Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

 Share

Recommended Posts

MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted (edited)

Who ever said the FV3 had a cold bias will want to reconsider! It's actually on the warmer side of the ensembles now! You can't help but think it's been the same old story for several months now! Colder options and warmer ones! And we all know how well the colder ones have panned out folks! 

 

Edit... And hear by the looks of it is that cold outlier on the ensembles! About as likely to verify as Birmingham having their 9 points football reduction... Reinstated! 

graphe3_1000_295_84___.gif

gens-3-0-324.png

gens-3-1-324.png

Edited by Mattwolves
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

And we all know how well the colder ones have panned out folks! 

That's why I'm not bothered whether the cold options verify or not now that it's almost april...unless there was something exceptional like late april 1981 but I would be happier now if there are growing signs of southerly winds as temperatures would get into the low 20's celsius in early april given the right synoptics.

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

That's why I'm not bothered whether the cold options verify or not now that it's almost april, I would be happier now if there are growing signs of southerly winds as temperatures would get into the low 20's celsius in early april given the right synoptics.

I only hope Karl we have a little more success than we did during the last few months!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Who ever said the FV3 had a cold bias will want to reconsider! It's actually on the warmer side of the ensembles now! You can't help but think it's been the same old story for several months now! Colder options and warmer ones! And we all know how well the colder ones have panned out folks! 

 

Edit... And hear by the looks of it is that cold outlier on the ensembles! About as likely to verify as Birmingham having their 9 points football reduction... Reinstated! 

graphe3_1000_295_84___.gif

gens-3-0-324.png

gens-3-1-324.png

FV3 clearly keeps high pressure in charge until at least early April: image.thumb.png.0104085590b6a75c45ce239f2bad5771.png

                                                                                                           image.thumb.png.81b9fd1c50916ae850b3f1a7ca6b8f0a.png

T+312:    image.thumb.png.b6f41c9bef8d10e4192b809393f65a26.png       image.thumb.png.3c621e82ca6a8863cd582baff5e6e682.png

T+384:    image.thumb.png.c4096715152ae06b02bcd97c5c8fa81c.png       image.thumb.png.f48d406e97fb1e16389d3f90ce4c212f.png

So things still looking not-too-bad at all!☀️

Edited by Ed Stone
  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted (edited)

I ventured out for stroll around Hayle this morning and although there was initially a lot of Ci and multi layered Ac it broke for a while and it was quite warm in the sunshine. The 'window' can be seen on the 1140 sat image, A layer of Sc has encroached now

modis.thumb.JPG.ee97b5ea4e5a64ecf52d70a03252636f.JPG

 

Edited by knocker
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Looking at the GEFS 6z mean, next week high pressure drops anchor over the uk, ergo, very pleasant surface conditions with variable cloud and plenty of sunny spells for the majority, especially england and wales but with cold nights where skies clear and a risk of early mist / fog patches, perhaps only the very far north vulnerable to some weak atlantic influence brushing around the top of the high at times..Beyond next week, more of a north / south split with the north becoming more changeable whereas the south continues predominantly settled..on balance there is more high than low pressure in the extended GEFS 6z so it could well be that early april may deliver some decent weather, at least across southern uk with the jet stream staying further north.

21_78_500mb.png

21_126_500mb.png

21_132_2mtmpmax.png

21_156_500mb.png

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

Always, well usually (!) a more reliable model output when we get cross model agreement.

Beyond that then there are differences both between models and from run to run.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

Surely people can't still be looking for cold and snow? March is nearly done, there's nothing cold on the horizon for the rest of this month or early April.
Let's just admit defeat here and try again later in the year. Winter 2018/19 never delivered, and that's just how it is.

Less than a month from now (April 19th) last year we reached 29.1c. The period 18th-22nd had maxima from 23-29c every day. That's the sort of stuff i'll be looking for, with some nice storms thrown in please!

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
14 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Surely people can't still be looking for cold and snow? March is nearly done, there's nothing cold on the horizon for the rest of this month or early April.
Let's just admit defeat here and try again later in the year. Winter 2018/19 never delivered, and that's just how it is.

Less than a month from now (April 19th) last year we reached 29.1c. The period 18th-22nd had maxima from 23-29c every day. That's the sort of stuff i'll be looking for, with some nice storms thrown in please!

