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So as we enter meteorological Spring, a new thread for us to continue chatting about the weather and its impact here in the SE & EA Region.

After the wonderful settled and warm weather of the last couple of weeks, the current outlook for early March looks distinctly unsettled with some wet, windy and cooler weather on offer.

This weekend kicking things off with a breezy Saturday and then a potentially very windy late Sunday into Monday as a secondary low develops with strong winds on its southern flank. Still much uncertainty with this developing feature regarding track and intensity, but one to watch over the next few days. Here’s how Arpege sees it:

Wind gusts, Sunday lunchtime to Monday morning:

anim_bnp9.gif

 

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Yep looks like we're going from lovely clear blue skies and calm conditions to just the opposite (thanks Atlantic)...what ever happened to Pm and Am incursions from some point of a northerly direction?

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And a wet Sunday morning for football. Great.

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29 minutes ago, Bogman said:

And a wet Sunday morning for football. Great.

I prefer playing in wet soggy conditions than in hot dry weather. Bit of mud and rain never harmed anyone. 🙂

 

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3 hours ago, Wimbledon88 said:

I prefer playing in wet soggy conditions than in hot dry weather. Bit of mud and rain never harmed anyone. 🙂

 

 

Agreed, I did too mate, but I'm too old for that now unfortunately, and I'm running an u18 side, so it'll be wet setting up, wet during the game, then wet taking everything down.

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LOL, that’s a funny age as all the parents have buggered off and don’t whatch anymore 😂. I coach a under 8’s team and it will be the parents getting soaked taking the goals down. ☔

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Our parents are not too bad, on the support side, but disappear sharpish when anything needs doing.

Enjoy them when they're that age. This season hasn't been too bad, but last season, when our lot were u17's all teams wanted to do was pick fights. 

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Football on Saturday should be fine, Sunday morning is netball, they still play in the wind which impresses me, standing water just makes it to slippery and falling on tarmac is not as forgiving as grass in football.

 

Either way it is us parents who get cold and wet 😞

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14 minutes ago, m1chaels said:

Football on Saturday should be fine, Sunday morning is netball, they still play in the wind which impresses me, standing water just makes it to slippery and falling on tarmac is not as forgiving as grass in football.

 

Either way it is us parents who get cold and wet 😞

 

It's a great thing that you go and watch. There are alot of parents who use us as their creche, dumping the kids off for a few hours. 

Can never get my head around that. Go support your child, whether you understand the sport they participate in or not. Can't get my head round why you wouldn't.

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Looks good fir Saturday with reasonable temperature but Sunday against our rivals Chelski looks very wet and windy so could be s bit of a leveller,here hoping

 

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Morning all,

Agree with the post above. Today looks a very reasonable day in our region, before going rapidly downhill overnight. 

A wave develops to our S.W and deepens rapidly into Storm Freya and tracks to our N.W, through Sunday.

image.thumb.png.556be7c6f27be2fe2bb4308cde66de9f.png

image.thumb.png.6c6d3a09f2bbdbaa4a24acf8f26846d2.png

Some rain on Sunday morning, followed by another band of rain, as Freya's cold front moves through. But the wind, could be more of an issue and looks to rise throughout the day tomorrow, as Freya continues to deepen. 

Make the most of today, as it looks like "batten down the hatches", tomorrow!!

Regards,

Tom.  :hi: 🌬️

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Blue sky overhead now and looks to be a decent day ahead. 

Tomorrow’s looking a bit grim (AKA Freya) 

oh the good old days of the 90’s when it was just known as a wet and windy day & everyone got on with it before media hype set in. 

 

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mixture of a day today, This morning when I woke it was overcast not windy but we had had a shower at some point in the early morning.  At lunch time it was beautiful the sun was out, still no wind hardly any clouds and about 13 degrees, NOOOOWWWW Its very overcast,  cold and very windy. Fraya is obviously starting to make her mark. 

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Still very warm for the time of year.

