Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins

[Azazel]

I really hope none of these cold charts come off at this point.

5-6 degrees with cold rain in April fills me with absolute dread.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

4 minutes ago, Azazel said:

I really hope none of these cold charts come off at this point.

5-6 degrees with cold rain in April fills me with absolute dread.

Come on azazel, one last hoorahh for the cold camp. 4 months and counting. Surely we deserve something.... Us coldies! I like your name by the way, you sound like an arc angel.

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, Azazel said:

I really hope none of these cold charts come off at this point.

5-6 degrees with cold rain in April fills me with absolute dread.

You can easily get snow in April and to a lesser extent may..and although it's extremely difficult, snow did stop play in a cricket match in early June 1975..anyway, with a few more tweaks, cold potential could increase dramatically..interesting output.

[Azazel]

Just now, Mattwolves said:

Come on azazel, one last hoorahh for the cold camp. 4 months and counting. Surely we deserve something.... Us coldies! I like your name by the way, you sound like an arc angel.

I wouldn't mind a proper snow event for you guys, of course - you're a fair bit further north than me! Tell you what, if you guarantee me a hot summer, i'll let you have one last cold snap;)

[MATTWOLVES 3]

It's in the bag azazel, some promising signs, perhaps Mike Poole will come on at some point to fill you in, but he is along the thinking we could be in for a very nice summer.

[SLEETY]

20 minutes ago, Azazel said:

I really hope none of these cold charts come off at this point.

5-6 degrees with cold rain in April fills me with absolute dread.

Maybe, but you didn’t think temps hitting 70f in February  for goodness sake would mean some sort of payback was inevitable later on down the line? Upto end of April snow can fall and settle anywhere in the U.k.,so still six weeks left

[Azazel]

23 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Maybe, but you didn’t think temps hitting 70f in February  for goodness sake would mean some sort of payback was inevitable later on down the line? Upto end of April snow can fall and settle anywhere in the U.k.,so still six weeks left

Of course I did, I knew it was basically inevitable. It probably made things worse because it whetted my appetite for spring/summer far too early!

[mb018538]

Wouldn't bank on it...ECM ensembles are getting keen to start turning things more unsettled again as we head into April:



Looks like the Atlantic might be coming back after a 10 day hiatus to end March...

[Methuselah]

I wouldn't be inclined to bank on anything, peeps; and that goes as much for the last-chance-freezer as it does for the first 80F of the season:

Edited March 19, 2019 by Ed Stone

[MATTWOLVES 3]

That cold blob is once again heading to the place we would least want it, story of a miserable season though ain't it folks! 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The para serving us up another shot from the North, looks temporary though! 

[Mike Poole]

1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

It's in the bag azazel, some promising signs, perhaps Mike Poole will come on at some point to fill you in, but he is along the thinking we could be in for a very nice summer.

I wouldn't say anything is in the bag at this range!  I'm just going off the long range models at the moment, particularly GloSea5.  The outer quintiles 2m temperature plots for June-August are interesting from the March update, particularly when you compare with what the same model was showing in March 2018.  Here, 2019 on left, 2018 on right:

 

Both showing a high probability of well above normal temperatures, but the signal for the UK is actually stronger this year than last.  One thing that is different this year compared to last is the sea surface temperatures around the UK, which last year were depressed due to the Beast From the East, this year they are much warmer, here 2019 (now) on left, 2018 on right:

Headstart?  But I should sound the note of caution that there is a much less clear signal re precipitation in the modelling at the moment.

I will be interested to read the Met Office view on the seasonal modelling on their contingency planners forecast when it is out in a week or so's time.

Edited March 19, 2019 by Mike Poole

[johnholmes]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I wouldn't say anything is in the bag at this range!  I'm just going off the long range models at the moment, particularly GloSea5.  The outer quintiles 2m temperature plots for June-August are interesting from the March update, particularly when you compare with what the same model was showing in March 2018.  Here, 2019 on left, 2018 on right:

 

Both showing a high probability of well above normal temperatures, but the signal for the UK is actually stronger this year than last.  One thing that is different this year compared to last is the sea surface temperatures around the UK, which last year were depressed due to the Beast From the East, this year they are much warmer, here 2019 (now) on left, 2018 on right:

I will be interested to read the Met Office view on the seasonal modelling on their contingency planners forecast when it is out in a week or so's time.

