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Storm Freya - Atlantic storm 6


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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Four gusts over 50 mph we had a max of 54 mph. 

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Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .

The Met Office were spot on about the relative potency of Freya. They also got it right with the Yellow warning. Had it been a Monday it's possible they might have raised it but it was probably on the cusp. A decent little storm, with some powerful back edge snow.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/03/04/uk-weather-storm-freya-brings-80mph-gusts-heavy-snow-causes/

Well done to the Met Office. I maintain that for short range forecasting in the UK they are the gold standard and nothing else comes close. As it should be really.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

Top gust of 58mph here with 50mph generally across the Midlands.

Call me old fashioned but years ago this would of just been a windy day. Now we call these storms as we lean towards more american type forecasts. In my opinion a storm is when gusts inland widely reach 60-70mph with exposed locations hitting 80-90mph.

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

The squally wave down here was windier than Freya, managed a 60 mph gust from that, bit Freya was never going to effect the far south east much anyway, max gust from Freya was 54 mph.

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In my humble opinion, referring back to the debate about the potency of this storm earlier in the thread, from being just a viewer of this website for some time, posters seems to fall into two sides here, those who like to over dramatise the situations/forecasts and those where nothing bothers them unless its a 150mph+ storm. With not much moderate grounded opinion in between.

Personally I agree with this - 

"Call me old fashioned but years ago this would of just been a windy day. Now we call these storms as we lean towards more american type forecasts. In my opinion a storm is when gusts inland widely reach 60-70mph with exposed locations hitting 80-90mph"

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

At the end of the day a very minor affair here and four gusts over 50 mph in less than hour doesn't make a storm in my book. Interesting how the forecasts changed later in the day. Netweather local forecast went from under playing it to getting it correct while the Met Office local forecast went the other way and went from being correct to being incorrect.

Anyways GFS has more potent storm shown this evening which if it comes off will make Freya look a mere feline cat by Sunday morning. Too far out to get excited yet though.

So far for us March in like a lion cub which maybe followed by Daddy lion a few days later.

For me a storm has to be lasting four hours or more has regular gusts to over 50 mph and pushing into 60mph+. A strong storm is gusting over 60y and some nudging into 70's

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Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .
22 hours ago, TEITS said:

In my opinion a storm is when 

Fortunately we rely on something more empirical.

The Met Office were spot on. Gusts in the Yellow Warning quadrant were widely 50-60mph, occasionally more, with a peak gust of 76mph.

The tendency to put the boot in to the Met Office by armchair weather lorists is not much better than tedious trolling. It's better that they err on the side of caution because some weather patterns cause injuries. But they're damned if they do and damned if they don't and people seem to expect them to announce whether the wind will touch 52mph or 53 mph across their chimney stack, or if the snowflakes falling will settle at 2.1 inches in depth or 2.2 inches. Then they get criticised by buffoons getting stuck for the night on Bodmin Moor when the Met have issued an Amber warning for rain turning to snow in the South-west.

You can't make this stuff up.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
11 hours ago, West is Best said:

No it didn't.

You read our local forecast then West? If you did you clearly misread it as it changed at late in the evening to mid forties only which was wrong while net weather went the other way.

Anyway the Sunday blast has disappeared so still waiting for a proper storm.

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Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .

I'd like to see (empirical) evidence please. What your 'local' Met Office altered and what they said. A screen print would be interesting to see, to assess.

On the GFS, this is exactly what I mean about them forever getting Atlantic storms wrong. Here's the Sunday chart on last night's 18z run:

163483457_ScreenShot2019-03-06at07_49_52.thumb.png.5a2ff28521dc520ba6393266b3163479.png

See that whopping storm? 6 hours later it's completely vanished:

1011779095_ScreenShot2019-03-06at07_50_04.thumb.png.2cf4f0769320b5c41e501c2b75e950d1.png

We see this time and again and it's why we cannot trust the GFS on Atlantic storms. The Met Office every time for these shores.

