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Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins

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To continue briefly with the ecm. The fronts on Thursday quickly clear but the next is quickly on the scene bringing more heavy rain and possibly gales Friday morning as the low tracks east between Iceland and Scotland And in fact the passes quite close to northern Scotland on it's journey through Friday which could result in severe gales there with some snow on the mountains. The low does quickly move away east but further lows have phased with the trough so sunny intervals and showers on Saturday and Sunday with temps a tad below average  After a brief ridge more heavy rain and strong winds arrive on the scene late Monday as fronts associated with a new low in the Iceland area cross the country. As ever the output in the latter stages of the run to be treated with caution in this very fluid pattern

t126.thumb.png.d1d3d225b85bdcba3f6d452941cc69e0.pngt174.thumb.png.41e018869cbd36b267179c09196eb135.pngt216.thumb.png.cf7ba6223bcaf6bf55845427f4bee20a.png

Edited by knocker
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47 minutes ago, landslave said:

Your above  chart  for Sunday  ...... well SNOWING  NOW in Ashbourne   Derbyshire 

OT I know but usually does around or just after a March Shrovetide.  Snow dusting here in Glyn on hills.

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Any sign of spring on the horizon or are we still just cherry picking cold charts from 400 hours away?

also, this incessant wind and rain is doing my head in now. March used to be a quiet benign month but now i would genuinely class it as a winter month.

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16 minutes ago, Azazel said:

are we still just cherry picking cold charts from 400 hours away?

Yep I'm still doing that, well not 400 hours but at least T+384👍😉

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Hopefully the ext EPS is along the right lines. Nothing drastic with still a strong upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard, but with the upper trough relaxing somewhat and the subtropical high gaming some traction  less unsettled, and with the source of the air much further south, temps trending above average

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Edited by knocker
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The shallow wave just exiting East Anglia a 0900. Note much warmer in the south, albeit windy

09.thumb.gif.6b8a099338c3569872e70c9c8fb4586c.gif

Edited by knocker
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1 hour ago, Azazel said:

Any sign of spring on the horizon or are we still just cherry picking cold charts from 400 hours away?

also, this incessant wind and rain is doing my head in now. March used to be a quiet benign month but now i would genuinely class it as a winter month.

Quiet, benign March months have always been in the minority. One of the most variable months of the whole year.

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10 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Quiet, benign March months have always been in the minority. One of the most variable months of the whole year.

March is often a very volatile month, can switch from winter to spring at a flick. The atlantic and arctic are at there coldest now, and an airstream from between NW and SE can pack a cold punch still.

I always wait until the end of March before I feel the balance shifts to spring proper. March is like September - a transitional month, but often a hangover of the season just gone.

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8 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

March is often a very volatile month, can switch from winter to spring at a flick. The atlantic and arctic are at there coldest now, and an airstream from between NW and SE can pack a cold punch still.

I always wait until the end of March before I feel the balance shifts to spring proper. March is like September - a transitional month, but often a hangover of the season just gone.

As for the storms this season, beware of the march winds, comes to mind. Perfectly normal for this month.

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11 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

Hey E17 boy I think you deserve your own column on netweather, I'm gonna ask em to give you a job cause your such a polite sincere chap! fingers crossed you get a bit of snow come the end of March. 👍

Morning 😊

Thankyou so much for your kind post Mattwolves I am honoured. It's so nice to see so many good people on here and it's such a pleasure coming on here and sharing because that is what life is about. We may never see the posters on here but just knowing that we can make it like a family environment is so good. There are many good posts on here daily, and some take a great effort in sharing their knowledge and making it easier for the less knowledgable ones to understand and that is such a honour to see, so keep up the great work 👍.

Anyway really stormy start to the day here in Walthamstow. I am sure there are a few twigs lying around. The sun has come out now and the winds should start easing later. See some up north are enjoying winters legacy, hear reports of heavy snow. 

