Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins

[feb1991blizzard]

Cold overnight for the S & E, potential for something decent down the line.

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Aye, another good GFS from the 18th all the way to 384, don't care about temps for now, just like it settled

Edited March 12, 2019 by I remember Atlantic 252

[MATTWOLVES 3]

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Cold overnight for the S & E, potential for something decent down the line.

 

Yes Feb, its difficult to get to excited about major warming currently, especially with so much cold air to our east and NW, this is still a finally poised situation, and personally I still couldn't rule out more cold weather before spring starts properly! 

[Frosty.]

Something that has struck me again today is that for the most part, the models today are looking a lot more settled next week than exeter are indicating..as was also the case yesterday. I hope the operational output is correct and we won't have to endure further very unsettled weather next week..hoping for better updates in the 6-15 days range soon!!

Edited March 12, 2019 by Frosty.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Something that has struck me again today is that for the most part, the models today are looking a lot more settled next week than exeter are indicating..as was also the case yesterday. I hope the operational output is correct and we won't have to endure further very unsettled weather next week..hoping for better updates in the 6-15 days range soon!!

mmm, dread the EC downgrading, and tomorrows GFS

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

mmm, dread the EC downgrading, and tomorrows GFS

Well, I'm only going on the current output, can't second guess what the models will show in an hour or tomorrow etc...

[MATTWOLVES 3]

4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Something that has struck me again today is that for the most part, the models today are looking a lot more settled next week than exeter are indicating..as was also the case yesterday. I hope the operational output is correct and we won't have to endure further very unsettled weather next week..hoping for better updates in the 6-15 days range soon!!

Agreed frosty, looking deep into FI with gfs just shows how much a finally balanced month march can be, just look how close the cold uppers are out EAST!! It looks like there could be yet a few more twists before much warmer weather, I know exeter are harping on about warmth but tbh there predictions don't fill me with to much confidence these days! 

[feb1991blizzard]

GFS(p) 12z is a stonker.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Wow, don't tell me I'm gonna be jumping back on to a cold hunt again! Bloody typical after searching for it for months, it now starts to churn it out! 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

UKMO not bad, not that warm but at least getting better, and dry

[Frosty.]

14 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Wow, don't tell me I'm gonna be jumping back on to a cold hunt again! Bloody typical after searching for it for months, it now starts to churn it out! 

Doesn't Gfs(P) have a cold bias though?..it's been predicting freezing cold weather in a parallel universe for the last 4 months..never verified on this side of the atlantic although I understand it's been accurate for canada which is as much use to the uk as a chocolate teapot.

  

Edited March 12, 2019 by Frosty.

[cheeky_monkey]

3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Doesn't Gfs(P) have a cold bias though?..it's been predicting freezing cold weather in a parallel universe for the last 4 months..never verified, on this side of the atlantic although I understand it's been accurate for canada which is as much use to the uk as a chocolate teapot.

  

would it be that cold though? ..last week of March what are we talking here from those charts 5-7c maximums?

[SLEETY]

Let's hope the ECM is interested in an easterly  shortly. Its certainly keen in the weather settling down  its where the High pressure is oriented that depends whether we get very cold weather or perhaps another very warm spell like we had inFebruary again. 

Personally speaking I think I would prefer another warm sunny spell, as to get snow from an easterly you need exceptionally cold upper temperatures  at this time of year  although  saying that, we have had two severe Marches in the past 5 years with lying snow so perhaps their is still a chance of one decent snowfall to come

[MATTWOLVES 3]

9 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

would it be that cold though? ..last week of March what are we talking here from those charts 5-7c maximums?

Who knows! In February we had 20c, that was like 13c above average! I can see heights building over scandy, hence an easterly risk, would it be cold enough across the continent!? Anything is possible, what I would say is a potent cold snap is just as likely as an heatwave! 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

18 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Doesn't Gfs(P) have a cold bias though?..it's been predicting freezing cold weather in a parallel universe for the last 4 months..never verified on this side of the atlantic although I understand it's been accurate for canada which is as much use to the uk as a chocolate teapot.

  

You've got a point frosty... A good one, but sooner or later its gonna nail it! We still have to take in to consideration that snow at this time of the year is more likely than in December! And with some surreal cold uppers bottled up over the arctic.... Who knows! Let's see where the later runs go with this! But tbh as soon as I said I was jumping aboard the spring hunt... I became worried... If you know what I mean

[SLEETY]

It wouldn't surprise me if we get an mega easterly, it seems much more common in any other season bar the season we all want it In. Lol

End of March 1952 is an example of how extreme easterlies can still be so late in season

 

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 12z mean next week onwards brings an increasingly settled pattern with pleasant surface conditions although still with a risk of overnight frosts and fog patches.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Looking at the GEFS 12z mean next week onwards brings an increasingly settled pattern with pleasant surface conditions although still with a risk of overnight frosts and fog patches.

Frost and fog!!!there is still a coldie inside you yearning to escape frosty.

Sorry for posting all the charts again.

Edited March 12, 2019 by Mattwolves

[knocker]

The frontal wave forming at 30W at 1200 Friday deepens quite rapidly over the next 24 hours to bring more wet and windy weather on Saturday. Could be snow down to quite low levels in Scotland

Edited March 12, 2019 by knocker

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z is going for high pressure gradually building in next week..as the 00z and much of the other output again today..warming up too, a bit of a wobble later but looking at the day 10 chart high pressure would soon dominate again..next week doesn't look unsettled at all for the majority.!!.

Edited March 12, 2019 by Frosty.

[Don]

1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

Wow, don't tell me I'm gonna be jumping back on to a cold hunt again! Bloody typical after searching for it for months, it now starts to churn it out! 

I wouldn’t if I were you!  I won’t be getting excited until white stuff starts falling from the sky!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Firstly, potential snow for Scotland on Saturday and perhaps even northern England. Secondly ecm shows some high pressure and warmer temps around 7 days but perhaps cooler less settled Conditions from the west, north west towards the end of the period! 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

17 minutes ago, Don said:

I wouldn’t if I were you!  I won’t be getting excited until white stuff starts falling from the sky!

Snow up north on Saturday to even low levels Don, could get a bit further south as well!! GAME ON!!!!! or is that just me gerrin excited in me middle age!!

[Don]

15 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Snow up north on Saturday to even low levels Don, could get a bit further south as well!! GAME ON!!!!! or is that just me gerrin excited in me middle age!!

I’m getting worse in my middle age with excitement for snow!  Hopefully you will see something wintry at the weekend.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

6 minutes ago, Don said:

I’m getting worse in my middle age with excitement for snow!  Hopefully you will see something wintry at the weekend.

If all fails Don, wack the ski's on the roof rack and we hit the cairngorms this weekend, picking up frosty along the way! Yeh snow definitely exciting, and even more so when your not getting much. (that sounds well). Perhaps still a wintry surprise or 3 before months out! BOOOOMMMM THERE IT Is!!!!!