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Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins


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Looking towards the spring equinox the Gfs 00z operational becomes very spring-like with high pressure and a southerly breeze with temperatures into the mid teens celsius range..perhaps upper teens c

Morning all, So, a big pattern change is on the way, as the blocking area of high pressure over Europe the last 7 days slips south to allow Atlantic lows and frontal systems in from the west acro

Right folks after a think im calling time on this cold search, it's been fun while it lasted. I don't feel the need to have to keep coming on here and explaining to certain posters why I post 10 day c

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2 hours ago, Alexis said:

I see the Met Office are pushing Storm Freya on Sunday much further north than the BBC's new model of choice.

Going through the ECM ensembles, this looks a tricky one to forecast. The op is in a small cluster that do not develop the storm much (just coastal gales in the SW), but the majority of the ensembles develop it much more. The consensus is a hit on Wales with around 80mph gusts on the coasts, but the envelope is landfall anywhere from Cornwall to SW Scotland as it curves through the Bristol Channel / Irish Sea. Wind speeds not severe on most ensemble members (60-80mph at worst), but there's perhaps 10% of runs taking gusts over 100mph at landfall and pushing quite severe winds a long way inland.

The Met Office weather warning looks to have covered the main areas of risk pretty well, though the envelope will shrink over the next 24 hours as the track is firmed up.

Further on - no sign of anything exceptionally mild or cold in the ensembles all the way out to mid-March - a train of lows between Iceland and Scotland looks likely for the next two weeks, on and off.

Edited by Man With Beard
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Some one alert the tabloids, the CFS has latched on to a possible SSW and ultra quick trop response! Just what is going on here, major height rises over Greenland and - 8 uppers widely! Is this experimental model gonna be having the last laugh at us coldie hunters expense! Nice thought though, however far fetched. ?

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18 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Going through the ECM ensembles, this looks a tricky one to forecast. The op is in a small cluster that do not develop the storm much (just coastal gales in the SW), but the majority of the ensembles develop it much more. The consensus is a hit on Wales with around 80mph gusts on the coasts, but the envelope is landfall anywhere from Cornwall to SW Scotland as it curves through the Bristol Channel / Irish Sea. Wind speeds not severe on most ensemble members (60-80mph at worst), but there's perhaps 10% of runs taking gusts over 100mph at landfall and pushing quite severe winds a long way inland.

The Met Office weather warning looks to have covered the main areas of risk pretty well, though the envelope will shrink over the next 24 hours as the track is firmed up.

Further on - no sign of anything exceptionally mild or cold in the ensembles all the way out to mid-March - a train of lows between Iceland and Scotland looks likely for the next two weeks, on and off.

Looks pretty naff, doesn't it. The whole northern hemisphere has more or less flattened out, with a strong AO forecast until the middle of the month at least. Perhaps hints of it relaxing after, but no signs of any early spring cold or a repeat of the late February warmth. Bog standard UK weather for 2 weeks - wet and windy, alternating between cool and mild.

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Thank goodness that vile winter is over..now it's spring the Gfs 12z indicates a chance of seeing some snow in places next week..I've gone all weak at the knees now!??

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As you can see by the 12z 2m temp profiles, quite a contrast through the upcoming week, at times its cold enough for snow especially further north, but those in the south and SE maybe wondering what all the fuss is about! At times it's also quite mild to the south! 

Edit... Also a slight increase in the 12z ensembles compared to recent days. 

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Edited by Mattwolves
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Don't mind if we get some snow during March but I also don't mind if it goes to the midlands and the north just this once because I've had my fair share of snow and a picture-postcard Cotswold winter weekend and I'd like this winter season to be enjoyable for others too. ❄️?

Edited by Leon1
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1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Gets even better through low res..think I'm going to hyperventilate!:help:?

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Even those of us south of the M4 corridor are in the game again, lol! 

Edited by Don
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Taking a brief look post this weekends shenanigans with the ecm. At t96 the remnants of the original low  are still around centred over N. Ireland so the UK still in a brisk unstable westerly with a low of squally showers in western region, particularly in the north west. But another trough has arrived in mid Atlantic which is begriming to phase with the one in situ By t120 the whole caboodle is starting to deconstruct as the subtropical high surges to the west and the surface front and low are running up the Channel into the low countries/, by t144 there is a transient ridge over the UK with the next front west of Ireland ready to traverse the country, which it duly does but weakening as it goes.

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1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

 

Edit... Also a slight increase in the 12z ensembles compared to recent days

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New season, same theme with anything resembling cold gradually watered down to nowt!

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8 minutes ago, Don said:

New season, same theme with anything resembling cold gradually watered down to nowt!

Indeed but to me it doesn't matter now, I will happily take cold or warm now that bad joke of a winter is over..I'm not going to worry about downgrades like I did while suffering for the last 3 months..the models show a chance of snow  which would be quite a novelty if it happens for most of the uk which saw pretty much zilch during dec, jan and feb.

Edited by Frosty.
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5 minutes ago, Don said:

New season, same theme with anything resembling cold gradually watered down to nowt!

Just looking at the overall theme from ecm, and as a whole we don't get much colder uppers than - 5c. It's mainly cold maritime shots, also ecm makes less of a deal of low pressure clearing east and dragging in some much colder temps at around day 6 or 7. Either way Don I suspect there will be a few surprises along the way, there always is during these type of set ups! Anyway you got your snow fix, now give me mine! ???

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1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Indeed but to me it doesn't matter now, I will happily take cold or warm now that bad joke of a winter is over..I'm not going to worry about downgrades like I did while suffering for the last 3 months..the models show a chance of snow  which would be quite a novelty for most of the uk which saw pretty much zilch during dec, jan and feb.

Yes, it would be good for those who didn't see any snow during the winter period to see some during spring.  I don't recall seeing any snow during winter 2007/8 but then saw some in March and April 2008.  It was a similar story in 1988/89.  Saw a little snow in late February, but had a decent fall on April 5th 1989.

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15 minutes ago, Don said:

Even those of us south of the M4 corridor are in the game again, lol! 

What that dreaded m4 snow shield barrier!! Time to put that myth to bed, it's now the dreaded m6 snow shield! ?

Edited by Mattwolves
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Just now, Mattwolves said:

What that dreaded m4 snow shield barrier!! Time to put that myth to bed, it's now the dreaded m6 snows shield! ?

Yes, I have to admit, credit where it's due the M4 snow shield barrier was absent this winter!

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1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

What that dreaded m4 snow shield barrier!! Time to put that myth to bed, it's now the dreaded m6 snow shield! ?

Its the M62 snow shield that Similar to a young bullses us.

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32 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

To be honest short term , Sundays low really is potentially a very nasty affair ,  A wind maker rather than a rain maker..

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Sunday's storm Freya is a very interesting one, not only gusts of 60,70 to possibly 80mph but also very  heavy  rain and for some higher hills, a risk of heavy wet snow.

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38 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its the M62 snow shield that Similar to a young bullses us.

What on earth are you talking about? One place that cannot really complain about snow is saddleworth! Enough of everyone going on about their nonsensical 'snow shield'

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