Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
21 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM at T 240:

image.thumb.jpg.00f0431d1d1f5adf9c110fa1f5afc15a.jpg

Its fascinating to me that this kind of settled scenario can be nailed by the models up to 10 days out, but that snow bringing scenarios in winter are always subject to uncertainty until 4 days out.   Obviously we will have to see how this evolution goes, but I have high confidence in the development of a settled spell, and longer implications for late spring and early summer to be a northerly flowing jet once again. 

Amazing ain't it Mike, how high pressure can set up in a favourable position to bring us warmer conditions from the south, the south east and even east when it gets to March, April onwards, but we can never seem to get heights to set up shop to our NW or NE!! during the winter months! The models seem that unfamiliar with a cold type scenario setting up, that they really do struggle with it beyond a few days! 

Edited by Mattwolves
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Wow that's EMPHATIC support..!!..it's disappointing that the winter total fail has spilled into spring but I guess it's par for the course where uk coldies are concerned, however, I don't think anyone would really be unhappy about warm anticyclonic weather..I hope this verifies!!

need to qualify this.....what has been a 'fail' for some was the complete opposite for others........south of the M4, with nearly 30cm of snow in one sitting....no fail there!

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
4 minutes ago, beerandkebab said:

need to qualify this.....what has been a 'fail' for some was the complete opposite for others........south of the M4, with nearly 30cm of snow in one sitting....no fail there!

So because  we had 1 decent snowfall in a smallish location that adds up to a decent winter! 3 months of winter and that's all it could come up with! Compared to winters gone by this really was an epic fail. When you look at 2009 and 2010....you have to say even 1 decent snowfall couldnt save this winter from being nothing short of shambolic! 

Edited by Mattwolves
  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
16 minutes ago, beerandkebab said:

need to qualify this.....what has been a 'fail' for some was the complete opposite for others........south of the M4, with nearly 30cm of snow in one sitting....no fail there!

It's been utter garbage up here and for most of the uk where it was more like 3 extra months of october but I'm happy with the settled warm anticyclonic models we are seeing now for next week onwards!

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
2 minutes ago, knocker said:

To digress for moment. I would have thought this winter was an unqualified success as it has successfully managed to royally aggravate all the chionophiles  Hallelujah praise the Lord

Chio and catacol, whatever happened to the pair of them, not seen them post for weeks! 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
6 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

So because  we had 1 decent snowfall in a smallish location that adds up to a decent winter! 3 months of winter and that's all it could come up with! Compared to winters gone by this really was an epic fail. When you look at 2009 and 2010....you have to say even 1 decent snowfall couldnt save this winter from being nothing short of shambolic! 

decent?.....a snowfall that would be considered of epic proportions   by the vast majority of people living in this country (if asked the question, 'is 25-30cm decent or epic)!.......and it was not in a 'smallish location'...try most of southern england and a sizeable chunk of the west country....Scotland's had plenty of snow, as have parts of Wales and Ireland...It's generally been an average winter for many, some snow, some rain, some wind, cold days & mild days., pretty much the climatological norm......Outside this forum, people who have not been privvy to the model outputs faux pas this winter would probably deem the winter season thoroughly average, not crap, not good.....winters such as 2009/10 and late 2018 season have been exceptions and not the norm

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It's been utter garbage up here and for most of the uk where it was more like 3 extra months of october but I'm happy with the settled warm anticyclonic models we are seeing now for next week onwards!

I refer the honourable gentleman to answer I gave some moments ago.....shame it's been crap for you Karl (being the snow lover we all know) but crap for you doesn't mean crap for everyone....................that's my opinion, and now I'm off for some gin based cocktails

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Just now, beerandkebab said:

decent?.....a snowfall that would be considered of epic proportions   by the vast majority of people living in this country (if asked the question, 'is 25-30cm decent or epic)!.......and it was not in a 'smallish location'...try most of southern england and a sizeable chunk of the west country....Scotland's had plenty of snow, as have parts of Wales and Ireland...It's generally been an average winter for many, some snow, some rain, some wind, cold days & mild days., pretty much the climatological norm......Outside this forum, people who have not been privvy to the model outputs faux pas this winter would probably deem the winter season thoroughly average, not crap, not good.....winters such as 2009/10 and late 2018 season have been exceptions and not the norm

The point you make is fair, the point you miss is the epic winter that most on here and all the so called best meteorologists predicted for us! The winters you mention, ie 09/10 was 2 a penny back in the 80s! The entire winter was milder than normal and drier than normal! The Scottish ski resorts have had a torrid time till very recently! Nthly winds for instance have become as extinct as dinasaurs! 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

And given the other output from this afternoons runs, this is not at all unexpected from the ECM 12z  ensemble mean

image.thumb.jpg.4ff01ca31d4446596355570a67401348.jpg

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
6 minutes ago, beerandkebab said:

I refer the honourable gentleman to answer I gave some moments ago.....shame it's been crap for you Karl (being the snow lover we all know) but crap for you doesn't mean crap for everyone....................that's my opinion, and now I'm off for some gin based cocktails

Fantastic ending to a post! Love it.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
2 minutes ago, beerandkebab said:

I refer the honourable gentleman to answer I gave some moments ago.....shame it's been crap for you Karl (being the snow lover we all know) but crap for you doesn't mean crap for everyone....................that's my opinion, and now I'm off for some gin based cocktails

