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Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

A bit of a dogs body from the para towards the end, by this time it looks more unsettled and often chilly, wouldn't be much of a surprise for April to be honest! 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

As I mentioned earlier today, the idea of an arctic outbreak either towards the end of march or early april can't be ruled out, the Gfs 00z showed it, the 6z flirted with it and now the 12z attempts it a few times but largely fails as far as the uk is concerned but who is to say there won't / can't be a direct hit at some point?!!..not a sniff of it from exeter but that doesn't mean its ruled out!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The difference between the ecm this morning and this evening's gfs is stark as early as t168.The gfs continues to make much more of the amplification post the vortex lobe dropping into the NW Atlantic. Await this evening's ecm

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
14 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

As I mentioned earlier today, the idea of an arctic outbreak either towards the end of march or early april can't be ruled out, the Gfs 00z showed it, the 6z flirted with it and now the 12z attempts it a few times but largely fails as far as the uk is concerned but who is to say there won't / can't be a direct hit at some point?!!..not a sniff of it from exeter but that doesn't mean its ruled out!!!not a sniff of it from exeter but that mean ruled out!!!

Lets see what ecm delivers, I'm not sure exter take a great deal of interest in gfs, especially the 6 and 18z! Sure they look at all the models and then run them through a super computer which probably calculates the most probable outcome. Where a lot of folk on here will take gfs as gospel, largely due to the sheer amount of free data that is available with it.

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
6 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Lets see what ecm delivers, I'm not sure exter take a great deal of interest in gfs, especially the 6 and 18z! Sure they look at all the models and then run them through a super computer which probably calculates the most probable outcome. Where a lot of folk on here will take gfs as gospel, largely due to the sheer amount of free data that is available with it.

Agreed, and I certainly never take the gfs as gospel, or any model for that matter but over the years I've noticed the gfs is sometimes good at spotting trends in far off FI, then dropping it and then returning to it which is why I'm hoping it's hints at an arctic outbreak prove right before it's all too late..:cold:❄️

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Agreed, and I certainly never take the gfs as gospel, or any model for that matter but over the years I've noticed the gfs is sometimes good at spotting trends in far off FI, then dropping it and then returning to it which is why I'm hoping it's hints at an arctic outbreak prove right before it's all too late..:cold:❄️

Yeh good point, and to mention it may have been the icon that picked up on the beast from the east last year, and also the model that ditched the Easterly back in January. Its a petty we don't get to see more data from ecm and especially UKMO.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 12z is toying with arctic scenarios further down the road..enough to keep me interested!❄️

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Potential heights building over scandy by day 10...dont ask me where that takes us.... I'm just the messanger!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Chilly weekend on Ecm 12z:cold-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the extended GEFS 12z mean there are indications that the upcoming predominantly settled spell will crumble in the last days of march and spilling into early april, becoming more changeable / unsettled and temperatures nothing to write home about..however, this doesn't make it necessarily so, there are still some anticyclonic perturbations but on balance, many more unsettled with even a small chance of an arctic incursion  or two.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Cold out east not too far away on ECM tonight, as we head further into spring could be one to watch over the next few runs, and sums up the frustrating of model watching over the winter months, when any cold air out east very rarely makes it over to the UK

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

During the he latter stages of the ecm det run it was looking to promote a Scandinavian ridge and the mean EPS is not adverse to that idea either.

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Cold may anyone?? Don't think this chart would get many folk going if it were to come off! Talk about fi, this is positively outer space.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

On the face of it, these are still pleasant settled looking charts from the extended Ecm 12z ensemble mean, especially further south and east..this weekend looks colder though..as did the operational. The main issue this week will be cloud, there's likely to be a lot of it but with  milder uppers and any sunny spells it will feel warm..until that change from the w / nw for fri / sat / sun.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Outlook - A relatively quiet period over the next few days and relatively mild, even becoming warm, but in the very moist W/SW drift a fair amount of cloud. Again the north west being the exception as fronts sneak around the ridge so periods of rain here and quite windy at times

The NH 500mb profile and the Atlantic surface analysis for midnight and the 0500 UK chart

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A cloudy and mild start to the day with a lot of low cloud, mist and fog around in England and Wales. And with weakening fronts across the country much of which will be in warm sector conditions, cloud and mist will be with some patchy rain/drizzle in the north and west will be the scenario through today and overnight. Possibly some breaks in the cloud in eastern and central regions but in any case quite mild with no chance of frost by morning. But as can be seen a wave is forming on the cold front at 30W

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The wave tracks north east during tomorrow to be over old weather station 'India' at midday, the movement of which drags the cold front back north east as a warm front. The country is still in a moist westerly drift so remaining cloudy with some patchy drizzle in the west but further to the east where the cloud breaks, temps rising a fair bit above average

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The wave continues to track north east into Sweden overnight and through Thursday with the associated waving cold front trailing all the way back to be  west of the Azores,and just impinging on Scotland, thus some patchy rain here. Elsewhere pretty cloudy still but another very warm day with temps again well above average.

