Storm Freya - Atlantic storm 6

[West is Best]

Interestingly, the new GFS FV3.0 Para which will replace the existing GFS has the low slightly more intense and wind gusts correspondingly stronger.

I love the GFS and think it's the gold standard for mid range but I think it's behind the Met Office for short-range local UK forecasting. The improvements to the GFS modelling will hopefully help iron out some of the problems they have crossing the Atlantic.

GFS 6z main:

GFS FV3.0:

GFS 6z main:

GFS FV3.0:

GFS 6z main:

GFS 6z FV3.0:

[knocker]

4 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

You mean to say that the Metoffice don't formulate forecasts based on Netweather opinions?

It's a major failing that they have failed to address despite frequent, eloquently put, advice

[West is Best]

Storm Freya continues to intensify and deepen. It's now at 984 mb, a full 8mb deeper than GFS forecast on their latest model:

Edited March 3, 2019 by West is Best

[johnholmes]

Interesting to watch just what track the low will take. The best short term method of forecasting it is to look at how much the pressure is falling at stations ahead of it. Also once the pressure rises can be seen behind it then an even better idea of its track. No models just seat of the pants old fashioned forecasting.

Not easy to judge at the moment, and of course plotting the actual track  is also a good guide for the next 3-4 hours.

 

Best 'guess for the moment is between Rosslare and Aberporth then NE.

Account needs to be taken though of the deepening effect which tends to turn the low to the left slightly.

 

Edited March 3, 2019 by johnholmes

[Gray-Wolf]

Thanks for that West!

Still a couple of hours before that SW quad hauls itself on shore and Freya will be deepening all the while.

[wimblettben]

Its already starting to get going here though its just windy with 20mph and possibly 30mph gusts.

 

Fully expecting to beat my highest wind yet here in on one of the hills here near brongest of 46mph.

[knocker]

Sat image at 1125

[Mapantz]

I registered 43mph circa 8am, and a wind speed of 21mph. There's been a lull since, but it's slowly increasing again.

A few fence posts/panels to fix this week.

[The PIT]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

I presume that you are suggesting that professional meteorologists were not aware of this and were once again ignoring advice from the sages of NW

I actually used advice from a former met office employee who posts on here. His formula worked perfectly.

This was actually backed up by events on the day and as events unfolded the forecasts didn't match what was happening on the ground and failed to update to reflect this.

 

[Supacell]

It is quite unusual for my area to get winds of the speed being forecast by the Met Office. A 65mph wind around here will be a rare sight. I think the last time was Storm Doris on 23rd Feb 2017 and she caused quite a lot of trees to come down and disruption. Not very often the strongest swathe of winds from a storm cut through here but looking like I am well placed for this one. Or badly, depending on ones point of view.

[The PIT]

Well I'm just waiting for the rain to get going. I can then soap the car down and let it rinse naturally.

[West is Best]

Now down to 981mb:

[knocker]

Midday

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-2.56,55.03,2223

[Blessed Weather]

100km/h (62mph) gust at St. Mary's, Scilly Isles, at 12.00.

http://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/temps-reel.php?region=uk&duree=1

[stevofunnelcl]

if it was really going to be that bad, then Met Office would have upgraded to Amber.

you can't say Met Office have won on anything yet, since it's yet to happen

for my location they are forecasting nothing higher than a 54mph gust, and i doubt it'll reach that.

seen stronger winds a number of times earlier this winter

[The PIT]

GFS 06 as eased back slightly although still nothing of note for us. Local forecast from the met has gone to 57 mph from 49mph. Netweather still saying nay lad at 46 mph. Does net weather use the GFS for it's forecast ???

[West is Best]

I don't think the Met Office aim to 'win' anything. 

If that was directed my way, the point is that they have evidently got this right over the GFS, which had the low 11mb shallower and much less intense, which is pretty inaccurate when you're producing the forecast as recently as 6z. 

The Met Office forecast of this morning is one I imagine they will stick to for the time being.

"Storm Freya is expected to push quickly north-east across parts of England and Wales through Sunday afternoon and evening, before clearing into the North Sea through the early part of Monday. Gusts of 55-65 mph are likely widely, with the potential for gusts of 70-80 mph for coastal parts of Cornwall, northern Devon, Wales and north-west England. The very highest winds look likely to occur on Sunday evening over parts of coastal Wales."

BBC version

16h00:

19h00:

 

 

[West is Best]

It bears repeating that for short-range forecasting for these Isles nothing beats the Met Office.

[Super_Uwe]

Wind and rain started to pick up in Salcombe in the last 10-15min.

Nothing particularly notable as yet but expecting it to be a bit lively in the next couple of hours 

[Snowyowl9]

This storm is going to wind itself up much more yet as it tracks across.

But we`ll see,its a wet sunday for sure.

[West is Best]

21 minutes ago, stevofunnelcl said:

for my location they are forecasting nothing higher than a 54mph gust, and i doubt it'll reach that.

 

53mph just now at Cardinham down the road from you. Pretty confident somewhere in north Devon & Cornwall will exceed 60mph and maybe much higher than that.

[West is Best]

13h00 Just off the southern tip of south-west Ireland at 982mb:

[alexisj9]

23 minutes ago, The PIT said:

GFS 06 as eased back slightly although still nothing of note for us. Local forecast from the met has gone to 57 mph from 49mph. Netweather still saying nay lad at 46 mph. Does net weather use the GFS for it's forecast ???

Yes

[cheshireoak]

Think WiB has had some grief about this topic that certainly isn't necessary. Possibly not an extraordinary storm, but certainly a tight and deepening feature that looks set to cause some local  issues. Here in the East Cheshire marginals storms on this track have caused some problems in the past, particularly on the rear edge when winds briefly funnel down the Irish sea and through the Mersey Estuary into the Cheshire gap. Wouldn't be surprised if some amber warnings get posted in next hour or so.

[shuggee]

Going to be interesting to watch this depression take shape and pull the ppn around itself. Various models predicting 6-12cm of snow for me after dark so Freya might become my favourite of the season so far.