Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

I'm autistic and easily offended..mood issues and all that..apologies for my earlier reply.

I understand mate, my friends daughter is, we must make a right pair as I have major anxiety issues! Gorra laugh though ain't ya

[SLEETY]

hmm really looks like the end in regard looking for any decent chances of snow and cold.Lots of bitterly cold Arctiic air stuck up there,and we just can get high pressure to form where we want it so it floods South.

 

The high pressure belts to the South looking  like they are going to be the dominant feature again,like most of the winter,absolute joke of a winter wasn’t it and nothing changing in spring time

[inghams85]

10 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I understand mate, my friends daughter is, we must make a right pair as I have major anxiety issues! Gorra laugh though ain't ya

There's a lot on here with conditions like autism which explains the obsessive nature of a lot of posters 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Pretty similar around day 10. Gfs and ECM! Or am I missing something! 

[Frosty.]

Once we get this very unsettled and at times windy week out of the way, the Ecm 12z shows a marked improvement next week as high pressure builds in with a much more pleasant feel in the sunshine and light winds but nights could be cold where skies clear with slight frosts and some mist / fog patches.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

20 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

hmm really looks like the end in regard looking for any decent chances of snow and cold.Lots of bitterly cold Arctiic air stuck up there,and we just can get high pressure to form where we want it so it floods South.

 

The high pressure belts to the South looking  like they are going to be the dominant feature again,like most of the winter,absolute joke of a winter wasn’t it and nothing changing in spring time

I feel you sleety! Gfsp quickly played down the cold charts I posted last night! It's a shame but things not looking to good now. What a thoroughly disappointing cold chase it's been, obviously there will be some on here who are glad we didn't even manage one potent cold snap! But I always say careful what you wish for, because if summer turns out a damp miserable squib then they ain't gonna be to happy therselves are they! Anyway sleety, we just dust ourselves down and get ready for the next chase around November! Maybe next time favourable background signals will bring us something.

Edited March 13, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Don]

25 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Lots of bitterly cold Arctiic air stuck up there,and we just can get high pressure to form where we want it so it floods South.

Wouldn’t this be good for sea ice retention, though?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Don said:

Wouldn’t this be good for sea ice retention, though?

Ohhh yessss, the re freeze is on! Next year is gonna be a proper winter..... 47/63 re run! Although it may be in a parallel universe Don!!

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Ohhh yessss, the re freeze is on! Next year is gonna be a proper winter..... 47/63 re run! Although it may be in a parallel universe Don!!

More like the GFS(P) in FI low res

[Don]

19 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Ohhh yessss, the re freeze is on! Next year is gonna be a proper winter..... 47/63 re run! Although it may be in a parallel universe Don!!

I suspect it will be another poor year for sea ice retention, despite it being cold up there.  The planet is knackered . In a parallel universe, the planet is fine!  How do we get there?!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

14 minutes ago, Don said:

I suspect it will be another poor year for sea ice retention, despite it being cold up there.  The planet is knackered . In a parallel universe, the planet is fine!  How do we get there?!

The planet was built to withstand a lot more than people realise Don, mother nature as her own ways of correcting things when needed! I still believe the days where we need factor 2000 suncream are some way off. We will have cold phases and we will have warm phases, the warm phases perhaps more noticeable than the cold ones, but sooner or later a very severe winter will come along and it will be remembered! That's just the way things are. Anyway as it stands spring looks like springing soon, lots of cold air bottled up over the arctic but it does not show any signs of migrating south..... But you never know! My only Concern is that warm summery weather will peak to soon and we will end up with a pretty average 2nd half to summer, I know people will say there is know link to what I'm gonna say next.... But from working outdoors over many years I've come across a lot of April and mays of lovely very warm weather, and the summer that followed as been bog standard!!! Bit like the notion of getting severe cold and snow throughout December, the cold tends to Peter out as we approach the new year and rarely comes back..... December 2010 is a classis example of that!! Brace yourselves it's gonna be an interesting year of weather me thinks!!

