April 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[pegg24]

7.9c 100mm please 

[The PIT]

A drift away from a cold start on the models under way so I'm going for 9C and 60mm of rain.

[Dancerwithwings]

7.9c cheer’s

[BlueHedgehog074]

Probably a cool start, but maybe becoming increasingly warm with lots of dry weather about. 

10.2*C, and 47mm rainfall, please. Cheers. 

[Timmytour]

If March makes it to 8.2C , this year will be tracking 1750 very closely!   I'll go for a continuance of that at 7.7C for April and to keep it all 7s I'll got for 77mm as well 

[Stargazer]

8.8 and 59mm please.

Edited March 29, 2019 by Stargazer

[Weather-history]

8.4C and 80mm

We seem to be alternating, in terms of rainfall, of periods of excessive and lack of rainfall at the moment. 

[damianslaw]

April might do another January, but the other way round, a colder than first half cancelled out by a milder than second half - so ending up near average. I will go with 8.4 degrees - given the bias we seem stuck in for milder than colder to win out.

However, there is a high chance we may end up below the 61-90 average, depending on how cold the first 10 days are, given today's model output it could be a notably below start to April, low maxima and minima.

Expect a warm up from mid-month though - could be a bit like last year, but I suspect not the same degree of warmth. Here's hoping anyway!, especially given how late Easter is this year.

Edited March 30, 2019 by damianslaw

[Methuselah]

On 20/03/2019 at 10:13, Ed Stone said:

10.2C and 55mm please, Roger.

I'll adjust downward to 9.2C, Roger, but stick to 55mm rainfall..

[reef]

Slightly cooler and wetter than average:

7.8C and 75mm

[Roger J Smith]

Here's what has happened in the past when the first half of April is cold (5.0 or lower average CET) ...

I have listed the cases in chronological order (in the daily data period 1772 to 2018) to make any trends over time more apparent. And I allowed in first half 5.1 to 6.0 since 1981 to give more cases to compare. Cases are arranged in groups of 40 years (starting 1772-1811, last one is 1972-present). 

YEAR _ Apr CET (15th and 30th)

1780 _ 4.4 to 6.3 ... ... 1782 _ 4.9 to 5.2 ... ... 1784 _ 3.8 to 5.7 ... ... 1790 _ 4.6 to 6.1

... ... ... ... 1793 _ 4.9 to 6.2 ... ... 1799 _ 4.2 to 5.4 ... ... 1806 _ 4.9 to 6.8 ... ... 1809 _ 4.6 to 5.2

1816 _ 3.9 to 6.6 ... ... 1824 _ 4.6 to 7.4 ... ... 1837 _ 2.9 to 4.7 ... ... 1839 _ 4.0 to 6.4

1888 _ 4.9 to 6.2

1917 _ 2.6 to 5.4 ... ... 1922 _ 4.8 to 5.5 ... ... 1924 _ 4.5 to 6.9

1958 _ 4.6 to 7.4 ... ... 1968 _ 4.9 to 8.1 ... ... 1970 _ 4.7 to 6.7

1983 _ 5.6 to 6.8 ... ... 1984 _ 5.6 to 8.1 ... ... 1986 _ 4.4 to 5.8 ... ...

... ... ... ... 1994 _ 5.8 to 8.1 ... ... 2000 _ 5.6 to 7.8 ... ... 2013 _ 5.8 to 7.5

_________________________________________________________________________

There were 21 cases in all (5.0 or lower), the most recent 1986, and five recent additions in the 5.1-6.0 range which probably had several dozen examples before 1981.

Of these 26 in total, none rose less than the 0.3 rise of 1782 (the second half average was 5.5). Few got past 7.0 but more recently there has been a trend towards a more complete reversal of the cold start, the five added cases averaged a final value of 7.7 C and a second half average of 9.6 which is about average. (1975 not shown went from 5.6 to 8.3 -- second half 11.0 -- and 1978 not shown went from 5.4 on 15th to 6.5 on 30th). 

Interesting that the year most removed from a first half of 5.0 or lower is not this year (33 years since one occurred) but 1887 (48 years since one occurred). April 1879 did reach 5.0 by the 18th (falling steadily to that point) and only recovered to 5.7. This was the only April that dropped to 5.0 after being above that value on the 15th. April 1812 fell to 5.1 on the 20th and ended at 5.5. In April 1936 the low point was 5.2 on the 23rd with a recovery to 6.3 C. A notable cold spell in late April 1908 brought that month as low as 5.6 by 26th-27th (its lowest point), finishing on 6.0. 

1808 had reached 7.1 by the 16th and lost ground every day after that finishing on 5.8. 

So there's some statistical background if you buy into the cold start now being shown on the GFS model (looks to me like 5.2 to 5.5 range by 15th). 

Edited March 30, 2019 by Roger J Smith

[Midlands Ice Age]

Coolish  7.4C  and a dampish 95mms please.

MIA

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

On 27/03/2019 at 21:01, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

I think HP nudging in yet again will be dominant.  Will check RJS’ post before doing temp and rainfall....but we seem to have a semi permanent AZH

 

BFTP

Ok, I think we are seeing signs of a cold April with general E to NE flow (blinking typical) but also very dry. So 6.6 and 25mm

 

BFTP

[Mark Bayley]

8.7c please

[feb1991blizzard]

9.5c and 55mm of rainfall please.

[Man With Beard]

8.3C

[summer blizzard]

9.0C

[Norrance]

8.2C and 63 mms please.

[Stationary Front]

8.3 with 89mm please

[Summer Sun]

8.4c for me please

[jonboy]

I'll risk 7.0 and 81mm

[AWD]

8.8c and 58mm please

[shuggee]

8.1°C and 92mm

[SLEETY]

Looking like a cold start to April gfs hinting at exceptionally cold air moving in from the NE,, with minus 20 air over scandi but it's in fl for now ... 

[seaside 60]

9.3c

58mm

Please