Anyway whether it's the snow or the wind hope you all have a great Sunday.

stay safe as always

apeak soon 

kind regards 😊😊😊😊

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Well hello Mr gfs6z, come to poppa! This one is bringing some nice arctic sourced cold air... And guess what it's well within the 400hr range!! Ohh yessss!!! 

gfs-0-174.png

gfs-1-186.png

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Could be some interest again next weekend or just after if the 6zs are on the money... Let's just count this down in a nice and organised calm manner! It's bound to come of folk! 👍😉

Cross model agreement... Gfs and gfsp identical at 180! Gfs6z the above post. 😉

 

Edit again... They are both from gfsp... Model fatigue hitting hard now. 

gfs-1-186 (1).png

gfs-0-186.png

Edited by Mattwolves
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17 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

Hey sleety tbf you have put a decent shift in during this winter, and you are correct in saying time is running out, we have all but a couple of weeks to get some snow and cold shots, the chances of significant cold and penetrating frosts as all but gone. Even the severe cold in Canada and the Midwest is now lifting... Personally I see that as a sign that winter is on its last breath, but hopefully we will get another cracking summer to compensate, and come the end of the year we will be all fresh and ready for a new hunt..... Winter 2019/20, like the sound of that, 2020 sounds like a disaster movie! In the mean time sleety I will fully inderstand if you.......... 

tenor.gif

🤣I’m staying cuz the chance of a proper potent Arctic  Northerly seems to be increasing  in a weeks time,hopefully it will become more severe as it hits  the reliable timeframe and not the other way round,for a change🤞🤞❄️❄️

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2 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

Could be some interest again next weekend or just after if the 6zs are on the money... Let's just count this down in a nice and organised calm manner! It's bound to come of folk! 👍😉

Cross model agreement... Gfs and gfsp identical at 180! Gfs6z the above post. 😉

 

Edit again... They are both from gfsp... Model fatigue hitting hard now. 

gfs-1-186 (1).png

gfs-0-186.png

You are the Rocky Balboa of cold weather searching model watching and I claim my £5. 

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Great MODIS image at midday showing the low and associated front

modis.thumb.JPG.c3f98f3aa6a4b9df43f40ec400be8083.JPG

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23 minutes ago, Jason74 said:

You are the Rocky Balboa of cold weather searching model watching and I claim my £5. 

I keep on searching but it's getting tiring! Don't know how frosty does it year after year, fair play to him though! 

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Lovely stuff from the Gfs 6z operational and it's only 1 week away!!..what could possibly go wrong??..don't answer that!!😉❄️👍

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1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

🤣I’m staying cuz the chance of a proper potent Arctic  Northerly seems to be increasing  in a weeks time,hopefully it will become more severe as it hits  the reliable timeframe and not the other way round,for a change🤞🤞❄️❄️

Yes gfsp is definitely showing it sleety, thing is we can't seem to get ecm or Exeter on board this time, which is a worry! 

Edited by Mattwolves
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think we will be rewarded in a weeks time for those of us still here searching for the snow and cold,remember even late march can deliver anywhere big time,keep the faith the last few of us still here 🤣👌❄️

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49 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Yes gfsp is definitely showing it sleety, thing is we can't seem to get ecm or Exeter on board this time, which is a worry! 

Well, I'm not being funny like but the MO had been suggesting much colder weather for all with snow in their outlooks since December which never really happened, so it's not really a worry IMO 

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2 minutes ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

Well, I'm not being funny like but the MO had been suggesting much colder weather for all with snow in their outlooks since December which never really happened, so it's not really a worry IMO 

I thought that when I wrote the post!! But also concerning UKMO and ECM not on not on board with any major Nthly! 

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Just to take a little look as to where some of the models stand with a possible Ntly! 

Jma 1st

Ecm 2nd

Gem 3rd

Icon 4th

Gfsp 5th

Gfs 6th

J192-21.gif

ECM1-192.gif

gem-0-192.png

icon-0-180.png

gfs-0-192 (1).png

gfs-0-192.png

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Today's squally wintry showers will continue through this evening and overnight in the strong north westerly wind. Especially frequent over Scotland and n. England where there will be a fair amount of snow in the mix.They will tend to dissipate through the early hours but do get a bit of a boost from another occlusion as it crosses the north associated with wee low that has drifted south east from the Iceland area. This front and low can be seen on the interesting geostationary. at 1500

As the winds drop, and with clear skies, quite a widespread frost by morning so ice could be a problem, particularly in the north

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Just look at some of those uppers over Greenland, been a while since I've seen that kind of depth. - 40c

gfs-1-228.png

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Definite signs of heights building the final 3rd of the month, perhaps building north as well! 

gfs-0-348.png

gfs-0-372.png

gfs-0-384.png

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