Storm Freya - Atlantic storm 6

[NO LONGER POSTING]

1 minute ago, West is Best said:

 

In many years observing the weather I have never known the GFS be correct about UK storms. They either have ludicrously deep ones in mid-Atlantic, or ignore ones that develop and deepen late. This comes from a big fan of the GFS but it's definitely their weakest link.

Met Office all the way on UK storms. Every time.

It actually does pretty well when it gets its act together within the 12-6hr time period... It will blow them up then come back down to earth.. Happens every single time

Edited March 3, 2019 by Surrey

[West is Best]

Let's agree to disagree. I think GFS is really poor on Atlantic storms.

Met Office every time for these shores.

[West is Best]

Freya is developing and deepening rapidly. Look at this sequence over the last 4 hours:

 

I think the Met Office will be correct: peak gusts in the region of 60mph, perhaps 70mph in places and possibly up to near 80mph in one or two exposed coasts.

Standard fare for Altnaharra, less so for Altringham.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Even in house model backed right down now... You have to use the Data in front of you not go against it... 

EDIT: 1mb drop per hour does not fall into the rapid cyclogenesis category. 

6am-7am no change in storm depth... 

Edited March 3, 2019 by Surrey

[West is Best]

I'm not entirely sure what the point of this is? Are you disagreeing with the MetOffice analysis?

'Peak gusts in the region of 60mph, perhaps 70mph in places and possibly up to near 80mph in one or two exposed coasts.' That, please note, will be the criteria by which this is measured.

Windy enough for precautions and at the moment, based on latest observations, I see little cause to disagree with the Met Office warning from yesterday:

Clearly in Thorpe Park you're not expected to feel much but this isn't, or shouldn't be, about NIMBY.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

15 minutes ago, West is Best said:

I'm not entirely sure what the point of this is? Are you disagreeing with the MetOffice analysis?

'Peak gusts in the region of 60mph, perhaps 70mph in places and possibly up to near 80mph in one or two exposed coasts.' That, please note, will be the criteria by which this is measured.

Windy enough for precautions and at the moment, based on latest observations, I see little cause to disagree with the Met Office warning from yesterday:

Clearly in Thorpe Park you're not expected to feel much but this isn't, or shouldn't be, about NIMBY.

Because thats old data? 

 

Not hard to understand that... 

Edited March 3, 2019 by Surrey

[The PIT]

None event now according to the GFS windy up the channel gusts in the 40's elsewhere. A day of xcweather watching a few hours should confirm whos right and whos wrong

[West is Best]

23 hours ago, Surrey said:

Nothing of note from this storm, infact looks like a fart in a thunderstorm... 

23 hours ago you posted the above.

Some time ago you set your heart against believing that Freya will bite, regardless of actual data old or new.

You may of course be right, though it's blowing up wildly down here now, but as an old friend used to post on this forum, just because 1 in 10 times you pin the tail correctly on the donkey's backside doesn't make you an accurate forecaster.

I suggest folk on this occasion stick to the Met Office analysis and observable data. It's a potent little storm for the parts they highlighted yellow, albeit fairly short-lived.

Edited March 3, 2019 by West is Best

[West is Best]

Looking quite nasty later for West Wales in particular. Here's the 19h00 latest from windy.com:

 

Edited March 3, 2019 by West is Best

[West is Best]

And here's 20h00. Note the vicious SW sting in the tail for the north coast of south Wales: roughly from Aberystwyth to Milford Haven:

[West is Best]

Latest forecast from the Met Office, issued in the last hour:

Storm Freya bringing wet and windy weather to many today.

Today:

Squally showers slowly easing throughout the day across northwest Scotland, with rain across the south of the UK, gradually moving northwards. Winds also increasing as Storm Freya approaches with severe gales possible later in southwest England and Wales.

Wind gusts around 60-70mph in places.

Met Office forecaster Craig Snell said the South West would be the region to watch this afternoon as the storm arrived but that the strongest winds could be seen in other parts of the country.

He said:

'Parts of Wales and the Irish Sea coast of northwest England is where we could see 70 to 80 miles an hour.

The strongest winds will be limited to parts of western England and Wales, but the warning area includes parts of the Midlands and over towards Yorkshire and Lincolnshire as well.

But they probably wont see the strongest winds until the very back-end of Sunday going into Monday morning.'

Edited March 3, 2019 by West is Best

[West is Best]

GFS 0z forecast a depth of 992 mb for 09h00. The actual surface analysis shows 988 mb. And notice how much more intense it already is than the GFS forecast:

Actual:

 

Latest forecast from the BBC: 'details and track of Storm Freya haven't changed very much, 60-70mph in the south-west, could see as much as 80mph in one or two places.'

 

Latest from Windy.com using ECMWF. This shows the storm building in the south-west and shows the real kicker early evening for the Irish Sea coasts. That's where we could see gusts in excess of 70mph:

 

 

[The PIT]

Netweather forecast having none of it for us. Local met office forecast saying max gust 50 mph for us.

Met office record for events that change at the last minute isn't very good. The last one was the snow event in December it was even raining in the peak district and still the warning for heavy snow stayed in place.

[West is Best]

I actually think the Met Office are pretty brilliant on short-notice UK weather patterns. You can't really compare snow / sleet with a storm. They're different beasts and, as you know full well, marginal snow is incredibly difficult to get right. The Feb snow event here it rained for 6 hours whereas 8 miles away in Crediton it snowed all that time.

I'm not really sure the point of being curmudgeonly with the Met Office on this: they're damned if they do and damned if they don't. I blame Brexit  

There's no data to suggest they're wrong. Just an inaccurate GFS forecast.

