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Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins

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3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Right folks after a think im calling time on this cold search, it's been fun while it lasted. I don't feel the need to have to keep coming on here and explaining to certain posters why I post 10 day charts and how much of a waste of time it is. I sincerely respect every poster on here including the mods etc. I for one will never come on here to ridicule any poster who posts far fetched weather charts and information, as far as I'm concerned they do it because they enjoy it and they are entitled to their opinions. It's been a blast folk, even though things didn't go to plan... Well for me anyway!! So I wish you all a fantastic and healthy summer and hopefully I will be back in November for another long haul in finding the winter that many, myself included have craved for so long. Thanks folks. Kind regards 👍

I'm sorry but nobody ridiculed anyone let alone you. I merely commented initially that your analogy was a trifle odd. Of course everyone is entitled to an opinion which of course also means people can politely question it. It's called scientific discussion which as far as I'm aware is the raison d'être of the thread

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Posted (edited)

Lol I don't mislead anyone @ poster at bottom of previous page...and on that note here are some cherry picked FI charts showing cold potential..not to be taken as gospel i should add!😉😁:cold::whistling:

3_312_850tmp.png

6_294_850tmp.png

6_384_850tmp.png

17_378_850tmp.png

20_240_850tmp.png

19_240_500mb.png

Edited by Frosty.

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And the GFSP is at it again: 19C likely (somewhere sunny) tomorrow: image.thumb.png.074bde261ce246db84c3160f7875aa6a.png

A settled but none-too-warm weekend: image.thumb.png.73b11cf6ac63b148c7247e26f5a4d80e.png

Possibly wintry showers on Monday:     image.thumb.png.4f7e1c562b6726879d19afc67cc9e0e3.png

 

Benignness is back, by midweek:          image.thumb.png.aff39f01605978e5bc07b97ddc26bf2d.png 

 

But, lo, nastiness is never too far away: image.thumb.png.b51c285adc54859a0a9caf054aef9550.png

 

And then, in a galaxy far far away::shok:    image.thumb.png.fd8edd4387a9edc71c9afab77a3ebca5.png    

 

And lastly, some warmth from the Med?  image.thumb.png.8d90bebd00bd8db3b677524d8c8bb66a.png  

Anyone believe any of that?

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2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Hi john, much respect but could you edit out all those charts from your post to save page space, great charts though..ta👍😉

I did or thought I had, redone it for you mate

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3 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I did or thought I had, redone it for you mate

Cheers mate, I feel bad for even asking.:oldsmile:

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ECM shows the settled spell that's currently developing lasting to about T168:

image.thumb.jpg.2bcab0e025502e08b14b6bd39f793adb.jpg

But to be replaced by something more mobile by T240:

image.thumb.jpg.2f66f897f80e0e0afce510f80225c435.jpg

Just average early spring weather as far as I can see. 

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One or two interesting bits and bobs around on the 12Z output. The very well-forecast anticyclonic spell is upon us but may not prove as durable as earlier forecasts had hoped with another push of Atlantic air into next week. The successive HP cells seek to re-enforce the settled weather especially but not exclusively the south but in the early part of next month we are starting to see some signs of a pattern change.

It does finally look as though the PV is weakening and the cold air is being washed out of NE Canada which in turn slows the Atlantic and allows for heights to build elsewhere. 

One option is to see the trough spread down from the NW:

gfsnh-0-372.thumb.png.3199ac59a5fd2ce7137763955a95a484.png

The parallel goes somewhat further:

gfs-0-336.thumb.png.02a0fee64571997d5710549cb06dba19.png

The Parallel in particular is weakening the PV very sharply into April with the vortex warming and starting to split. Slower, it has to be said, on the OP.

As we know, if you want an Easterly, April or May is the most likely month so nothing desperately unusual as yet. but it's also the time of year with the most interesting synoptics.

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2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I just want to clear something up..when I post Fi charts or cherry pick it's just for fun and I emphasise that, I never deliberately mislead anyone as anyone who knows my style will already know. I do post serious comments and high res charts too but I like to mix it up because I enjoy / love posting on netweather.☺

Yes, Karl, that is very clear from your posts and in my opinion it is totally consistent with the purpose of the thread, until I'm told otherwise by the mods - it's for discussing model output, whatever it shows and however likely to verify.  

Myself, I like to try and be scientific, yes, but as a scientist by day job, it's nice on here to be also able to be able to express enthusiasm for weather that is of interest to me, in the warm and cold seasons anyway, when it shows up on the models.

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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, Karl, that is very clear from your posts and in my opinion it is totally consistent with the purpose of the thread, until I'm told otherwise by the mods - it's for discussing model output, whatever it shows and however likely to verify.  

Myself, I like to try and be scientific, yes, but as a scientist by day job, it's nice on here to be also able to be able to express enthusiasm for weather that is of interest to me, in the warm and cold seasons anyway, when it shows up on the models.