Those N Sea temperature differences 2018-2019 are really very marked.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Good post Mike, and a good point about current sea temperatures, throughout the season we have had a distinct lack of cold uppers travelling across our close by water! Makes you think how hot we could get even with an Easterly this summer. 

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

Maybe, but you didn’t think temps hitting 70f in February  for goodness sake would mean some sort of payback was inevitable later on down the line? Upto end of April snow can fall and settle anywhere in the U.k.,so still six weeks left

Yes. The last 2.5 weeks lol.

Latest I’ve seen lying snow is 14th April 1999 and that time it fell at the coldest part of the 24 hour period. It’ll have to be pretty exceptional for something like that again.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

10 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Yes. The last 2.5 weeks lol.

Latest I’ve seen lying snow is 14th April 1999 and that time it fell at the coldest part of the 24 hour period. It’ll have to be pretty exceptional for something like that again.

April 2008 was the last time we had significant lying snow, mainly in southern parts though. Its gonna take a massive effort to get it this year though... The dice just keep on falling in the wrong place! If we would have been playing roulette this winter we would have made the casino rich, and bloody bankrupt ourselves! 

 

 

[MP-R]

12 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

April 2008 was the last time we had significant lying snow, mainly in southern parts though. Its gonna take a massive effort to get it this year though... The dice just keep on falling in the wrong place! If we would have been playing roulette this winter we would have made the casino rich, and bloody bankrupt ourselves! 

 

 

Ah yes forgot about that one. Had all gone by 10am haha. It was a good effort though.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we just get a cool/cold anticyclonic flow with frost at night but bright days.

[knocker]

The sun shines on the most deserving and low and behold the cloud cleared over God's Little Acre resulting in a cracking morning

[Frosty.]

According to the GEFS 6z mean next week looks pleasantly warm and anticyclonic but with chilly nights where skies clear bringing a risk of a touch of frost and mist / fog patches..beyond next week the signal is to trend more changeable / unsettled with the jet heading south.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Plenty of colder options on the 6z ensembles. Would have to be pretty hardcore to get significant cold and lying snow now though! 

[Frosty.]

10 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Plenty of colder options on the 6z ensembles. Would have to be pretty hardcore to get significant cold and lying snow now though! 

Agreed, just looking through the GEFS 6z postage stamps there are colder options once the unsettled weather eventually arrives and the chance of snow or at least wintry ppn increases but mainly for northern uk and hills and that's very hit and miss but at least some interest longer term for hard-core coldies..very few of us left now sadly but that's very understandable...hope next winters chase is more successful!

Edited March 19, 2019 by Frosty.

[cheeky_monkey]

3 hours ago, Frosty. said:

You can easily get snow in April and to a lesser extent may..and although it's extremely difficult, snow did stop play in a cricket match in early June 1975..anyway, with a few more tweaks, cold potential could increase dramatically..interesting output.

does that mean the hunt for cold goes on until June??

[Frosty.]

Something for the coldies..not a lot but better than nowt!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

28 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

does that mean the hunt for cold goes on until June??

Well personally CM I would hunt for cold in March, beyond that it becomes pretty pointless, because you would need extreme uppers and any snow that falls is gonna be very short lived. Has regards to June, well my hunt for warmth and heat will be well underway by then... My attentions won't turn back to cold till November! And tbh if the winter would have delivered something more meaningful during the appropriate season, I wouldn't even be in the hunt for it right now. There is nothing of any real note to suggest we are gonna endure any kind of significant cold snap over the coming days, so perhaps that's pretty much it for most on here now.

Edited March 19, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Methuselah]

57 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Well personally CM I would hunt for cold in March, beyond that it becomes pretty pointless, because you would need extreme uppers and any snow that falls is gonna be very short lived. Has regards to June, well my hunt for warmth and heat will be well underway by then... My attentions won't turn back to cold till November! And tbh if the winter would have delivered something more meaningful during the appropriate season, I wouldn't even be in the hunt for it right now. There is nothing of any real note to suggest we are gonna endure any kind of significant cold snap over the coming days, so perhaps that's pretty much it for most on here now.

That seems a very reasonable way of looking at things, Matt. Unless it's something akin to late April 1981 (snow lying for two consecutive days) or Easter 1975 (snow falling on Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday) cold after mid-March is often more of a nuisance than a pleasure...

Anywho, we'll get whatever we'll get, whether we like or not!

Edited March 19, 2019 by Ed Stone