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Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I have not seen a post in here today stating there will be snow this evening! 

Really. What about my post from 8 hours ago Although of course it doesn't state categorically that there will be

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/91396-model-discussion-warm-spell-ending-as-spring-begins/?page=7

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I have not seen a post in here today stating there will be snow this evening! 

Here's one showing that there MAY be more widespread snow this time next week.

image.thumb.png.71a0e00b1250677f80548f35122a44b7.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Gfs 18s and ECM both going the Nthly route around day 10!

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Edit... Fair play to gfs for consistently showing a snow risk next weekend and beyond!! 

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Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Very nice to see snow again on tonight's 18z..I have a good feeling that march will deliver some wintry surprises..and not just further north and high ground!!❄

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Posted
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Warm Summer. Snowy Winter.
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl

Nature has it's own vibe. Plenty of snow to come, delayed winter imo.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I have a feeling that some coldies will return if the models keep hinting snow like the gfs is, it's a bit like leaving a home fixture football match early when your team is losing but then hearing a big roar once your out of the stadium!!..hopefully march will bring some belated joy!

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

I have a feeling that some coldies will return if the models keep hinting snow like the gfs is, it's a bit like leaving a home fixture football match early when your team is losing but then hearing a big roar once your out of the stadium!!..hopefully march will bring some belated joy!

Trust me frosty they are lurking! Maybe a bit skeptical because of all the winter let downs, last weeks mini heatwave shows us you take nothing for granted with Mrs mother nature UK!

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
17 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Even our old foe the Polar Vortex shedding a tear for us at T300 on the pub run:

image.thumb.jpg.f0bb65ea6e3eb7be65c161f12e0548e1.jpg

Lol Mike, I've shed more than a bloody tear this winter I can tell ya!

I can safely say I've done a belly full of crying.

 

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
1 minute ago, Nick F said:

One would have been hard pushed to have predicted snow at lower elevations across eastern Ireland this afternoon as happened in spades, based even on the 12z GFS dew points and T850s. 

Sun_GFSOPUK12_3_2.thumb.png.211be8ca93bacc9eeea2889a00eefbe0.png2035781032_Sun_GFSOPUK12_3_10(1).thumb.png.e35382cf96b76b12b2a5e2a9887080e3.pngT850s and DPs for 15z this afternoon.

It seems that the intense nature of the precipitation on the northern flank of deepening Storm Freya caused big evaporative cooling of the air to allow the freezing level to drop enough to allow snow to lower levels. Snow reaching to lower elevations across far north of England this evening too, though would never have guessed looking at dew points, T850s and 850-1000mb thicknesses.

850s.thumb.png.11555446e880415c15de4ad4d8b92c2b.pngDP21z.thumb.png.c3a459be4a9e85264ee228d12e5f7574.pngthk850-1000.thumb.png.9a0487274b7aea4d90e9dca0cc79effd.png

Goes to show, that T850s are the be all and end all, heavy precipitation with rapidly developing lows and colder air cutting on northern flank at the surface can catch out forecasters!

Wouldn't be surprised if we see a few more snow surprises in the next week or so in the colder Pm incursions progged by models from time to time between systems moving east.

Indeed and even though my location didn't get snow am amazed how well parts of Ireland did!! Impressively the beeb and met office did forecast snow though in an almost identical place to where it fell...goes to show how at times they seem to reside at a slightly higher level than the rest of us (forecasting wise). Almost more extraordinary was how the snow lay so easily after such a mild few weeks. Ground temps way above normal yet heavy snow meant it stuck readily 

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh-on-Sea
  • Location: Leigh-on-Sea
1 hour ago, knocker said:

Well actually it was but judging from many of the posts in here today it's not worth the time and effort posting in this thread,

Why? This thread was almost dead until the last few days!

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

18z ensembles not to shabby, good post by nick f explaining how these snow situations can devolop and the prospect of more surprises! Amazing how after 3 months of failed winter we now have cold shots and snow surprises turning up out of thin air!! Just as most had threw that towel in for winter!! Mine will be held for some time longer yet! The fat lady ain't singing... I tell ya she has gone and lost her voice big time.

graphe3_1000_260_66___.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
3 hours ago, Rambo said:

Why? This thread was almost dead until the last few days!

Fine, I'll let you get on with it then, but for the record the wrf did have snow more or less where it occurred as I posted earlier in the day. And the Valentia midday sounding gives an idea tht something was afoot in the NW flank

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
3 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS 0z suite are packed with snow potential.

image.thumb.png.ac7963fcaa700a68b2fd857b97f3081b.png

Excellent ensembles Feb, and any coldies feeling the blues this morning, never mind just look at what the 0z serves up as we approach next week! Don't think I have seen snow charts like this since last year! 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Excellent ensembles Feb, and any coldies feeling the blues this morning, never mind just look at what the 0z serves up as we approach next week! Don't think I have seen snow charts like this since last year! 

 

Yes - word of warning though, those particular snow charts are very low res graphically, the ECM suite  doesn't agree to anywhere near that extent although there are improvements and also little slithers of -6c starting to appear on the OP now, plus that 0z GEFS is the first to show the cold to that extent so we need it backed up on the 6z as well.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - word of warning though, those particular snow charts are very low res graphically, the ECM suite  doesn't agree to anywhere near that extent although there are improvements and also little slithers of -6c starting to appear on the OP now, plus that 0z GEFS is the first to show the cold to that extent so we need it backed up on the 6z as well.

Yes Feb I know it can overplay them a tad, they have been showing for a fair few runs now so let's hope all of this can get in to higher resolution. Surely we can't get led up the garden path again.... He says in a very nervous disposition!!!

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

When was the last time that Spring was colder than virtually anytime in the entire winter?

image.thumb.png.99154efc7c7f5d95bb6efdf783ce060a.pngimage.thumb.png.dbe22025bb5d75c9c33ae35c4ebc6e03.pngimage.thumb.png.efd26843daf301bd9c96796baaf7ca33.png

Pick of the GEFS

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Edited by Purga
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Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
53 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Yes Feb I know it can overplay them a tad, they have been showing for a fair few runs now so let's hope all of this can get in to higher resolution. Surely we can't get led up the garden path again.... He says in a very nervous disposition!!!

Oh yes we can 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
7 hours ago, knocker said:

Fine, I'll let you get on with it then, but for the record the wrf did have snow more or less where it occurred as I posted earlier in the day. And the Valentia midday sounding gives an idea tht something was afoot in the NW flank

2019030312.03953.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.e9324403f033fd33766b2a7189736579.gif

Yes knocker the chart  you posted did indeed show a risk of snow, I think its because I had not come across a post stating in writing about the snow risk I brought it up! Good call either way. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

Yes Feb I know it can overplay them a tad, they have been showing for a fair few runs now so let's hope all of this can get in to higher resolution. Surely we can't get led up the garden path again.... He says in a very nervous disposition!!!

Another good GFS op - lets wait for the GEFS suite.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Frost Sun
  • Location: Rotherham
1 hour ago, Purga said:

When was the last time that Spring was colder than virtually anytime in the entire winter?

About 12 month's ago? :cold-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

GEFS say yes.

image.thumb.png.2ff1469e616b96efe18ac6b3ba00b1c0.png

EPS less so enthusiastic although difficult to tell.

image.thumb.png.53eb66607b9e80af81c6b6e01479b9b9.png

 

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