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Do you work for the Met Office or something lol? I like the Met Office but they have got things wrong probably as many times as anyone else. I think any decent forecaster would review all data presented in front of them, pretty narrow view to be met office, met office, met office all the time.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
On 05/03/2019 at 07:46, West is Best said:

Fortunately we rely on something more empirical.

The Met Office were spot on. Gusts in the Yellow Warning quadrant were widely 50-60mph, occasionally more, with a peak gust of 76mph.

The tendency to put the boot in to the Met Office by armchair weather lorists is not much better than tedious trolling. It's better that they err on the side of caution because some weather patterns cause injuries. But they're damned if they do and damned if they don't and people seem to expect them to announce whether the wind will touch 52mph or 53 mph across their chimney stack, or if the snowflakes falling will settle at 2.1 inches in depth or 2.2 inches. Then they get criticised by buffoons getting stuck for the night on Bodmin Moor when the Met have issued an Amber warning for rain turning to snow in the South-west.

You can't make this stuff up.

During the so called storm the wind gusts were generally between 40-50mph in inland locations such as the midlands with the occasional gust between 50-60mph. I still maintain this does not make a storm in my opinion.

We have to be careful because if we see warnings for trivial weather events i.e warnings for 2cm of snow from snow showers. What will happen is the general public will become complacent and no longer heed the warnings when something more significant occurs.

By the way my comments were not just about the Met Office but generally across many platforms i.e newspapers, websites, forums etc.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
On ‎05‎/‎03‎/‎2019 at 07:46, West is Best said:

Fortunately we rely on something more empirical.

The Met Office were spot on. Gusts in the Yellow Warning quadrant were widely 50-60mph, occasionally more, with a peak gust of 76mph.

The tendency to put the boot in to the Met Office by armchair weather lorists is not much better than tedious trolling. It's better that they err on the side of caution because some weather patterns cause injuries. But they're damned if they do and damned if they don't and people seem to expect them to announce whether the wind will touch 52mph or 53 mph across their chimney stack, or if the snowflakes falling will settle at 2.1 inches in depth or 2.2 inches. Then they get criticised by buffoons getting stuck for the night on Bodmin Moor when the Met have issued an Amber warning for rain turning to snow in the South-west.

You can't make this stuff up.

I do think the Met Office missed the boat with their snow warning for far north of England/Borders on Sunday evening which was associated with northern flank of Freya, was far too short notice issuing it at 8.42pm when it was already snowing heavily across Cumbria, as evidenced by someone I know on FB who lives in northern Cumbria posting heavy snow video before the warning was issued.

Met Office yellow warning for snow issued at 20.42:

Cars struggling on a major A road in northern Cumbria

 

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
2 hours ago, Nick F said:

I do think the Met Office missed the boat with their snow warning for far north of England/Borders on Sunday evening which was associated with northern flank of Freya, was far too short notice issuing it at 8.42pm when it was already snowing heavily across Cumbria, as evidenced by someone I know on FB who lives in northern Cumbria posting heavy snow video before the warning was issued.

Met Office yellow warning for snow issued at 20.42:

Cars struggling on a major A road in northern Cumbria

 

I agree there, however logic also plays a part, people do not use it anymore. If I lived up north, especially if I'm going to be driving on high ground, like in Cumbria, or the north York Moors, I would be prepared for snow to fall, if I new I was on the northern side of a low pressure, at this time of year. People just do not bother with basic old weather lore any more.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
10 hours ago, West is Best said:

I'd like to see (empirical) evidence please. What your 'local' Met Office altered and what they said. A screen print would be interesting to see, to assess.

On the GFS, this is exactly what I mean about them forever getting Atlantic storms wrong. Here's the Sunday chart on last night's 18z run:

163483457_ScreenShot2019-03-06at07_49_52.thumb.png.5a2ff28521dc520ba6393266b3163479.png

See that whopping storm? 6 hours later it's completely vanished:

1011779095_ScreenShot2019-03-06at07_50_04.thumb.png.2cf4f0769320b5c41e501c2b75e950d1.png

We see this time and again and it's why we cannot trust the GFS on Atlantic storms. The Met Office every time for these shores.