Have a look back on this mornings posts MB018538, most of us saying the chase is over at this late stage of proceedings! I think possibly sleety still in two minds of what way to go.. Lol. But yep, your correct, probably best for everyone's sanity to just go with the flow and search a bit of summer delight now! I would literally have to see cross model agreement from the likes of gfs, ecm, UKMO down to 3 days on a cold snap now to take any note. And I would imagine Karl would feel the same... I think Pete is already dusting down the deck chair, and Mike Poole is purely setting his scope on a lovely summer, Feb and a few others ain't posting so much... So that pretty much sums it up.... Onwards and upwards here we go! 

17ea8ed141a8f059e26865efb87f2880ebf8396ddff75cc7569144f6ea60dfc7.jpg

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

This is very cherry picky of me but what the hell, it's model related isn't it!?️

9_372_850tmp.png

9_372_2mtmpmax.png

17_324_850tmp.png

17_324_2mtmpmax.png

perfick.jpg

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Can't think of a better place for it: image.thumb.png.9eecaa333b9cc77f185c92623ea89949.png image.thumb.png.e66dd6ac692f2c4ec4162a5a7e60ef42.png☀️

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

Icon not on board with anything remotely settled or warm, slight concern, has this in my opinion is an underrated model! 

icon-1-144.png

icon-1-162.png

icon-1-180.png

icon-0-165.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

12Z showing slippage at T+210: image.thumb.png.4e0910801e0128612e9b82c83935f74e.png  image.thumb.png.3fdc8e023a6ad07ea658a2463b7f0601.png

Please God, let the ICON be off on one!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted (edited)

Yes Pete, the 12z seems to be taking us to that halfway house again, not directly under the influence of either high or low pressure! Lot to be resolved I feel... Icon certainly looks more unsettled up to 180hrs anyway! 

Edit... Perhaps some warmer air being drawn up from the south in the latter stages! Hope this ain't gonna be like winter though, when in this case the heat is always 10+ days away, and stays that far out!!! 

gfs-0-300.png

gfs-1-300.png

gfs-0-384.png

gfs-1-384.png

Edited by Mattwolves
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
22 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Early days, very early days but something I noticed in the extended range GEFS 12z is potential for warm / very warm air to be drawn up from southern europe during early april..

 

14_378_850tmp.png

As I mentioned yesterday...and once again today on the GEFS 6z and now the 12z operational also shows potential in early April for much warmer air to be scooped up from southern europe / north africa!

In the meantime, next week is looking anticyclonic.

12_384_mslp850.png

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

But it ends with a potential stonker, Matt:   image.thumb.png.cd398d2fc571b49cc0ca6a7f29ebcd11.png    image.thumb.png.df65c45781dbbea9920067538c348ca6.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

Lol Pete, I can see your eying up the +16 uppers just East of Spain at the end of the run!!!!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

I have HIGH hopes for next week..and there is cross model support for it too!

GEMOPEU12_120_1.png

GFSOPEU12_120_1.png

ICOOPEU12_120_1.png

ECMOPEU00_120_1.png

UW120-21.gif

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

And deep in la la land, FV3 Says never mind spring, have a late taste of winter! 

gfs-0-372.png

gfs-1-372.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Interesting to compare the Gfs 12z operational with the Gfs 12z parallel at the end of the run in early April..oh dear, oh dear, oh dear:gathering: 

GFSPARAEU12_384_2.png

GFSOPEU12_384_2.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted
5 hours ago, knocker said:

I ventured out for stroll around Hayle this morning and although there was initially a lot of Ci and multi layered Ac it broke for a while and it was quite warm in the sunshine.

 

 

Just looked at the Camborne  midday sounding with reference to the above.

2019032312.03808.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.8cfe9074de6203dd03a0fcf2c13e7a22.gif

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted (edited)

Things could certainly be worse...  image.thumb.png.7aaa9e851942de4c64fa07c0b1b3b208.png    image.thumb.png.7f3a7c5054b7bbb644ea11552716e5dc.png

It might even verify!  

And, lest we ever forget: the trend is our friend! image.thumb.png.e6a8c248e45e7246879f03a4ea4d8a99.png

Edited by Ed Stone
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

I'm seriously starting to think the Gfs parallel has even more of a cold bias than me which is really impressive actually!!:clap:hats off to the Gfs (p):hi:

Edited by Blessed Weather
Last comment re other members removed.
  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted (edited)

Can't help but feel, high pressure doesn't seem to be having has much influence on the ECM! 

Edit... It really is going all pear shaped with the mighty ECM! 

ECM1-144.gif

ECM1-192.gif

ECM0-168.gif

ECM0-216.gif

ECM1-216.gif

Edited by Mattwolves
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...