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Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins

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18 minutes ago, knocker said:

2116

meteosat-msg_airmass_overlay-ne_10m_coastline_overlay-ne_10m_admin_0_boundary_lines_land.thumb.jpg.91e2802188a937447214a553e427a867.jpg

 

F1E4CD7A-ED68-496F-9C37-A166975CEDAA.gif

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Pub run take on things at T132:

image.thumb.jpg.74f2044302bc100b9a714590d1c40b9f.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.745d5e4b553f5a4e9d22d0fb1c3a2bcc.jpg

Im sure there will be twists and turns before summer - in particular around the beginning of April - but the behaviour of the jet stream as to how much it pushes north is to be watched, as are the drivers that influence it - I expect the jet stream to take a northerly route again this year, just like last year...

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Looking at tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean next week is shaping up nicely following a bit of a cooler less settled blip this weekend. High pressure then dominates bringing very calm pleasant surface conditions to the majority of the uk with variable cloud and plenty of sunshine around once any early morning mist / fog or low cloud burns away..very mild days but chilly nights. The probable exception to the settled story is the far north being closest to the jet stream to the north between scotland / iceland...eventually there are signs that high pressure will decline away to the southwest with lowering heights to the NW / N with the jet heading south bringing cooler and more unsettled weather with a possibly colder end to march / start of april? but that's a long way off..across the models there is very strong support for mainly very good weather for much of next week. 

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But then again there is that northerly on the pub run T312:

image.thumb.jpg.5d337a93b0e49dda667708d2efe9f327.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.5e430bfdfdebd8f5894362e26f2e6fbb.jpg

I wouldn't rule out some kind of wintery surprise in the first week of April, but it would probably favour only northern areas now.

Edited by Mike Poole
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I have got to give credit to Karl,Matt and a few others for continueing to contribute to this wonderful thread and why not,it has been a long slog over the winter months trying to find some credence out of the cold charts that haven't come off and we have been left dangling this winter with glancing blows to our east only for the rest of Europe to get the golden ticket to cold and snow

but saying all that,we could have a chance at the turn of the month for a cooler/colder shot from the N/NW,the models have been hinting of this with systems tracking NW>SE as was the case at the end of Jan,yes it's getting late into the season but i still wouldn't rule out a cold shot,it has happened before

the latest from cpc 8-14 days shows nothing out of the woodshed but it wouldn't show shots from the north either,the AO does show the oscillation slow down maybe into neg values but thats expected as the pv wains from it's winter state

814day_03.thumb.gif.54640cf7f484005e2b78d3ec033956bc.gifao.sprd2.thumb.gif.36d5f3b80a9d4f75b22fc2ed820515f7.gif

i will keep an eye open on the end of the month,turn of next month on this poss shot of cooler/maybe colder weather from the north in the coming days but it cold all disappear in a puff.

laters.

P.S i think i may have to change my profile pic soon.

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
spell check
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Quite a mild winter up here all in all first winter in 20 years I've not seen a snow drift on the tops.

Not going to see one anytime soon either..

Here's hoping the mild weather will progress into a warm summer.

The charts this winter have not been great imo .

It's been a bit like buying a top shelf mag

With blank pages .😘

 

 

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Outlook - After a short blip high pressure will reestablish from the south west

The 1000-500mb Atlantic thickness chart and surface analysis for midnight and the Eumetsat WV image for 0300

gfs_thickness_natl_1.thumb.png.03a83fd611c953f61661f132d3fdf5fc.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.d567f76fb363579cb04ebb4df3f5f452.gifeumet.thumb.jpg.8bb24aa58d3e15a622afc58c07c2e411.jpg

Following on from a post last evening. The low to the west is undergoing rapid cyclogenesis and will be 953mb north east of Iceland by midnight tonight. The belt of rain associated with the cold front is currently approaching Northern Ireland and western Scotland and this will track south east down the country through today and tonight to be over the south of England by morning. The rain, initially heavy. with become patchy as the front fizzles out en route. It will remain pretty mild and cloudy over England and Wales in the moist air but where the cloud breaks quite warm again. And by morning the cooler air behind the front is over much of the country resulting in some squally showers in the north and some patchy frost.