Too late now and you know full well that it is. Instead of suggesting that I'm a lair how about taking it as face value.

Also do you remember the storm that never was. A storm that every model ditched even there own and they still ran with the warning. The met office does get it wrong at times and thats a fact of life.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
9 hours ago, TEITS said:

We have to be careful because if we see warnings for trivial weather events i.e warnings for 2cm of snow from snow showers. What will happen is the general public will become complacent and no longer heed the warnings when something more significant occurs.

 

They already have and tend to ignore them. True it doesn't help when papers run with headlines of the deepest snow since the ice age headlines which somehow get attributed to the met office when they didn't even say it.

The met also got badly burn't over the Barbecue summer which was a throw away comment made by their media chappie and wasn't really stated that way in the actual summer forecast.

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Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .
On 06/03/2019 at 18:41, The PIT said:

Too late now and you know full well that it is. Instead of suggesting that I'm a lair how about taking it as face value.

Also do you remember the storm that never was. A storm that every model ditched even there own and they still ran with the warning. The met office does get it wrong at times and thats a fact of life.

I think if you're going to criticise the Met Office for, amongst other things, altering their 'local' forecast and then being inaccurate with it you really ought to be able to back that assertion up.

Storm Freya gusted to 76mph and was suitably named and suitably warned by the Met Office. It wasn't overly dramatic and they never said it would be.

Edited by West is Best
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Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .
On 06/03/2019 at 09:20, TEITS said:

During the so called storm the wind gusts were generally between 40-50mph in inland locations such as the midlands with the occasional gust between 50-60mph. I still maintain this does not make a storm in my opinion.

We have to be careful because if we see warnings for trivial weather events i.e warnings for 2cm of snow from snow showers. What will happen is the general public will become complacent and no longer heed the warnings when something more significant occurs.

By the way my comments were not just about the Met Office but generally across many platforms i.e newspapers, websites, forums etc.

Still, thankfully folk on Net weather have your forecasting skills on which to rely, Dave. When it comes to spotting an Easterly you're way ahead of the game.

The Yellow warning area for Storm Freya was appropriate and commensurate, especially in the south-west where it gusted to 76mph. Their actual forecast wind strengths in the relevant zones were correct.

 

Edited by West is Best
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
11 hours ago, West is Best said:

Still, thankfully folk on Net weather have your forecasting skills on which to rely, Dave. When it comes to spotting an Easterly you're way ahead of the game.

The Yellow warning area for Storm Freya was appropriate and commensurate, especially in the south-west where it gusted to 76mph. Their actual forecast wind strengths in the relevant zones were correct.

 

Im not disputing their forecasting skills. My point is do wind speeds of 40-50mph really warrant warnings? These kind of wind gusts are common during the Autumn/winter months. If the Met Office keep issuing unnecessary warnings then the general public will become complacent and ignore warnings that are needed.

This is my last comment on this matter and we shall have to agree to disagree.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy autumn, hot and sunny summer and thunderstorms all year round.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
3 hours ago, TEITS said:

Im not disputing their forecasting skills. My point is do wind speeds of 40-50mph really warrant warnings? These kind of wind gusts are common during the Autumn/winter months. If the Met Office keep issuing unnecessary warnings then the general public will become complacent and ignore warnings that are needed.

This is my last comment on this matter and we shall have to agree to disagree.

 

I disagree for the simple fact that 40-50mph winds are known to bring some branches off trees and a few tiles off roofs.

Don't know about you but I Wouldn't want to be outside near trees or buildings when thats happening.

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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian
5 hours ago, TEITS said:

Im not disputing their forecasting skills. My point is do wind speeds of 40-50mph really warrant warnings? These kind of wind gusts are common during the Autumn/winter months. If the Met Office keep issuing unnecessary warnings then the general public will become complacent and ignore warnings that are needed.

This is my last comment on this matter and we shall have to agree to disagree.

 

Although there is now a whole new thread to look at how warnings are created/output/understood. What would help more, how the process could be improved so that it works better, if needed. Lots of different opinions, so ideal for a discussion thread. Next up #StormGareth 

 

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