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Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins

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9 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Yes indeed, there was some very cold weather during the 14th century, we had just gone past the medieval warm spell! I would imagine as it stands we would require one hell of an effort to have a repeat of those circumstances. 

Fast forward nearly five hundred years and my (now late) parents had around 4 inches of snow on the morning of their wedding day. 5th April 1958. London. 

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Maybe it's time to throw the towel in soon,just can't get a decent Northerly as the pattern just want to flatten out as it starts to get interesting, been doing that all winter. 

🤬

Frustrating because it would be interesting to see how cold it could get if we could get a proper Arctic airstream, as their is some extremely cold air  bottling up in the Arctic. Watch it flood South when it's too late to effect the UK🙄

Edited by SLEETY
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Looking at the GEFS 12z there is certainly a chance of arctic air later next weekend into the start of the following week rather than a watered down wnw'ly..I will keep flying the coldie flag when there is any potential for cold / snow!!👍❄️

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Even though the mett is keen on saying since records began in 1914 to describe any kind of severe weather event, records do go back further. The England and Wales precipitation series, which measures rainfall and snow goes back to 1776 and the central England temperature series which covers temps from the south midlands to Lancashire, is the longest running record in the world. Dating from 1659,they were kept on a personal basis by amateur meteorologists. The met has an archive of 1000s of peoples weather diaries..... Wouldnt it be great to get to view them, must be some surreal observations. 

Edited by Mattwolves
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Ecm tends to keep us in cold zonal conditions, just look at some of the temp variations! As regards to the Nthly.... The Ecm says...... 

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Yes indeed, plenty of below average temps on the Ecm 12z with very little mild!..I still think the end of next week could draw arctic air south with a chance of snow showers and with increasing convection, inland showers rather than the wishbone effect we have in winter when showers are draped around the w / n / e coasts with clear sunny weather inland.

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3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Yes indeed, plenty of below average temps on the Ecm 12z with very little mild!..I still think the end of next week could draw arctic air south with a chance of snow showers and with increasing convection, inland showers rather than the wishbone effect we have in winter when showers are draped around the w / n / e coasts with clear sunny weather inland.

Yes indeed frosty, plenty of colder days throughout the 10 day period, bound to be snow,and it's also likely to crop up at short notice and in the places it was least expected, if your travelling folks.... Beware, it doesn't take much of the white stuff to bugger things up!!! 

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36 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Maybe it's time to throw the towel in soon,just can't get a decent Northerly as the pattern just want to flatten out as it starts to get interesting, been doing that all winter. 

🤬

Frustrating because it would be interesting to see how cold it could get if we could get a proper Arctic airstream, as their is some extremely cold air  bottling up in the Arctic. Watch it flood South when it's too late to effect the UK🙄

Hey sleety tbf you have put a decent shift in during this winter, and you are correct in saying time is running out, we have all but a couple of weeks to get some snow and cold shots, the chances of significant cold and penetrating frosts as all but gone. Even the severe cold in Canada and the Midwest is now lifting... Personally I see that as a sign that winter is on its last breath, but hopefully we will get another cracking summer to compensate, and come the end of the year we will be all fresh and ready for a new hunt..... Winter 2019/20, like the sound of that, 2020 sounds like a disaster movie! In the mean time sleety I will fully inderstand if you.......... 

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42 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Yes indeed, plenty of below average temps on the Ecm 12z with very little mild!..I still think the end of next week could draw arctic air south with a chance of snow showers and with increasing convection, inland showers rather than the wishbone effect we have in winter when showers are draped around the w / n / e coasts with clear sunny weather inland.

I always love your posts but by now , second week of March, saying snow is a possibility at the end of next week doesn’t really do much. It’s been 10 days away since November. This isn’t a dig keep up the good work 

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Back to model discussion, please.

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53 minutes ago, mbrothers said:

I always love your posts but by now , second week of March, saying snow is a possibility at the end of next week doesn’t really do much. It’s been 10 days away since November. This isn’t a dig keep up the good work 

Thank you..maybe I'm grasping at straws with the Arctic flow and probably the reality will be something similar to this weekend with more of a polar maritime influence but there is some support from the GEFS 12z..wonder if it will continue or just fade away as usual but time will reveal all.👍😃

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In the middle of a very disturbed pattern of weather - indeed more so than at any stage in the winter.. all thanks to a powerful jet, and significant cold air spilling out of the Canadian arctic regions.

Reading the posts above, you would think many people are not seeing what is about to happen before our eyes - significant snow chances for many northern and central parts, alas the south will see rain - but yes I think some places could see some appreciable amounts come this time tomorrow, nothing marginal about it.. expecting the regionals to be very busy tomorrow!

Next week will stay very unsettled throughout, gales Tuesday and Wednesday for many, heavy rain, and further snow on high ground in the north. Towards end of the week, we might see a more potent northerly shot or end up with another westerly/NW blast - all depends on the strength and positioning of ridging between the low pressure systems. Sudden trough features and small low pressure systems as we have coming tonight and into tomorrow, will be hard to forecast until very short range, so expect lots of sudden developments.