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A mixed weather day today, mostly grey with the odd bit of blue poking through, but the wind really whipped up in Kingston this afternoon and it was a very breezy walk indeed back along the river. Our fence panel that went down in the last lot of windy weather is still precariously propped up so husband is planning on mobilising garden furniture to keep it standing before Freya arrives.

Regarding parents and kids' sports, I do tend to agree, in fact it's a bit of a bug bear of mine that some parents treat it as a bit of a creche, but with busy families I get that staying may not be an option for all. I have stayed at every single one of my son's activities and still do even at the age of 19, but of course with his learning disabilities/autism/dyspraxia it is a somewhat different case, although I am still often one of only a handful of parents that stick around. It is so rewarding as I get to know all the kids, especially as they develop over the years.

And on that point, Hannah, whom I have known since she started at Special Olympics the same time as my son, is off to Dubai/Abu Dhabi at the end of the week to represent the country at the Special Olympics World Summer Games. A huge achievement for her and she has trained so hard alongside her father who has supported her through so much. Here is a picture of her with my son at their final training event, I got really emotional about the whole thing; they're having a special party at the Hilton in Cobham on Monday to send off all the athletes. Good luck to them all and do look out for coverage when it turns up on the news, it's really special.

 

Hannah and Luke.jpg

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Storm Freya: 50mph max gusts for our region tomorrow according to BBC with a drier interlude, late morning into the afternoon 

50-60mph further north with persistent rain. 

Wasn’t this just a very wet, very windy spell back in the day? Or am I missing something 

 

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I wasn't expecting winds to start picking up here until tomorrow early hours tomorrow but it's really getting quite breezy out there 🤗

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Morning all,

Up very early, to the sound of the Dawn Chorus, competing with the "pitter-patter" of raindrops from Freya's advance guard, of Storm Trooper's.

Once her warm front has moved through, there will be a drier slot of weather. Then as she tracks to our N.W and deepens, winds should begin to increase, significantly. By mid to late afternoon, Freya's cold front will be pushing through our region. This is likely to be quite  a squally affair.

This time last year, we were experiencing the BFTE. Perhaps Freya can be referred to as a PFTSW (Pest From The South West).

Having just seen a recording of MeteoGroup's, Weather For The Week Ahead with Susan Powell, it looks like a repeat performance is on the cards, for Wednesday. Another PFTSW, tracks across the U.K.

Will it be potent enough, to warrant giving it a name?? GARETH, is next on the list.

    00z UKMO (t72) 01.00 6th MARCH

image.thumb.png.960cb0083e4da26e03d034cda98f923a.png

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

 

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Freya is not packing any punch really.. UNLESS the GFS and Arpege are totally wrong and she deepens quicker than expected... 

What is more worrying is the totals of PPN from now till tomorrow afternoon for the South coast ...

 

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Posted (edited)

The worst of Freya missing the majority of our Region. It's only once the low has moved out into the North Sea that the area of strong winds on the southern flank take a swipe at the north west of our patch and towards the Wash and north Norfolk, where gusts of 60 mph could be experienced for a few hours. Otherwise gusts of 40-50 mph for most of us. Here's Arpege max wind gusts for 17.00 tonight to 06.00 Monday:

anim_yia2.gif

As @Surrey points out, the heaviest rainfall over the next 24 hours will be along the South Coast where up to 25mm (1 inch) could fall. Here's Arpege cumulative precipitation between now and 06.00 Monday. And interestingly, the part of the Region that will see the strongest winds will experience the lowest rainfall.

2131329921_ArpegecumpreciptoMon04Mar04_00.thumb.png.bfc52d4f8f3b5494a06eb1b14a5572b4.png

Edited by Blessed Weather
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Just now, Blessed Weather said:

The worst of Freya missing the majority of our Region. It's only once the low has moved out into the North Sea that the area of strong winds on the southern flank take a swipe at the north west of our patch and towards the Wash and north Norfolk, where gusts of 60 mph could be experienced for a few hours. Otherwise gusts of 40-50 mph for most of us. Here's Arpege max wind gusts for 17.00 tonight to 06.00 Monday:

anim_yia2.gif

As @Surrey points out, the heaviest rainfall over the next 24 hours will be along the South Coast where up to 25mm (1 inch) could fall. Here's Arpege cumulative precipitation between now and 06.00 Monday. And interestingly, the part of the Region that will see the strongest winds will experience the lowest rainfall.

