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Paul

Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins

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The ecm interpretation of the evolution post the short range is a little different to the gfs. It has a front tracking south east down the country Frid/Sat with some quite wet and windy weather in the north  But then further front(s) running east Sat > Sunday with more rain and strong winds in that area. And then over Monday > Tuesday further fronts bring more heavy rain to the north with strong winds  In fact generally quite windy across the country  The upshot of all this is that it appears that although the trough drops into the NW Atlantic as per the gfs, the energy distribution vis the European trough rather curtails any strong ridging of the subtropical high in the eastern Atlantic and thus a high cell settling in the vicinity of the UK

t150.thumb.png.f4706906fa4210fd77983a398e655a28.pngt186.thumb.png.1321e1163b78c04e01bd43cb34c265b0.pngjet.thumb.png.08decbfd455f9711c51d928313fd19b0.png

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Nice charts ..FI but nice all the same!👍

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Maybe April will turn out to be the coldest & snowiest month!

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More like April's fool!

😂

Edited by Purga

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Looking at the GEFS 00z postage stamps..there's even some snow potential into early april. not a lot, as Paul Daniels used to say..but a chance at least..I wouldn't rule out a white Easter actually, surely some of that bottled up bitter cold arctic air will head our way before it's scientifically impossible for some of this lovely stuff!!❄😉

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Edited by Frosty.

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An interesting looking end to the 00Z: some very cold air threatening from the North; some increasingly warm air building down by the Mediterranean?

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ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019031712_240.

From the looks of these, the 00z ECM is outside the spread of the 12z EPS from yesterday with how much it weakened the ridging through the UK D9-D10.

Once available, the 00z EPS of today will need examining for any loss trend of HP amplification across the UK.

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Much better 6z overall, especially low res, more anticyclonic and pleasantly warm..glancing blow Northerly at the end so the idea of an arctic shot at some point at the end of march or early april can't be ruled out but in the meantime this is an improving week..away from the far nw / n.

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For anyone hoping for some overdue excitement, I think the 20-24C uppers building over North Africa might be suggestive of some interesting plume-potential, as we move through April and into early May🙏...In the meantime, it might even snow!:oldgood:

 

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29 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Much better 6z overall, especially low res, more anticyclonic and pleasantly warm..glancing blow Northerly at the end so the idea of an arctic shot at some point at the end of march or early april can't be ruled out but in the meantime this is an improving week..away from the far nw / n.

Ecm a bit mehhh overall don't you think Karl? Some improvement later this week, much cooler by weekend, a bit warmer early next week, and kind of finishing with a slack pressure flow! In the middle of no man's land! Cold air to the west and east with more average conditions in-between! Not really had a gander at the 6z! 👍

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Clusters this morning strongly favouring a warm spell for the end of the month, IMO:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019031800_168.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019031800_240.

Stalled trough in the Atlantic = eventual southerly draw, and potentially a strong one - this is suggested on all clusters except the op cluster, which is almost an outlier by D10. Could turn into a weak easterly but unlikely to have much bite now.

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6 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Ecm a bit mehhh overall don't you think Karl? Some improvement later this week, much cooler by weekend, a bit warmer early next week, and kind of finishing with a slack pressure flow! In the middle of no man's land! Cold air to the west and east with more average conditions in-between! Not really had a gander at the 6z! 👍

A bit of everything on the 00z ECM it's fair to say.

Some areas in the south should be around 18c on Thursday then back closer to average over the weekend as some slightly cooler air moves in

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12 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Ecm a bit mehhh overall don't you think Karl

Yes it's a mixed bag but some of the bags content is very pleasant👍

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Edited by Frosty.

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28 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Clusters this morning strongly favouring a warm spell for the end of the month, IMO:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019031800_168.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019031800_240.

Stalled trough in the Atlantic = eventual southerly draw, and potentially a strong one - this is suggested on all clusters except the op cluster, which is almost an outlier by D10. Could turn into a weak easterly but unlikely to have much bite now.

With the usual proviso that I find transferring these map projections into a NH context above my pay grade I'm afraid I really fail to see how you are inferring an easterly out the clusters this morning with the Atlantic trough being the dominant feature  Again I find it difficult to assimilate five days of clusters but i find nothing to contradict the trend more towards zonal

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But still looking at temps above average

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Edited by knocker

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Something for the coldies!👍

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This wouldn't look out of place in January!

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Just look at the scatter on the ensembles! Warm conditions far from a done deal if Gefs is anything to go by! Perhaps one more potent cold shot in the locker! Clock is ticking...... Tick tock... 

Edit.. Clock has been ticking for 4 months, my watch as one hell of a stop watch! ⌚

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Edited by Mattwolves

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1 hour ago, 492 said:

Meteociel - Cartes du modèle numérique GFS pour l'Europe

GFS still showing extreme cold to our NW over next few days.

Apologies if chart doesn't appear..not yet fathomed how to upload charts from my tablet!

Try pressing down on screen for a second or 2, it should  come up download image. 

Edited by Mattwolves

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1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

This wouldn't look out of place in January!

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We saw lots of charts like that in January and at that time frame

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A glancing blow to the SE, the cold plume seems to be travelling south, - 8c uppers clipping the SE

 

This could become an interesting stand off if it was to get its act together! 

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Edited by Mattwolves

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Interesting Gfs 12z operational regarding next week which is dominated by high pressure and most of next week looks bone dry but  an arctic surge south further east starts to bring a chill to the UK due to the position and orientation of the high but although it becomes colder it looks quite clear with plenty of sunshine for many..so, starting mild next week but temps then falling below average.

Edited by Frosty.

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