Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins

[knocker]

The is very marked differences between the gfs and ecm towards day ten and this why

A quick check on precipitation this week

Edited March 11, 2019 by knocker

[Frosty.]

Really liking the 6z trend for next week onwards, even more bullish than the 00z in terms of high pressure and warmer temperatures!

Edited March 11, 2019 by Frosty.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Really liking the 6z trend for next week, even more bullish than the 00z in terms of high pressure and warmer temperatures!

Who would have thought it frosty, in the space of 24 hours we have gone from die hard coldies to ultimate heat seekers! But as you know there's is only so much you can take before it's time to give up the chase. Anyway I'm gonna enjoy this spring/summer hunt, what's any nicer than having a barbi and beer on the patio on a lovely warm evening! But I will be back for the cold hunt come November just like yourself frosty, in the meantime let's enjoy the new hunt! And just to get started a nice little shot of the 6z further down the line!! Not bad at all. 

[Methuselah]

Aye peeps...it looks like we're about to see some Spring warmth. Only, this time, it'll be actually in Spring!

[knocker]

Eumet - Airmass 1145

The Airmass product is an RGB (Red, Green, Blue) composite based upon data from infrared and water vapour channels from the SEVIRI instrument. It is designed and tuned to monitor the distribution of different air masses and evolution of cyclones, in particular rapid cyclogenesis, jet streaks and PV (potential vorticity) anomalies. Due to the incorporation of the water vapour and ozone channels, its usage at highest satellite viewing angles is limited. The Airmass RGB is composed from data from a combination of the SEVIRI WV6.2, WV7.3, IR9.7 and IR10.8 channels.

 

[MP-R]

Certainly some promising signs of spring later on in the month, but I'm not holding my breath just yet. The Para is having none of it, and despite a pressure rise overall mid next week, we're still dealing with strong westerlies, perhaps more so in the north by then, until the final 5 days of the month when a full on northward migration of high pressure is shown.

If we get as far through March as I think in this current pattern, it'll probably be in the top 5 or maybe even 3 months for windiness I've recorded.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Certainly some promising signs of spring later on in the month, but I'm not holding my breath just yet. The Para is having none of it, and despite a pressure rise overall mid next week, we're still dealing with strong westerlies, perhaps more so in the north by then, until the final 5 days of the month when a full on northward migration of high pressure is shown.

If we get as far through March as I think in this current pattern, it'll probably be in the top 5 or maybe even 3 months for windiness I've recorded.

Yes, some good signs MP-R, as regards to the para that doesn't really concern me. The para was blowing up a potent northerly and nearly - 12 uppers just the other day! It actually seems less reliable than its older brother, will be a sad day when the GFSP finally replaces it! 

[MP-R]

3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Yes, some good signs MP-R, as regards to the para that doesn't really concern me. The para was blowing up a potent northerly and nearly - 12 uppers just the other day! It actually seems less reliable than its older brother, will be a sad day when the GFSP finally replaces it! 

Haha true, but there was never cross model agreement for a northerly. In this pattern, I'd pay more attention to zonality than meridionality. Time will tell how it performs compared to the original GFS. This very issue is of course why we consider all of them. In any case, climatology would dictate an overall decrease in westerlies later in the month so fingers crossed it's in a manner that allows for something a bit warmer and more anticyclonic.

[Frosty.]

Whilst this week is vile with bouts of wet and very windy weather the longer term trend is looking encouraging as these GEFS 6z mean charts show with a gradual pressure rise, at least across southern uk bringing more in the way of fine and warmer spring-like weather..the 6z operational was a cracker and really fast tracked the change to high pressure domination..fingers crossed.

[mb018538]

The 6z isn't totally an outlier - it sits above the mean, but there are a few others going with it. The most marked information you can glean is a bring drop in ppn, and no spikes at all for the last 10 days of the run....so we've probably got another 7-10 days of crud to put up with before things start to change once more. 'Winter' looks to be done with for another year, if it even got started at all.

