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1 hour ago, Badgers01 said:

Nice day for voting - whatever your take on politics always important to exercise your right which is denied other countries around the world 

 

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Can't you vote then in them places in your second two pics then Badgers? Where is that?

Lovely day here too, 22c.🙂

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45 minutes ago, snowray said:

Can't you vote then in them places in your second two pics then Badgers? Where is that?

Lovely day here too, 22c.🙂

Middle one is the pier at Worthing where I had to nip down to after voting  and the bottom one is Oxshott woods ...

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23 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

Middle one is the pier at Worthing where I had to nip down to after voting  and the bottom one is Oxshott woods ...

Cool.😉

 

Btw... Heathrow has just hit 25c.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, snowray said:

Can't you vote then in them places in your second two pics then Badgers? Where is that?

Lovely day here too, 22c.🙂

@Badgers01Did the little fella vote? He might as well have given the bonkers mess we are in! 

25.2c now in South London. Just hot enough for me. Not an oppressive heat which is good. 

Edited by Wimbledon88

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Ooohh, pretty sure that was a roll of thunder (I suppose it could have been someone bringing in the bins). I was pointing out the mammatus clouds covering the sky to my son on the return college run, saying we 'might' get a bit of a storm if we're lucky. I'm counting that one!

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Definitely feels very convective out there. Big fluffy clouds and humid.

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Juicy looking sky in WorthingDSC_0563.thumb.JPG.42d3a1185b7390abf786de9a5d55ff49.JPG

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We appear to be staying firmly to the west of this activity!

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IMG_20190524_210326.jpg

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missed the rain that affected areas further east today so all in all another pleasant day !!

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Posted (edited)

What a gloroius spell of weather we are having. My water butt after being nearly full after the last lot of rain is now 5% full. I think it was topped up a tiny bit after last nights sprinkle. My newly seeded grass (only doing lawn bit by bit) needs rain and I am trying to only use recycled water to get me a new lawn...might have to use the garden tap...wife thinks i am nuts!!!

Edited by all weather

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Raining here, right on cue for bank holiday.

Decent day today though, dry & felt warm in the sunshine. 

Hoping for more dry weather throughout June, ground drying up nicely and making good conditions for outdoor activities. 

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2 hours ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Rain this week has disappeared from the Met Office forecasts!:wallbash:

Yes indeed. Just forecasting isolated showers now for tommorow. Beginning to wonder if we will ever see any meaningful rain here in the capital. 

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7 hours ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Rain this week has disappeared from the Met Office forecasts!:wallbash:

Hum, that's strange Chris. This afternoon's output from both Arpege and GFS high res models going for between 10mm and 20mm between today and next Friday 31st. Very useful for topping up the water butts if correct. There was 2.3mm here this afternoon as a start to building up to that total, but for me the pleasant surprise of today was the decent spell of warm sunshine from mid-morning until lunchtime, pushing the temp briefly up to 21.5C at 13.00 before it clouded up and temp fell quickly.

Arpege 210100641_ArpegeCumPrecip26-31May.thumb.png.4d0adaa00f985ae7b843fdddca9d2de5.png GFS 1769452078_GFSCumPrecip26-31May.thumb.GIF.1c302be1e7121cf840bdbfc910276ad4.GIF

Temp graph today: 1564991638_Tempgraph26May.thumb.jpg.405660f2434dedfd758ccd9d1e577f98.jpg

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It’s been an odd day here, we headed to Battle today they had a Medieval fayre there. It started out beautiful we walked all the way around Battle Abbey and the battle field. About 13.00 hours the weather started to change it clouded over and the temperature fell away we also had a few spots of rain. I’m now quite hot and it feels slightly humid to me, I have the windows and french doors wide open. I have been keeping an eye on the weather tomorrow because we might go to Kent but every forecast seems very different.

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1 hour ago, Blessed Weather said:

Hum, that's strange Chris. This afternoon's output from both Arpege and GFS high res models going for between 10mm and 20mm between today and next Friday 31st. Very useful for topping up the water butts if correct. There was 2.3mm here this afternoon as a start to building up to that total, but for me the pleasant surprise of today was the decent spell of warm sunshine from mid-morning until lunchtime, pushing the temp briefly up to 21.5C at 13.00 before it clouded up and temp fell quickly.

Arpege 210100641_ArpegeCumPrecip26-31May.thumb.png.4d0adaa00f985ae7b843fdddca9d2de5.png GFS 1769452078_GFSCumPrecip26-31May.thumb.GIF.1c302be1e7121cf840bdbfc910276ad4.GIF

Temp graph today: 1564991638_Tempgraph26May.thumb.jpg.405660f2434dedfd758ccd9d1e577f98.jpg

Only around 1/4 of a mm here, Malcolm, though the forecast seems more optimistic for usable rain than it did earlier.

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2 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

Hum, that's strange Chris.

BBC forecast agreeing with Met Office from earlier - a few heavy showers on Tuesday but otherwise bone dry all week for our area.

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13 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

BBC forecast agreeing with Met Office from earlier - a few heavy showers on Tuesday but otherwise bone dry all week for our area.