PPVE89.thumb.gif.082f1c8d343a9fd74fb6140c2831b6f3.gifgfs_thickness_natl_6.thumb.png.870dbe74491ff123ae3abf74007d72b6.png322203662_maxf.thumb.png.fdbb4183b7cbccfae17856d4f60b9459.png

p10.thumb.png.99bd8ad5480bcd97ff3594fc9e7fc4fe.pngp14.thumb.png.f35dbfb43f04569308318b43435b682f.pngp18.thumb.png.724eb326679772c6a6677e1fb6dbe3a3.pngp22.thumb.png.0ff58c1a7e8436fb4ba4c2407431394f.pngp04.thumb.png.0c7d9b1acdc1816ad4ca017c9fa2c1da.pngr10.thumb.png.efba6e135d9d0d6028868afb47a4688f.png

Through Saturday the fading front stalls in the south so remaining cloudy here with some patchy rain but sunnier to the north as the high ridges north east albeit still breezy over Scotland with showers. A bit cooler than of late but still quite warm in places

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A similar scenario pertains over Saturday night and Sunday with the front loitering in the Channel area so still cloudy in the south and sunnier elsewhere. But there is a lot of activity to the west in the Atlantic which forces frontal systems around the ridge so again quite windy with squally showers in the north of Scotland. Temps a tad above average

gfs_z500_vort_natl_11.thumb.png.30bb38f72259a43ad00c492fc83f1320.pngPPVI89.thumb.gif.75def9932dbfbc2530efff5a79aad585.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.57cc877f9b73051b9d9dbed91100af42.gif

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Over the next couple of days the high cell has drifted north east to be centered near southern Ireland so a couple calm and sunny days with some regional variations vis cloud and chilly morning's with perhaps some patchy frost and mist/fog

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Continuing with the gfs. Essentially through next week the high cell drifts east to be over northern Germany by midday Saturday by which time frontal systems are pushing in from the west. This movement does initiate a more southerly drift over the UK so getting increasingly warm by the end of the week

gfs_z500_vort_natl_27.thumb.png.f1647ed7412cae643e15bec9f2353621.pnggfs_z500_vort_natl_31.thumb.png.5ad024d50a6b3445b23c9bb3f3b85fb7.pnggfs_z500_vort_natl_35.thumb.png.bb96085842d4d4cef8d749d12d80a091.pnggfs_t850a_natl_39.thumb.png.3c9dc6c216acc7a5010e15c49e649660.png

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Next week the ecm is on the same wave length as the gfs but starts to differ vis the configuration of the high cell and the ingress of frontal systems from the west. Ergo different detail regarding the change to more unsettled conditions, albeit there would appear to be nothing particularly untoward poised in the woodshed at the moment.with any frontal systems still struggling against the resilient ridge

t204.thumb.png.3cdc8719f52ca4cf5e276eabf47ca58b.png

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The cloud has cleared down here so a cracking morning. I'm off to see Sidney.......I might be a while

index.thumb.png.923b84ed09853fbba2f036f42a0ca7b2.png

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Tentative signs of a more continental drift, later next: image.thumb.png.e9eed32e6e4e5691ae21ca9ef5f08885.png

 

A lovely weekend?                                                      image.thumb.png.50ebcc489a6e748b295ab5702cbfa467.png

 

Showers, from the sarf, perhaps?                              image.thumb.png.2d66bfcd3d254eb8b48bf93ccae0a371.png

 

All-in-all a pretty good run, I'd say: warm sunshine and foehn effect combined...Not so good, should you be maintaining moor-/heath-land...