Edited March 13, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Frosty.]

Well..what a cracking Ecm 12z ens mean tonight (regarding next week)..best in ages for those who like high pressure and spring-like pleasant days..looking great for the upcoming spring equinox..really looking forward to the clocks going forward already!!

Edited March 13, 2019 by Frosty.

[Don]

33 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

My only Concern is that warm summery weather will peak to soon and we will end up with a pretty average 2nd half to summer, I know people will say there is know link to what I'm gonna say next.... But from working outdoors over many years I've come across a lot of April and mays of lovely very warm weather, and the summer that followed as been bog standard

2007, 2011 and 2012 come to mind there, when we had summer in April and March.  After that it went belly up if you’re a hot weather fan!

Edited March 13, 2019 by Don

[Mike Poole]

24 minutes ago, Don said:

2007, 2011 and 2012 come to mind there, when we had summer in April and March.  After that it went belly up if you’re a hot weather fan!

I think a repeat of these years is highly unlikely.  GloSea5 and CFS going for a hot summer, sea surface temperatures almost certainly above average in vicinity of UK.  If last year was a dry hot summer, I think this one may have a more humid thundery component (slightly),  but otherwise a hot summer.

Both GFS and ECM at T192 suggesting a high pressure dominated regime, as ensemble guidance has been for a few days now.

 

[Mapantz]

Model discussion please?! 

There's plenty of other threads for the above types of discussions.

Thank you.

[Methuselah]

14 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I think a repeat of these years is highly unlikely.  GloSea5 and CFS going for a hot summer, sea surface temperatures almost certainly above average in vicinity of UK.  If last year was a dry hot summer, I think this one may have a more humid thundery component (slightly),  but otherwise a hot summer.

Both GFS and ECM at T192 suggesting a high pressure dominated regime, as ensemble guidance has been for a few days now.

 

Aye Mike, the background signals are looking mostly good...?

[Frosty.]

12 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Aye Mike, the background signals are looking mostly good...?

I think poor background signals would be better for the uk

[Mike Poole]

27 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Aye Mike, the background signals are looking mostly good...?

Hmmm, I'm preferring to stick to the long range models and data such as sea surface temperatures over 'background signals' at the moment, fingers burnt in winter forecasts!  

But the models are looking good for a decent summer, I think.

[Frosty.]

A happy ending to the night from the Gfs 18z operational..it's looking increasingly settled and warmer next week for many of us.

[Allseasons-Si]

I think if we do get a bout from the north it would be noticeable looking at the state of the pv and how much it has re-formed,the NH is looking V cold at the moment

here is the latest from the strat 30/10 hpa graph,look how cold it is and i don't recall such a cold pv in my time on here,maybe someone can jog my memory?

poss a slow spring coming i would of thought.

[Allseasons-Si]

The gps/p has a poss easterly if fl

i wouldn't rule it out in subsequent runs,it has been showing it on previus runs.

 

 

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Gfsp trying so desperately hard to bring an easterly, heights building nicely over scandy! The cold looks a bit scarce at present across Central Europe though! But 2 days running at some point this model has tried to develop heights to our NE, is it on to something or does it just wanna spoil the spring  brigade party that is gathering! 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

22 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The gps/p has a poss easterly if fl

i wouldn't rule it out in subsequent runs,it has been showing it on previus runs.

 

 

 

Great minds think alike!! Only just noticed your remarks as I was posting my thoughts!

Edited March 13, 2019 by Mattwolves

[feb1991blizzard]

12 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The gps/p has a poss easterly if fl

i wouldn't rule it out in subsequent runs,it has been showing it on previus runs.

 

 

 

Its a crap Easterly though.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Hmmm, I'm preferring to stick to the long range models and data such as sea surface temperatures over 'background signals' at the moment, fingers burnt in winter forecasts!  

But the models are looking good for a decent summer, I think.

You a brave man Mike, putting your credentials on the line for a seasonal forecast! Fair play to you