ 7.4 _____ 7.9 ____ 12.9 (1926) __--0.1 (1917)
04 Apr ... 15.6 (1946)......... 1.0 (1809&1830) ____ 7.1 _____ 7.7 ____ 13.6 (1946) __ 0.5 (1799&1917)
05 Apr ... 13.3 (1857) ......... 0.4 (1911) _________ 7.1 _____ 7.6 ____ 12.9 (1926) __ 1.2 (1917)

06 Apr ... 15.1 (2011) ......... 0.8 (1911) _________ 7.5 _____ 7.6 ____ 12.8 (1926) __ 1.4 (1917)
07 Apr ... 14.7 (1859) ......... 1.0 (1839) _________ 7.3 _____ 7.5 ____ 12.6 (1926) __ 1.7 (1917)
08 Apr ... 12.5 (1798) ......... 2.4 (1780) _________ 7.2 _____ 7.5 ____ 12.2 (1926) __ 2.0 (1917)
09 Apr ... 13.7 (2017) ......... 1.4 (1812) _________ 7.5 _____ 7.5 __ 11.8 (1926,2011) _ 2.2 (1917)
10 Apr ... 13.5 (1928) ......... 0.5 (1837) _________ 8.2 _____ 7.6 ____ 11.8 (2011) __ 2.1 (1917)

11 Apr ... 16.0 (1869) ......... 1.3 (1978) _________ 8.0 _____ 7.6 ____ 11.7 (2011) __ 2.1 (1917)

12 Apr ... 14.4 (1939) ......... 1.1 (1879) _________ 7.8 _____ 7.6 ____ 11.4 (2011) __ 2.3 (1917)
13 Apr ... 14.6 (1792) ......... 1.1 (1816) _________ 7.5 _____ 7.6 ____ 11.2 (1778) __ 2.4 (1917)
14 Apr ... 16.1 (1869) ......... 0.5 (1966) _________ 8.0 _____ 7.7 ____ 11.0 (2011) __ 2.6 (1917)
15 Apr ... 16.3 (1945) ......... 1.4 (1966) _________ 8.3 _____ 7.7 ____ 11.0 (2011) __ 2.6 (1917)

16 Apr ... 17.0 (1945) ......... 2.0 (1892) _________ 8.5 _____ 7.7 ____ 11.0 (2011) __ 2.8 (1917)
17 Apr ... 14.9 (1865) ......... 2.1 (1793&1812) ____ 8.4 _____ 7.8 __ 11.0 (1945.2011) _ 2.8 (1917)
18 Apr ... 17.0 (2018) ......... 1.7 (1807) _________ 8.1 _____ 7.8 ____ 11.2 (1945) __ 3.0 (1917)
19 Apr ... 17.6 (2018) .........--0.2 (1772) _________8.1 _____ 7.8 ____ 11.4 (1945) __ 3.2 (1837)
20 Apr ... 16.6 (1893) ......... 2.3 (1849) _________ 8.4 _____ 7.8 ____ 11.5 (1945) __ 3.3 (1837)

21 Apr ... 16.4 (1893) ......... 2.4 (1936) _________ 9.2 _____ 7.9 __ 11.5 (1945.2011) _ 3.3 (1837)
22 Apr ... 15.4 (2011) ......... 3.4 (1778) _________ 9.4 _____ 8.0 ____ 11.6 (2011) __ 3.5 (1837)
23 Apr ... 15.9 (1874) ......... 2.6 (1908) _________ 9.7 _____ 8.1 ____ 11.8 (2011) __ 3.6 (1837)
24 Apr ... 15.3 (2007) ......... 0.5 (1908) _________ 9.7 _____ 8.1 ____ 11.9 (2011) __ 3.7 (1837)
25 Apr ... 15.9 (1821) ......... 1.8 (1908) ________ 10.1 _____ 8.2 ____ 11.9 (2011) __ 3.9 (1837)

26 Apr ... 16.1 (1928) ......... 3.3 (1981) ________ 10.1 _____ 8.3 ____ 11.8 (2011) __ 4.1 (1837)
27 Apr ... 16.5 (1866) ......... 2.7 (1919) ________ 10.1 _____ 8.3 ____ 11.8 (2011) __ 4.2 (1837)
28 Apr ... 16.9 (1775) ......... 3.0 (1826) _________ 9.9 _____ 8.4 ____ 11.7 (2011) __ 4.4 (1837)
29 Apr ... 19.7 (1775) ......... 0.7 (1856) _________ 9.9 _____ 8.4 ____ 11.7 (2011) __ 4.5 (1837)
30 Apr ... 17.4 (1775) ......... 2.6 (1945) ________ 10.5 _____ 8.5 ____ 11.8 (2011) __ 4.7 (1701&1837)*

* Min CET on 30th from monthly averages, no daily data for 1701 otherwise. 

Edited April 1, 2019 by Roger J Smith

[Duncan McAlister]

Late guess of 8.8 for me please.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Late, ooops. 8.8C and 60mm, thanks

[Walsall Wood Snow]

Apologies for been late but 10.0c please

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Sorry for late one from me. I’ll go with 5.7c please.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Looks to me like we should be in the low to mid 7s after the first 1/3 of the month, and somewhere in the 6s after week one. Will do a full update later if I get the time.

[Polar Gael]

A rather late 7.6C and 80.2mm for me please. 

[stewfox]

Probably too late to post but

8.2c 150mm

 

[snowray]

Never seen so many late entries....

[Roger J Smith]

2 hours ago, stewfox said:

Probably too late to post but

8.2c 150mm

 

Not too late at all, entries accepted until end of the 3rd. 

All late entries will be incorporated into the summary of entries posted earlier.