[Methuselah]

17 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

The 6z isn't totally an outlier - it sits above the mean, but there are a few others going with it. The most marked information you can glean is a bring drop in ppn, and no spikes at all for the last 10 days of the run....so we've probably got another 7-10 days of crud to put up with before things start to change once more. 'Winter' looks to be done with for another year, if it even got started at all.

Indeed! My love for cold and snow usually evaporates (or should that be 'sublimes'?) around this time of year...

[Frosty.]

10 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Indeed! My love for cold and snow usually evaporates (or should that be 'sublimes'?) around this time of year...

Never really had any snow to love in the last 4 months but I'm really hoping the 6z operational is on to something and herald the start of a better spring and a great summer.

[knocker]

The1500 geostationary

[Man With Beard]

4 hours ago, knocker said:

The is very marked differences between the gfs and ecm towards day ten and this why

 

The only trends there are good heights southern Atlantic, lower heights north Atlantic. Not really a recipe for cold at this timeframe. Indeed, a chance of heights nudging into Europe. Temperatures could sneak above average again.

[cheeky_monkey]

3 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

Yes, some good signs MP-R, as regards to the para that doesn't really concern me. The para was blowing up a potent northerly and nearly - 12 uppers just the other day! It actually seems less reliable than its older brother, will be a sad day when the GFSP finally replaces it! 

why??.. the Para has been bang on the money on this side of the Atlantic pretty much all winter.

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

why??.. the Para has been bang on the money on this side of the Atlantic pretty much all winter.

It's been rubbish on this side of the atlantic, mind you, winter was rubbish too, on this side of the atlantic!!

Edited March 11, 2019 by Frosty.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Personally  I think it tends to over blow the uppers a tad! That's my biggest discrepancies with it. I think perhaps it's probably overplayed snow amounts in the USA as well. 

[Polar Maritime]

From what I have seen & read the GFSP does have a cold bias, So until this issue is resolved it has been delayed.

[cheeky_monkey]

4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It's been rubbish on this side of the atlantic, mind you, winter was rubbish too, on this side of the atlantic!!

winter was rubbish here also...too cold for far too long..roll on spring

[SLEETY]

Gfs has been useless after 6 or 7 days all winter and it's brother too. the Northerly it has been showing has disappeared completely, that actually encourages me that we might actually see a decent Arctic Northerly, certainly don't write it off on the bases of what gfs shows, it's verification stats after about a week, must be about zero! 

[SLEETY]

1 minute ago, cheeky_monkey said:

winter was rubbish here also...too cold for far too long..roll on spring

Why live here their if you hate cold so much I'm sure members here would swap  location

[MATTWOLVES 3]

7 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

winter was rubbish here also...too cold for far too long..roll on spring

Ohh if only us die hard coldies could have echoed those words this winter!! Yep In deed roll on spring 

Edited March 11, 2019 by Mattwolves

[cheeky_monkey]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

Why live here their if you hate cold so much I'm sure members here would swap  location

i don't hate cold..but 7 months of the year gets tiresome after a while

[Polar Maritime]

Just Model Discussion please.

[knocker]

Storm Gareth will continue to deepen overnight and by 0600 is forecast to be 952mb just south of the east coast of Iceland.

So after a fine day in many areas with cloud and sunny intervals and the wind abating, cloud has already encroached the north west and rain will follow in N. Ireland and western Scotland. This is associated with the warm front/occlusion of Gareth and will track east through this evening effecting most of England and Wales but the heavier rain will be north of the Midlands, particularly around Cumbria.

The region around Cumbria continues to be the hot spot vis rain intensity through the rest of the night as the triple point moves away to the east and the cold front starts to track south east and by 0600is aligned across Wales to the north east of England

The front still will not have cleared the south east by 1200 tomorrow.

And whilst all this is going the wind will start picking up along western coasts by 2000  and will like reach severe gale in exposed areas before the stronger winds precede the cold front as it tracks south east during the night and tomorrow morning.

Edited March 11, 2019 by knocker