Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins

[MATTWOLVES 3]

On 13/03/2019 at 23:53, Mattwolves said:

You should know cheeky monkey that it's not out the question to get significant snowfall in March, even April, and bare in mind we have just endured one of the worst winters for cold and snow for a long time. Its easy for you to say that when your subject to 6 months of snow per year. 

 

On 13/03/2019 at 23:56, cheeky_monkey said:

sure can but wont hang around too long..dont forget i lived most of my life in the UK ..snow at the back end of March or into April is like slap in the face after a poor winter.

Here was my original thoughts on the matter, basically I'm stating major snowfalls can happen in March, and that's basically the reason why the likes of frosty sleety, Feb and myself still chase it so late.

Edited March 15, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Summer Sun]

Another few days of strong winds then it finally calms down next week

Strong winds in March isn't uncommon but the persistence of them this year does seem unusual

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 6z mean we could be in for a prolonged period of predominantly settled weather beyond this week with either  high pressure or at least decent  ridging covering most of the uk.

Edited March 15, 2019 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

The 00z ECM ens shows another deep low for Sunday but once that clears away it settles down so a return to frosts is possibly next week

 

[knocker]

Frontal surface at 750mb om the camborne midday sounding? And the wave is forming on the front away to the south west and will be over western Ireland 985mb by 0600 tomorrow morning with the returning front straddled across Northern Ireland and central England at same time

Thus the frequent showers currently over the NW/N will become less frequent this evening as a band of rain starts to move north east becoming heavy, particularly over north Wales and turning to snow when it hits the cold air over northern Ireland, the north of England and southern Scotland. Mainly on the higher ground but also down to quite low levels.

And the travels of the wave will also herald increasing winds in the south west/south during the night

Edited March 15, 2019 by knocker

[MATTWOLVES 3]

How bizarre, gfs 12z bringing a cold weekend, then a cold blast next weekend.... Followed by another blast of cold air the following weekend!! 3 on a spin... 3rd time lucky perhaps!! 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

And here is the para take on it at similar time frame. Still a lot of cold air to our N/NE! 

Edited March 15, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z operational looks allwhite to me..

[Mike Poole]

If we keep our eyes on the slightly reliable, T240 looks good for a rise of pressure  and the end to this quite significant windy periods for spring, here GFS and GEM

ICON only runs to T180, but to my eye looks trending the same way

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I think frosty just posted some precipitation charts for end of march, so here is a few for this weekend and next.... All in fi so caution required.... Not worth gerrin overly excited just yet!!! Ohhhh what the hell!!!!!!! 

[Mike Poole]

ECM supporting the transition to more settled conditions, here at T144:

[Frosty.]

Well the GEFS 12z mean soon becomes high pressure dominated across southern uk from early next week onwards and although it looks more changeable further north across scotland, eventually we are looking at nationwide settled weather..  Looking good!

[feb1991blizzard]

There is a few on this suite but number 4 the pick (for cold) and arguably with inland convection and a developing shortwave, would be by far better than anything experienced during winter by most of the UK, (Southern and South Western stonker excepted of course).

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Ecm warming things up nicely at 168hrs with high pressure over us, it starts to retreat west by 216hrs allowing cooler air to filter In. 

 

Edit..  Ecm finishes OK if its largely settled weather your after, certainly not in agreement with gfs 12z!

Edited March 15, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Frosty.]

Great Ecm 12z for most of next week across most of the uk..becoming settled and warmer under the influence of high pressure , especially further south by southeast...beyond that..Mattwolves summed it up well.

[Frosty.]

Wow it's really quiet in here..anyway tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean looks increasingly settled and warmer next week across southern uk whereas central and especially northern uk continues changeable with a cooler atlantic airflow although improving further north too for a time later..for the south though, it's looking like a spell of very pleasant spring weather but with some chilly nights..ps..thanks David Snow for your continued sad smiley contributions..always a welcome addition.

Edited March 15, 2019 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

Looking at the ECM mean the op is a warm outlier at the back end of next week still decent temps just not as warm as the op indicates at this stage

With high pressure looking to be building it will be feeling much more pleasant than recent days

[MATTWOLVES 3]

21 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

.ps..thanks David Snow for your continued sad smiley contributions..always

Lol, I've always wondered about this sad smiley, I wonder if some folk are saying that it's making them feel sad about the change to the weather that they do not want, or they are saying your post is sad.... And so are you!!!

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Lol, I've always wondered about this sad smiley, I wonder if some folk are saying that it's making them feel sad about the change to the weather that they do not want, or they are saying your post is sad.... And so are you!!!

Nope he does it on purpose, he's never liked m e, don't know why, I'm a very decent autistic chap.

Edited March 15, 2019 by Frosty.

[ANYWEATHER]

The Incredible cold across the Artic is very notable, Record lows for this time of year, across Greenland, just watch that Spill out of the Artic during late March /April,,,across the Uk....

[I remember Atlantic 252]

40 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Lol, I've always wondered about this sad smiley, I wonder if some folk are saying that it's making them feel sad about the change to the weather that they do not want, or they are saying your post is sad.... And so are you!!!

I use it normally if I don't like a certain weather, like its turning unsettled so I'd click sad, not sure if it's meant for that

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Pick your poison folks, something for everyone! 

[Derecho]

1 hour ago, ANYWEATHER said:

The Incredible cold across the Artic is very notable, Record lows for this time of year, across Greenland, just watch that Spill out of the Artic during late March /April,,,across the Uk....

Only a small section of southern Greenland could be described as having temperatures notably below normal at that time and global temperatures are still a notable 0.42C above normal. So probably not record breaking and the arctic circle as a whole is still above  normal. Finally the winds are calming down and some pleasant weather next week. Can't come soon enough.

 

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Gfs 18z bringing lots of high pressure, for a good chunk of its run, just a few highlights. 

[Frosty.]

Amazing 18z, now that's high pressure domination from next week, especially low res..great spring weather if that verifies!