Shame I don't have any good memories of the last 3 months but I'm pleased for you, really am...anyway, thankfully this unsettled spell is coming to an end and next week, potentially even the following week(s) could be very pleasant for most.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

The point you make is fair, the point you miss is the epic winter that most on here and all the so called best meteorologists predicted for us! The winters you mention, ie 09/10 was 2 a penny back in the 80s! The entire winter was milder than normal and drier than normal! The Scottish ski resorts have had a torrid time till very recently! Nthly winds for instance have become as extinct as dinasaurs! 

generally agree with your post Matt, the expectations were raised though the roof due to model outputs shown throughout the winter period, they caught most on here out (and that's not a knock on anyone as one can only analyse the model output that is erm, output...lol).......Haven't seen the stats re. this winter....Thought the Scots had done well, happy to be corrected........it was dry and pretty banal during parts of Jan and Feb down here, but in the last few weeks the incessant wind and rain have certainly made up for it!

the 80's certainly down south were not 2 a penny, some were horrifically mild and snowless

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
3 minutes ago, beerandkebab said:

generally agree with your post Matt, the expectations were raised though the roof due to model outputs shown throughout the winter period, they caught most on here out (and that's not a knock on anyone as one can only analyse the model output that is erm, output...lol).......Haven't seen the stats re. this winter....Thought the Scots had done well, happy to be corrected........it was dry and pretty banal during parts of Jan and Feb down here, but in the last few weeks the incessant wind and rain have certainly made up for it!

the 80's certainly down south were not 2 a penny, some were horrifically mild and snowless

Early 80s mainly, I only pointed it out because I can remember periods of snow and cold that would be around for 2 weeks! Rather than 2 days these days. Oh and as you will know 87!! What a spell that was! I was told by somebody who works at the cairngorm range back in mid January that they was having a poor season, so I'm not gonna say 100% sure. Anyway thanks for your input BAK, I don't want to spoil your cocktail hour, you sound like James bond!! Over and out Mrs money penny!!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
31 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

So because  we had 1 decent snowfall in a smallish location that adds up to a decent winter! 3 months of winter and that's all it could come up with! Compared to winters gone by this really was an epic fail. When you look at 2009 and 2010....you have to say even 1 decent snowfall couldnt save this winter from being nothing short of shambolic! 

agree with AJ, for his location, it's been a great winter, possibly even best in the m/e, but for north of M4 worst in history for many

If I lived in AJ's location I'd be amazed with the winter, lucky you still don't live here AJ

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

agree with AJ, for his location, it's been a great winter, possibly even best in the m/e, but for north of M4 worst in history for many

If I lived in AJ's location I'd be amazed with the winter, lucky you still don't live here AJ

I'm never really one for inyabackyardism, so i was just summing the winter as a whole throughout the UK up. But Yeh I can understand those who ended up with a foot of snow can say they had a decent one.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Rarely see a better day 10 Ecm mean than this from the 12z!

EDM1-240.GIF

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
15 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

agree with AJ, for his location, it's been a great winter, possibly even best in the m/e, but for north of M4 worst in history for many

If I lived in AJ's location I'd be amazed with the winter, lucky you still don't live here AJ

Aye Mark, Penkridge was pants from what I've heard.....Still, even 09/10 wasn;t great when I lived there, cold but not especially snowy......I digress, sorry I'm taking this off topic mods, so I must dash, gin cocktails need to be shaken (not stirred) and I need to appropriate some maize based nibbles

Edited by beerandkebab
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Just looking at the extended range GEFS 12z and there really is potential for some long draw very warm southerly winds with temps into the 20's celsius..considering almost 22c 72f was recorded in late Feb..I'm sure there's a chance at the end of March /  start of April!!!!

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Not long now until these strong winds finally clear away and high pressure settles thing down again

gefsensmslpLondon.thumb.png.01d4ec29a5e2bc8599d0182b90825c04.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North Norfolk, Antingham
  • Weather Preferences: Most except high humidity and thawing snow.
  • Location: North Norfolk, Antingham
2 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

Chio and catacol, whatever happened to the pair of them, not seen them post for weeks! 

To be fair Catacol did sign off on this winter with several posts admitting we were in the last chance saloon . We await the post mortem from the strat guys

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs18z is looking good for plenty of very mild / warm and largely settled weather with higher pressure, not only next week but further ahead too..very similar high res to the 12z with most of any atlantic weather brushing around the top of the high and only really affecting the far NW / N later next week when it also becomes rather cooler further north for a time..all in all its looking like pleasant calmer spring weather is set to replace all the wind and rain very soon!

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
26 minutes ago, Weathervane said:

To be fair Catacol did sign off on this winter with several posts admitting we were in the last chance saloon . We await the post mortem from the strat guys

I wasn't aware, I know they are both very astute posters! And tbh I think quicksilver did a brilliant summary on where it wrong a while back, not sure if Mike as done one yet, or he is just concentrating on the forthcoming summer!! I would love to hear Karl's... Aka frosty, summary on it, think he would plain and simply put it like this..... Its been rubbish... Roll on summer!!! Love it

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

what’s going on with the gfs ensembles,over 20 c difference between them and some breach the minus 10 line! ecm had a big difference as well,maybe it’s about to begin ,finally 

Edited by Paul
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...