Well thank you for clarifying the purpose of this thread. I have taken note. But I would like to point out that this whole discussion started with a very inoffensive comment by a very respected member of this forum, obviously not me, And I made an equally inoffensive comment to the reply. And any which way you hack it, isolated selected charts 15 days down the line will almost certainly be misleading, deliberate or not. But obviously now that I have been told, this fits fine within the purpose of this thread which is essentially for fun. And just to reiterate, nobody has even hinted that people are not entitled to post what they like, but equally obviously great care must be taken by others if they wish to comment on them

Edited by knocker

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Posted (edited)

ECM mean strongly supporting the flat zonal solution by T240, and that seems consistent with Exeter's view, so I think it will be a fairly short lived but welcome settled warmish spell.

image.thumb.jpg.1db49183a73e01a24ab27a5ea432cef3.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole

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Perhaps there should be a serious model discussion where you are not allowed to have a sense of humour or fun comments and another for the rest of us who prefer a lighter approach and then there wouldn't be any conflict like being accused of misleading other members / guests who come on here to be educated but also entertained as we all share our love for meteorology.

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Perhaps there should be a serious model discussion where you are not allowed to have a sense of humour or fun comments and another for the rest of us who prefer a lighter approach and then there wouldn't be any conflict like being accused of misleading other members / guests who come on here to be educated but also entertained as we all share our love for meteorology.

Good lord. I didn't realize that a semblance of scientific rigor and a sense of humour were mutually exclusive. Just goes to show you are never to old to learn And I feel a deep chagrin that my posts lack any entertainment value.

Edited by knocker

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Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, knocker said:

Good lord. I didn't realize that a semblance of scientific rigor and a sense of humour were mutually exclusive. Just goes to show you are never to old to learn And I feel a deep chagrin that my posts lack any entertainment value.

Let's just all get along knocker (malcolm)..if you don't like what someone posts, just ignore it..put me on ignore then you won't have to endure my input..you probably already have😥..:oldsmile:

 

Edited by Frosty.

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The ext EPS this evening indicates the trough, associated with the Hudson Bay vortex. moving east across Greenland/Iceland ending up running south just to the east of the UK. Thus briefly it was quite zonal albeit with positive anomalies over the Atlantic But the movement east does allow the subtropical high in mid Atlantic to push north once gain resulting in the strong westerly upper flow diverging and weakening in the eastern Atlantic, courtesy of the aforementioned trough This may even favor a SW/NE split, albeit portending relatively quiet with temps a tad below average

5-10.thumb.png.f29ec38858bdb354fa8d3b4dfb414c76.png9-14.thumb.png.4f9394ccbcc1a80ff11b1dd535f1eeca.pngindex.thumb.png.29ee2dcdc6a34a29d472b96c238bf0dc.png

This evening's NOAA is more or less in the same ball park

814day_03.thumb.gif.026d3afdfc9a691abfbe3afad5d14af1.gif

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18 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Let's just all get along knocker (malcolm)..if you don't like what someone posts, just ignore it..put me on ignore then you won't have to endure my input..:oldsmile:

 

Frosty I rarely, if ever, comment on other peoples posts these days. I was only involved in this because I replied to another comment so let's just leave it there.

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Signs of the annual washing out of the PV in the longer time frame - and a shift in its position from NE Canada and towards Greenland and eventually N Siberia, hence no surprise to see the models showing a quick return to unsettled conditions as we enter April with a westerly surge, followed by most likely the mid atlantic ridge building north and then either toppling but with some elongation which would allow an easterly, or conversely a strong trough dropping through the UK on a NW-SE trajectory and we see a flow from the north.

Either way, a bit of a sea saw ride with the current high, up and down, going down over the weekend, back up again next week, back down again of the week - but perhaps not then back up... with the sea saw moved off its pivot... 

April traditionally sees the atlantic enter its annual slumber and we look to the north and east for our weather more so than at any other stage in the year. 

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Posted (edited)

Quite a significant UK high showing on the pub run at T192:

image.thumb.jpg.03ec99b14078172932a64cd7d1dd36b5.jpg

And it is showing some resistance to the zonal train at T240, which is at odds with the ECM and its ensembles:

image.thumb.jpg.131db44ba018779cbc86de6927be6c5f.jpg

Keeps the jet stream north:

image.thumb.jpg.d332c04db06f050a2e1c04d27f58dcb4.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole

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The Gfs 18z operational looks anticyclonic next week, on the face of it these are lovely charts and the surface conditions look very pleasant with variable amounts of cloud and sunny spells but with chilly nights, cold enough for a touch of frost and a risk of mist / fog patches too.

18_165_mslp500.png

18_189_mslp500.png

18_213_mslp500.png

18_213_uk2mtmp.png

18_213_ukcloud.png

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Posted (edited)

The Gfs 18z operational deep into low res brings a glancing blow from the arctic across the far N / NE..❄️

18_360_mslp850.png

18_360_preciptype.png

18_372_ukthickness850.png

Edited by Frosty.