                                                                                   image.thumb.png.68374f1f1b2775a85929ac5ef07ddd5c.png

GEFS ensembles not too bad, either:                     image.thumb.png.506c9d472d3c2d882013bad5184134b7.png

Edited by Ed Stone
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14 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Looking at tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean next week is shaping up nicely following a bit of a cooler less settled blip this weekend. High pressure then dominates bringing very calm pleasant surface conditions to the majority of the uk with variable cloud and plenty of sunshine around once any early morning mist / fog or low cloud burns away..very mild days but chilly nights. The probable exception to the settled story is the far north being closest to the jet stream to the north between scotland / iceland...eventually there are signs that high pressure will decline away to the southwest with lowering heights to the NW / N with the jet heading south bringing cooler and more unsettled weather with a possibly colder end to march / start of april? but that's a long way off..across the models there is very strong support for mainly very good weather for much of next week. 

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How's it looking for the south coast?  During the warm spell in February there were a number of days when low misty cloud blew in off the channel on southerly winds.

Edited by Evening Star

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The midday geostationary with the intense low over Iceland

PPVA89.thumb.gif.95573e7e4d3b0a977759a2cf3939853e.gifgeo.thumb.JPG.9d420a374e70b866a7057b00a1207f54.JPG

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48 minutes ago, Evening Star said:

How's it looking for the south coast?  During the warm spell in February there were a number of days when low misty cloud blew in off the channel on southerly winds.

You have woken me from my exile.. Lol, the south coast and southern and Eastern areas In general should fair well over the coming days, bar a cooler blip this weekend!! Next week high pressure will be centred over the uk, bringing mainly fine conditions with sunny spells, relatively mild as well. Later next week with the high shifting further East, a more Sthly feed is likely bringing Warmer conditions up from the south, so temps could respond very well.... All in all a decent time for a break on the south  coast, if that's ya preference! Hope that helped. 👍

Edit.. Sorry I missed your point of low cloud off the channel, hopefully it will burn back with the sun gaining that bit more strength, but you can never be certain with cloud amounts from the sea! Well I can't anyway! 🌞😉

Edited by Mattwolves
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53 minutes ago, Evening Star said:

How's it looking for the south coast?  During the warm spell in February there were a number of days when low misty cloud blew in off the channel on southerly winds.

I was going to reply but Mattwolves already has and I couldn't have answered any better..thanks Mattwolves.👍

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2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I was going to reply but Mattwolves already has and I couldn't have answered any better..thanks Mattwolves.👍

Always a pleasure Karl 👍

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GFSP for next Monday and Wednesday: image.thumb.png.f9f326e9df9ec4bf057000c41a627711.png   image.thumb.png.25af6764aa2b37ad322a35ce2c7ddcea.png

 

For Saturday week:                                    image.thumb.png.1512c3eb9f24029df212eb2d04c3ec33.png   image.thumb.png.4bef797ed6b6eb7e548da85fef422ff3.png

 

For T+240:                                                image.thumb.png.1b5e8935c025ef28a4c2e1c2e685f714.png   image.thumb.png.fcb6e779d24cbad1967d536dc163b22e.png

 

For T+384 and still in with a chance:         image.thumb.png.990ea25ccee34ca56862e053a4ac1ef2.png  image.thumb.png.81ea9400893b1afab86870f15b0cef27.png     

A minuscule chance, I know. But a chance is a chance... :oldgood:                  

image.png

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Overview - low pressure will become established to the NW.N overnight as the high pressure ridges north east over the UK.

PPVA89.thumb.gif.16ebf62451d30922244875bb4225f74f.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.9670c9ad9268deb6b47d7e5ddc844ff4.gif

Thus strong and very gusty winds will be the main feature in the north, particularly northern Scotland, with some very wintry showers of rain and hail and even snow on the mountains. Elsewhere the band of rain associated with the cold front, currently over the north of England, will continue to track south east but fizzling out as it goes. The front is likely to stall across southern England by morning so cloud and patchy drizzle/rain will linger here. A chance of some frost in some areas north of the Midlands by morning

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