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Little change over Thursday night into Friday except another wave is forming on the front

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The wave continues to form and by midday Friday is just north of Scotland with the cold front Western Isles > western Ireland with rain into these areas, The front and the patchy rain will move slowly south east during the rest of the day but still very warm south of it.

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The front continue to make slow progress south on Saturday so at the moment it's looking like clearer weather to the north with some patchy rain still on the front and remaining warm south of it.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

To continue with the gfs and we now come to the tricky bit. The vortex lobe drops into the NW Atlantic promoting another burst from the subtropical high whilst at the same time relegating a wave that has formed on the trailing front, south east to a low pressure area off the NW African coast. Temps now around average but wet and windy in the north

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Over the next 48 hours the refreshed high cell adjust east to be over the UK with the low pressure off the coast of MW Africa playing, it would seem, a not insignificant role Temps  perhaps a tad above average but with some diurnal spread The ridge remains 'propped' up until day ten but the energy is forcing systems around the north of it, 

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

On Sunday the ecm has a low tracking east north of Scotland with front(s) bringing very wet and windy weather to the north  But promotion of the subtropical high is also underway and the low ducks south east on Monday into southern Norway initiating some strong northerly winds down the North Sea and to a lesser extent over the UK

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From this point the amplifying ridge comes under a lot of pressure from the energy in the west and re orientates north east across the UK. The new energy distribution forces the aforementioned trough down into western Europe whilst at the same time advecting much colder air south west as far as France in the south  The UK is on the periphery of this so temps falling below average by the end of the run

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There is obviously a lot of uncertainty post t120 so confidence in detail is low

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

Some awesome posts in here. From @knocker‘s insightful morning summaries to MattWolves and Frosty’s amusing banter and model run analysis. Other posts from various other members make for a delightful read, too. Keep on rock and rolling with the brill work! 

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Posted
  • Location: Glyn Ceiriog. 197m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow in winter, good sun at other times with appropriate rain.
  • Location: Glyn Ceiriog. 197m ASL
11 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Some awesome posts in here. From @knocker‘s insightful morning summaries to MattWolves and Frosty’s amusing banter and model run analysis. Other posts from various other members make for a delightful read, too. Keep on rock and rolling with the brill work! 

Quite agree DRG,  enjoy Knockers posts, and yet, wistfully wishing for snow risks so Frosty and MattWolves can continue to post

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

I seem to have woken up from hibernation because the ECM is starting to catch my eye . Nice run on the 00z . Just need the high further west and north , then we’ll have one last shot at winter proper . 

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

ecm even closer with the easterly than it was last night,are we about to see our first decent easterly of the year as we head towards April,most probably,just enough time left for snow even on low ground,awaiting the next run with renewed interest ❄️

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Although the ext mean EPS this morning has positive anomalies northern Scandinavia associated with an east European ridge and a trough in the east Mediterranean the upper flow is essentially westerly over the UK before diverging a tad. This doesn't portend anything drastic but perhaps still tending towards a N/S split with temps around average but below over Europe.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
29 minutes ago, snefnug said:

wistfully wishing for snow risks so Frosty and MattWolves can continue to post

I post all year round so unless something bad happens to me, there's no danger of me not posting in spring, summer, autumn and winter

Anyway, some cold interest that's not deep FI is creeping into the models.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Looking at the 500 mb anomaly charts a week since I last showed them and

Tuesday 19 March

So 7 days later

Ec-gfs shows, (both) similar re positions ridgfing, strength and also position trough although gfs looks a deeper affair, the result would be for uk reasonably settled although gfs looks maybe touch less so as perhaps shade more mobile into its version of the European trough; both have had similar charts for several days

Noaa and again its 6-10 looks fairly similar with the centre of gravity of the +ve heights shown over/close by s’ern uk, again a similar idea to its last few days along with a ridge in the 500 mb contours, a nw-se split probable with little flow the further se one lives in the uk. Its 8-14 shows the ridge (less marked as it usually does at this time scale but also further east) with rather more flow in the se than earlier.

Overall then the surface weather fairly settled for a week-10 days, especially so for the se quarter of the uk, but most places should be less changeable than recently for some and with temperatures at or above normal.

Just one possibility if the ridge ends up east of the uk, the dreaded low cloud for some eastern parts might, note might, develop!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Edited by johnholmes
usual poor spelling
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

So this is the little chap that awoken some interest this morning! Not gonna take much alteration North and West to get us in the game!! Come on blue blob I'm actually blowing on the chart now, trying desperately to get it across us! 

ECM0-192.gif

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