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Outlook - High pressure remaining the overwhelming influence but systems will ingress the north west from time to time.

The 1000-500mb thickness and surface analysis for midnight and the 0500 surface chart

gfs_thickness_natl_1.thumb.png.d602a1fe0b4cc0df5b52dbf1c24dd6f2.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.5aedfb90b033a73438c574ba1ca8bd4c.gif05.thumb.gif.78bf3263922f45db8fb952eac50cf6ab.gif

As can be seen from the charts above the country is under warm and moist high pressure and thus quite cloudy with mist and low cloud in central and south eastern areas  The cloud will tend to hang around all day but where it clears it could be quite warm again, particularly in the north east Apart from some bits and bobs of rain/drizzle in western coastal regions any rain will be over the north of Scotland, courtesy of the cold front.

690975569_maxt.thumb.png.1c0e43e45c7c364dfc2cd7ac6c122269.pngp15.thumb.png.37d3807dbafe5eecc107234fae071fac.pngp18.thumb.png.a5f630a78a65a152f667ece005a4de62.png

But as can be seen a wave is developing on the front away to the south west and that develops and tracks rapidly north east through the afternoon and evening to be 970mb more or less over old weather station 'India' by midnight This movement drags the front back north so the persistent rain will clear northern Scotland during the evening whilst the everywhere else remains cloudy with rain/drizzle again in western regions. By dawn more cloud and rain will be edging into N. Ireland and western Scotland from the new cold front associated with the low and the winds will be strengthening.

PPVE89.thumb.gif.99861d6e14941d03128c6252b6129eb5.gifr07.thumb.png.ba13fba3cb3ef597a792c70517eb2673.png

Through Friday the low will continue to deepen and track east of Iceland whilst the cold front tracks slowly southeast accompanied by the band of rain leaving clearer. and very windy showery weather in it's wake, But still fairly humid and cloudy south of it, but again with breaks in the cloud it could get quite warm, more particularly in the south east this time.

PPVG89.thumb.gif.86eb0e8e59e51c53e2db3c77f7b843f7.gifr10.thumb.png.21bef73affe9cc986f9b3e01e666a06a.pngr13.thumb.png.a2e66354ab0a8cc0924cf247bf1ef403.pngr18.thumb.png.651daa9d6b2213e6762e99e8cccc6469.png1899370155_maxf.thumb.png.b5e9aa39761c88dd344441828157e1b0.png

Over Friday night and through saturday the front will continue to meander south clearing the south coast by the afternoon but by now just some intermittent light rain on it. But still quite windy with squally showers in the north. Temps  now around average

PPVI89.thumb.gif.04e201aa1ddf730296732d55107b2ba1.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.110a0a00a115d4258d529cf2c07d3a9f.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_12.thumb.png.8939c0d564731079da950d1deb2e3c0f.png

By Sunday we are entering the next phase of the evolution with an upper trough tracking along the eastern seaboard and phasing with the Canadian vortex in the north west Atlantic. This initiates more amplification of the subtropical high in mid Atlantic but not before another cold front slips down over the north of Scotland with some more patchy rain. Cloud and sunny intervals elsewhere with temps around average

gfs_z500a_nh_15.thumb.png.775bf1f16152076fbfd099b6cbf25fb6.pngPPVM89.thumb.gif.f0ba88589d5f9090feec41ff45e81e08.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_16.thumb.png.4fc4b5ebf8eae123674b6b3f1ab8f192.png

By Monday the high cell is centered south of Ireland with a lot of energy swinging around it so the best of the weather in the south west with some patchy rain associated with the weakening warm front that has tracked across the north and possible showers in the quite strong wind down eastern coastal areas Temps now a tad above average but cooler down the east coast

gfs_z500_vort_natl_19.thumb.png.78caf42149da0ea842526427867e4f40.pngPPVO89.thumb.gif.31c99226b60d87d9d94e10da4755c7cf.gifgfs_t2m_a_f_uk2_20.thumb.png.dec2868ee5192e382260b4b783c987e9.png

 

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And according to the gfs the high cell will drift east through next week thus remaining dry just about everywhere with regional variations vis the cloud and temperature. But generally the latter above average and quite warm where the cloud breaks.

gefs_t2ma_5d_eur_41.thumb.png.a8b405f6612e75b6aa074bfc216d76e2.png

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The ecm is quite similar to the gfs for a while post the short range but the energy from the west starts becoming more influential from around the t192 mark and by the end has eroded the ridge

t192.thumb.png.68919271b28ec3ab2555be5793b2d1b2.pngt216.thumb.png.db1af8f14d116dc8cbba149214b83b74.pngt240.thumb.png.6ce2140453d2484db4df08f0c41e2e1a.png

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