And with the BBC/MeteoGroup (using ECM) and Met Office lining up against GFS and Arpege regarding amounts of rainfall, I think we know the more likely outcome! :oldsmile:

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11 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

And with the BBC/MeteoGroup (using ECM) and Met Office lining up against GFS and Arpege regarding amounts of rainfall, I think we know the more likely outcome! :oldsmile:

I don't think I'm as knowledgeable regarding models as you, Malcolm.  Could you possibly expand your point for an idiot like me, please?🙄

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3 hours ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I don't think I'm as knowledgeable regarding models as you, Malcolm.  Could you possibly expand your point for an idiot like me, please?🙄

That's a kind comment Chris, but actually it's more down to me being inquisitive and wanting to find out how various web-based organisations arrived at their snow forecasts for my skiing holidays. Without going into too much detail, I found that the Austrian and German based companies providing snow forecasts normally use the ECMWF model, the French companies use Arpege and the Americans GFS. But if you are looking at a UK based company that provides snow forecasts (e.g. snowforecast.com) for the Alps and USA destinations, they will normally use GFS because the raw data output from NOAA/NWS is free for such companies to use. So all they need to do is develop some overlay software that uses the raw data to produce what you see when using their snow 'apps'. By the way, if you want to read an interesting article about mobile phone weather apps, this article is interesting: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jun/30/weather-forecast-apps-smartphone-predictions-forecasting

But the key question is, which model is best? As we know from verification stats, not all models are equal with regard the accuracy of their forecasts, with ECMWF best, then UKMO and then GFS. Arpege is a well respected model used by Meteo France that was developed in collaboration with ECMWF - so a good pedigree - but behind the top 3. In the following chart showing Nov 2018 stats you can see the percentage error rate creeping into each model's 12z NH 500hPa forecast over time, with for example an approx 8% difference between ECM and GFS by day 5 and approx 12% by day 10.

1949056434_VerificationStatsECMWFNov2018.thumb.jpg.3b224866f878f3356119cb4235c8338e.jpg

As we know, MeteoGroup have replaced the Met Office as the source of BBC forecasts and they use a combination of ECM, GFS and UKMO models to arrive at their forecasts. Through long-standing use of the 3 models and an internally based evaluation system they adapt (weight) elements of the model output to arrive at their forecasts used by the BBC (and other customers).

Sorry that's a bit long-winded but I hope it helps explain my remark about expected winner in a ECM + UKMO versus GFS + Arpege forecasting stand-off. :oldsmile:

Back to today and a first light shower has just gone through. But not much heavy stuff showing on the radar as yet. Temp an acceptable 17C.

1017380372_Radar15.1527May.thumb.jpg.bcd90fa747c7bda385c3b25e64921bab.jpg

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Managed to dodge the showers so far that crossed to my north today. 

More dry and settled weather coming up - perfect. 

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Last night there was heavy rain at 8pm which lasted about an hour. The Met Office reduced the possibility of rain at 9pm yesterday from 80% to 10%.

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3 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

That's a kind comment Chris, but actually it's more down to me being inquisitive and wanting to find out how various web-based organisations arrived at their snow forecasts for my skiing holidays. Without going into too much detail, I found that the Austrian and German based companies providing snow forecasts normally use the ECMWF model, the French companies use Arpege and the Americans GFS. But if you are looking at a UK based company that provides snow forecasts (e.g. snowforecast.com) for the Alps and USA destinations, they will normally use GFS because the raw data output from NOAA/NWS is free for such companies to use. So all they need to do is develop some overlay software that uses the raw data to produce what you see when using their snow 'apps'. By the way, if you want to read an interesting article about mobile phone weather apps, this article is interesting: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jun/30/weather-forecast-apps-smartphone-predictions-forecasting

But the key question is, which model is best? As we know from verification stats, not all models are equal with regard the accuracy of their forecasts, with ECMWF best, then UKMO and then GFS. Arpege is a well respected model used by Meteo France that was developed in collaboration with ECMWF - so a good pedigree - but behind the top 3. In the following chart showing Nov 2018 stats you can see the percentage error rate creeping into each model's 12z NH 500hPa forecast over time, with for example an approx 8% difference between ECM and GFS by day 5 and approx 12% by day 10.

1949056434_VerificationStatsECMWFNov2018.thumb.jpg.3b224866f878f3356119cb4235c8338e.jpg

As we know, MeteoGroup have replaced the Met Office as the source of BBC forecasts and they use a combination of ECM, GFS and UKMO models to arrive at their forecasts. Through long-standing use of the 3 models and an internally based evaluation system they adapt (weight) elements of the model output to arrive at their forecasts used by the BBC (and other customers).

Sorry that's a bit long-winded but I hope it helps explain my remark about expected winner in a ECM + UKMO versus GFS + Arpege forecasting stand-off. :oldsmile:

Back to today and a first light shower has just gone through. But not much heavy stuff showing on the radar as yet. Temp an acceptable 17C.

1017380372_Radar15.1527May.thumb.jpg.bcd90fa747c7bda385c3b25e64921bab.jpg

Thanks for the explanation! 

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Whoaa... torrential rain here. 

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Very pleasant after 4pm here is SW London - surprised to see so much activity on the radar elsewhere in the country ..

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