Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins

[knocker]

Looking at the EPS this evening, which supports the det run, one can see why the subtropical high is struggling to gain a foothold in the vicinity of the UK. The intense amplification upstream is resulting in too much energy winging across the Atlantic south of the Vortex/trough to allow any sustainable amplification. A relaxation and retrogression of the trough and then we may be in business

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean indicates at least the southern half of the uk becoming more settled next week with increasingly pleasant surface conditions but with a risk of overnight frosts and fog as winds fall light and where skies clear..breezier, cooler and more changeable further n / nw...the models so far today show a BIG improvement compared to this week's turbulent weather, becoming calmer for many next week as things stand.

[Don]

33 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

If all fails Don, wack the ski's on the roof rack and we hit the cairngorms this weekend, picking up frosty along the way! Yeh snow definitely exciting, and even more so when your not getting much. (that sounds well). Perhaps still a wintry surprise or 3 before months out! BOOOOMMMM THERE IT Is!!!!! 

Or next month.  Think April 5th 1989 and 6th April 2008.....

[Frosty.]

For any coldies lurking..P7 is just for you!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

13 minutes ago, Don said:

Or next month.  Think April 5th 1989 and 6th April 2008.....

How about April 81, 23rd to 26th! Southern England, Wales and the midlands, also NW England exceeded 30cm of snow. On the 25th alone 7.9inches fell across southern and western England, also Wales. In total 26inches was reported to have fallen in Gloucestershire, also there was level snow of 60cm in the Peak District, with 20ft drift, also 20ft drifts in Staffordshire. In Birmingham temps did not exceed 3c during this time, with some places permanently below 0c.lowest temp recorded was - 11c in Dalwhinnie. So I reckon Don, never say never, because it's always possible it could happen again.

Edited March 12, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Tim Bland]

9 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

For any coldies lurking..P7 is just for you!

Uppers of -5 and ground temps of 5c doesn’t interest me when it’s nearly April I’m afraid. 

 

 

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

 

Uppers of -5 but look what's heading west, uppers of -10 / -15!!..just for fun of course 

[feb1991blizzard]

21 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

 

Ground temps of 5c don't interest me at any point never mind April, snow won't settle with ground temps of 5c.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Ground temps of 5c don't interest me at any point never mind April, snow won't settle with ground temps of 5c.

Snow can fall though at 5C in April, but not in Dec to Feb

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Snow can fall though at 5C in April, but not in Dec to Feb

Yes, because of lapse rates but its starting to melt as it hits the ground and will melt of contact if the ground is 5c.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended shows it turning more settled in the south as high pressure begins to edge closer pressure stays lower in the north so it remains windier here with the risk of further rain at times

[Frosty.]

I really think confidence has increased that the jet will be nudged further north next week with high pressure building in across the south bringing increasingly settled and milder / warmer conditions to much of england and wales and perhaps further north too but probably n.ireland and most of n / w scotland continuing changeable and cooler with air sourced from the north atlantic...for many, much better than this week's very wild weather.

Edited March 12, 2019 by Frosty.

[Mike Poole]

Momentum continuing for the build of a settled spell on the pub run tonight, here T168:

Most runs now have the jet tracking north, as a more settled spell starts to take hold.  

Edit, and looks even better at T336:

Edited March 12, 2019 by Mike Poole

[feb1991blizzard]

Ridge being thrown up towards Greenland.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Know real agreement between gfs and gfsp, the former has warmer temps with high pressure centred slightly east! The GFSP as pressure building over Greenland bringing us the risk of cold air invading from the NE. This is far from a done deal I feel, those pinning their hopes on much warmer conditions May end up disappointed! 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Gfsp bringing the noise, a mirror opposite of its older brother, get in their my son!!!!! 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

What a beauty from the GFSP!!!! 

[SLEETY]

2 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

Gfsp bringing the noise, a mirror opposite of its older brother, get in their my son!!!!! 

Looking really interesting as we head into spring proper how many times have we seen this over recent years, I really think we are going to get a mega easterly, and the normal  gfs was a warm outlier with huge scatter in the ensembles, something is brewing yet all the winter posters have gone  weeks ago only a few of us still here, keep going guys and gals

[knocker]

The 500mb and surface analysis for midnight and the 0500 surface chart

As can be seen storm Gareth is now in the North Sea and the UK is in a very strong, unstable, north westerly on the western flank. which means frequent squally showers but these will start to die out later this morning whilst at the same the wind will start to abate at last, But by 1700 cloud and rain associated with the next frontal system approaching from the west will be effecting N. Ireland and western Scotland

Through this evening and overnight the rain will spread to all areas, heavy at times, particularly again in the north west, and by morning the wind will picking up again in the south west as systems quickly track across the UK along the conduit to the west

The rain will generally clear quite quickly Thursday Morning leaving frequent showers in the brisk north westerly but the trailing front, which is the agent for the conveyor belt of the rapidly tracking systems, is not far away from the south coast so rain will persist in this area, Temps a shade above average

Over Thursday night and through Friday the next wave forms to the west and tracks north east and deepens rapidly to be 966mb north west of Scotland by midday. The associated warm front will bring more rain across the country during the morning leaving much of the country in the warm sector although the cold front does bring some colder air down in the far north

And as can be seen yet another wave is already poised to the south west and by midday Saturday it is 989mb over northern England bringing yet more rain and strong winds but also possible snow in the north down to quite low levels,

By Sunday the low is over Scandinavia leaving the UK with a much cooler day with a mixture of sunny intervals and wintry showers which could be a mix of hail and thunder and snow on the higher ground.

Edited March 13, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

The story through T144 > 192 with the gfs is essentially that of the subtropical high ridging north east battling against the emery from the west and being partly successful with odd system effecting northern regions

[knocker]

The ecm is not dissimilar to the gfs T144 > 192 with temps varying around the average tending a tad above.

Edited March 13, 2019 by knocker

[Frosty.]

According to the Gfs 00z operational, winter returns later next week..there's even some snow in the north this weekend!! 

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

The ecm is not dissimilar to the gfs T144 > 192 with temps varying around the average tending a tad above.

The developing form horse does seem to be trending towards a more ridgy type of westerly flow, even NOAA 6-10 is showing a developing ridge idea from the SW.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z looks great for southern uk next week with high pressure building in strongly (1030 / 1035) and daytime temps on the rise..post day 10 it would be anticyclonic nationwide..much calmer next week for the majority with light winds and plenty of dry and sunny weather away from the far n / nw.

Edited March 13, 2019 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

According to the Gfs 00z operational, winter returns later next week..there's even some snow in the north this weekend!! 

 

Thankfully it looks like an outlier on the ens.

The mean stays consistent with previous runs so some milder temps look likely next week