Edited March 3, 2019 by West is Best

[TEITS]

1 hour ago, West is Best said:

You may of course be right, though it's blowing up wildly down here now,

 

Rather OTT.

At 08.50 Exeter airport was reporting windspeeds of 19mph. Not what I would call wild winds!

[West is Best]

Some of you Midlanders and leafy Home County-ites are being a tad irascible and NIMBY this morning, if I may say so  Do you remember, years and years ago, TEITS when I tried to tell you what your weather was doing in Peterborough and you posted a snow angel as a brilliant retort?

It's blowing a hoolie up the Exe estuary where I live. Peak gusts already in the south-west, six hours ahead of likely maxima:

Camborne 44 mph

Plymouth 45 mph

Chivenor 47mph

I observe nothing with which to disagree with the Met Office forecast for this event.

 

[West is Best]

Storm Freya coiling nicely now in preparedness for her strike. 4mb deeper than GFS forecast and, significantly, more developed and intense:

GFS:

Actual:

 

Met Office win over GFS ... again. Invariably the right option for short-range UK based weather patterns.

Edited March 3, 2019 by West is Best

[knocker]

As far as I can see the low was still to the south west of the tip of Ireland at 0900 with the strongest winds  effecting the SW approaches from the SW/S in the region of 70Km/h

Edited March 3, 2019 by knocker

[The PIT]

1 hour ago, West is Best said:

I actually think the Met Office are pretty brilliant on short-notice UK weather patterns. You can't really compare snow / sleet with a storm. They're different beasts and, as you know full well, marginal snow is incredibly difficult to get right. The Feb snow event here it rained for 6 hours whereas 8 miles away in Crediton it snowed all that time.

I'm not really sure the point of being curmudgeonly with the Met Office on this: they're damned if they do and damned if they don't. I blame Brexit  

There's no data to suggest they're wrong. Just an inaccurate GFS forecast.

There's no data to suggest they're right either as it's not happened yet.

[Summer Sun]

Updated warning

15:00 Today to 06:00 Tomorrow

Storm Freya will bring very strong winds, with some travel disruption and possible dangerous conditions late Sunday and into Monday

What to expect

• Injuries and danger to life from flying debris are possible
• Some damage to buildings and trees, such as tiles blown from roofs and fallen branches, could happen
• Road, rail, air and ferry services may be affected, with longer journey times and cancellations possible
• Some roads and bridges may close
• Power cuts may occur, with the potential to affect other services, such as mobile phone coverage
• Injuries and danger to life could occur from large waves and beach material being thrown onto sea fronts, coastal roads and properties

Reason for update

The warning area has been adjusted slightly, removing northernmost parts of England, and extended southeastwards to include Norfolk and more of Cambridgeshire.

Storm Freya is expected to push quickly north-east across parts of England and Wales through Sunday afternoon and evening, before clearing into the North Sea through the early part of Monday. Gusts of 55-65 mph are likely widely, with the potential for gusts of 70-80 mph for coastal parts of Cornwall, northern Devon, Wales and north-west England. The very highest winds look likely to occur on Sunday evening over parts of coastal Wales.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2019-03-03&id=50f29fb8-86f4-46a1-bdf1-26b4e351a752&details

[West is Best]

Latest from the BBC: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47420826

Met Office have updated their Yellow Warning:

Storm Freya will bring very strong winds, with some travel disruption and possible dangerous conditions late Sunday and into Monday

What to expect

Injuries and danger to life from flying debris are possible

Some damage to buildings and trees, such as tiles blown from roofs and fallen branches, could happen

Road, rail, air and ferry services may be affected, with longer journey times and cancellations possible

Some roads and bridges may close

Power cuts may occur, with the potential to affect other services, such as mobile phone coverage

Injuries and danger to life could occur from large waves and beach material being thrown onto sea fronts, coastal roads and properties

 

The warning area has been adjusted slightly, removing northernmost parts of England, and extended southeastwards to include Norfolk and more of Cambridgeshire.

 

 

[The PIT]

1 hour ago, West is Best said:

I actually think the Met Office are pretty brilliant on short-notice UK weather patterns. You can't really compare snow / sleet with a storm. They're different beasts and, as you know full well, marginal snow is incredibly difficult to get right. The Feb snow event here it rained for 6 hours whereas 8 miles away in Crediton it snowed all that time.

I'm not really sure the point of being curmudgeonly with the Met Office on this: they're damned if they do and damned if they don't. I blame Brexit  

There's no data to suggest they're wrong. Just an inaccurate GFS forecast.

Except in the case of December it wasn't marginal as the uppers didn't support snow days in advance away from Scotland.

[West is Best]

8 minutes ago, The PIT said:

There's no data to suggest they're right either as it's not happened yet.

Gusts are already over 50mph which isn't a 'fart in a thunderstorm' although I can't find the latter definition in my lexicon of meteorology.

988 mb and an intense little storm. Batten down.

I note, with some glee, that this is now due to affect Peterborough though of course I earnestly hope and pray no-one is injured. It's all very well making light of these events but people can be hurt. Thankfully it's not in the rush hour.

Met Office spot on.

[knocker]

2 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Except in the case of December it wasn't marginal as the uppers didn't support snow days in advance away from Scotland.

I presume that you are suggesting that professional meteorologists were not aware of this and were once again ignoring advice from the sages of NW

[Eskimo]

16 minutes ago, knocker said:

I presume that you are suggesting that professional meteorologists were not aware of this and were once again ignoring advice from the sages of NW

You mean to say that the Metoffice don't formulate forecasts based on Netweather opinions?