2131329921_ArpegecumpreciptoMon04Mar04_00.thumb.png.bfc52d4f8f3b5494a06eb1b14a5572b4.png

That hardly looks like happening now on the models across the board... 

60mph would be a push even on coasts.. 

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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, Surrey said:

That hardly looks like happening now on the models across the board... 

60mph would be a push even on coasts.. 

Not sure about the statement "models across the board" Surrey. I'm using the scale on Arpege to arrive at the figures above (converting the + 85 km/h shown on the charts into +52 mph). Here's two charts from the GIF:

Sun 19.00 854131170_ArpegegustsSun03Mar19_00.thumb.png.ac44b9888b28cc3d18fdb54b8b1f964e.png Mon 02.00 323231472_ArpegegustsMon04Mar02_00.thumb.png.6e41d8f6172e3c24410e2392b69cb3f1.png

And other models show gusts of + 85 km/h moving across the Region at various times. For example:

NMM 17.00 1767855924_NMMgustsSun03Mar17_00.thumb.png.43508421d2353b3be4253d802409fe9c.png Arome 21.00 385037074_AromeGustsSun03Mar21_00.thumb.png.badc5d2ef27de75e0f3742b94f2bbde5.png

P.S. And check the scale for the area around the Wash as the worst moves through.

Edited by Blessed Weather
Add p.s.

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

Not sure about the statement "models across the board" Surrey. I'm using the scale on Arpege to arrive at the figures above (converting the + 85 km/h shown on the charts into +52 mph). Here's two charts from the GIF:

Sun 19.00 854131170_ArpegegustsSun03Mar19_00.thumb.png.ac44b9888b28cc3d18fdb54b8b1f964e.png Mon 02.00 323231472_ArpegegustsMon04Mar02_00.thumb.png.6e41d8f6172e3c24410e2392b69cb3f1.png

And other models show gusts of + 85 km/h moving across the Region at various times. For example:

NMM 17.00 1767855924_NMMgustsSun03Mar17_00.thumb.png.43508421d2353b3be4253d802409fe9c.png Arome 21.00 385037074_AromeGustsSun03Mar21_00.thumb.png.badc5d2ef27de75e0f3742b94f2bbde5.png

Arepege notorious for over doing wind gusts NMM also backed down..

 

Hardly a windy affair.. How is 52mph causing so much hype???? 

 

Im the first to jump on the storm wave and take interest I enjoy a good storm, but from yesterday I have been slated and contiuned this morning for airing an opinion.. thats whats wrong with this generation. It don't matter what the other side said.. you are always right... 

Edited by Surrey

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1 minute ago, Surrey said:

Arepege notorious for over doing wind gusts NMM also backed down..

 

Hardly a windy affair.. How is 52mph causing so much hype???? 

 

 

I'm quoting latest runs so it's what current model output shows.

Agree there's too much hype around storms nowadays, brought on by naming them, but gusts of 50 mph still notable for our Region. (I think nw Cambs and Norfolk will see stronger).

But let's see what the next 24 hours brings. Freya is still a fledgling system down in the SW approaches atm. I'll post the max gusts from around the Region tomorrow.

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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Blessed Weather said:

I'm quoting latest runs so it's what current model output shows.

Agree there's too much hype around storms nowadays, brought on by naming them, but gusts of 50 mph still notable for our Region. (I think nw Cambs and Norfolk will see stronger).

But let's see what the next 24 hours brings. Freya is still a fledgling system down in the SW approaches atm. I'll post the max gusts from around the Region tomorrow.

MAX 57MPH somewhere around Welsh coast... 

IF deepends earlier 63mph somewhere off Norfolk coast... 

Not the 80mph I have been told this morning 

Edited by Surrey

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