A cold week ahead as well. Spring temporarily on hold..

Edited by damianslaw
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Hi peeps 😊

Hey how is everyone? Hope you all are well and enjoying the weekend. I have not posted for a few days, but here I am 😊.

well it's been a blustery day here in N/E London today. The day started grey and rainy too but we managed to squeeze some sunshine in the early afternoon before cloud arrived heralding the next batch of wet weather tonight.

Looks like a turbulent few days coming up with lots of rain and wind. Not expecting any wintriness here in London but looks as if places further north will be seeing some surprise snow more especially tomorrow.  As some others have said this is probably winters last showdown, I think it will be probably safe to say that widespread freezing cold temperatures and snow have a slim chance now, but that does not discount snow still to fall especially in the north and higher ground in the coming week. 

My focus now will start to turn on humid and thundery weather. I know last summer we were lucky to get some night time storms pushing up from the continent, and I hope we have more luck with this weather than what we have had with snow. 

Anyway peeps enjoy the rest of the weekend, and for those further North enjoy the snow ❄️.

stay safe all speak soon 

regards 😊😊😊😊

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Looks normal March to me , ,last March was not normal , the summer was not normal , February,  this year was not normal..,, The great British weather , Enjoy the ride, 

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When the north wind blow, there shall be snow.. Well according to gfsp anyway! 

 

It packs a punch as well bringing the - 8c uppers all the way south. 

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Edited by Mattwolves
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2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

When the north wind blow, there shall be snow.. Well according to gfsp anyway! 

Indeed, much better than the operational..still plenty of opportunity for that to improve as the models fine tune nearer the time.👍

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Even deep in to fi, and the original 18z still as us under cold artic sourced air! 

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8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Indeed, much better than the operational..still plenty of opportunity for that to improve as the models fine tune nearer the time.👍

Tbh bar the odd mild blip there is a fair amount of cold sourced air straddling the uk. It doesn't seem to be in a hurry to leave the scene, being as there is a hell of a lot of cold air bottled up over the arctic, this could be troubling us at various stages in to April. 

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3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Tbh bar the odd mild blip there is a fair amount of cold sourced air straddling the uk. It doesn't seem to be in a hurry to leave the scene, being as there is a hell of a lot of cold air bottled up over the arctic, this could be troubling us at various stages in to April. 

Hope it troubles us to the extent that it did in April 81, in other words troubling us with a 8 inches - a foot of snow in late April as far South as central Southern England.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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6 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Even deep in to fi, and the original 18z still as us under cold artic sourced air! 

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Yes a sting in the tail of late march..:cold-emoji:❄️

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5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Hope it troubles us to the extent that it did in April 81, in other words troubling us with a 8 inches - a foot of snow in late April as far South as central Southern England.

Just for you Feb, and just for fun! 

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Edit.... Frosty beat me to it! 😜

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Edited by Mattwolves
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41 minutes ago, E17boy said:

Hi peeps 😊

Hey how is everyone? Hope you all are well and enjoying the weekend. I have not posted for a few days, but here I am 😊.

well it's been a blustery day here in N/E London today. The day started grey and rainy too but we managed to squeeze some sunshine in the early afternoon before cloud arrived heralding the next batch of wet weather tonight.

Looks like a turbulent few days coming up with lots of rain and wind. Not expecting any wintriness here in London but looks as if places further north will be seeing some surprise snow more especially tomorrow.  As some others have said this is probably winters last showdown, I think it will be probably safe to say that widespread freezing cold temperatures and snow have a slim chance now, but that does not discount snow still to fall especially in the north and higher ground in the coming week. 

My focus now will start to turn on humid and thundery weather. I know last summer we were lucky to get some night time storms pushing up from the continent, and I hope we have more luck with this weather than what we have had with snow. 

Anyway peeps enjoy the rest of the weekend, and for those further North enjoy the snow ❄️.

stay safe all speak soon 

regards 😊😊😊😊

Hey E17 boy I think you deserve your own column on netweather, I'm gonna ask em to give you a job cause your such a polite sincere chap! fingers crossed you get a bit of snow come the end of March. 👍

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The NH 500mb profile and surface analysis for midnight and the 0500 UK surface chart

gfs_z500a_nh_1.thumb.png.7a3153b4e3139c562f956b948dd7c876.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.3d7b30a217c02d009ab6a66f96fb6bd3.gif05.thumb.gif.d646a9c6cde806c8e455f218e2210f5b.gif

As can be seen there is a fair amount of moderate rain over Wales, the Midlands and a tad further north at the moment from the wave that is tracking across the country. This should have moved into the North Sea by 1200 whilst at the same time rain. sleet and snow from the other wave/occlusion feature will track east from Ireland. The snow will mainly be over the higher ground but may get to lower levels over Scotland and the north of England.

Thew other main feature is the wind, it's been gusting 60mph in these parts, and this will continue to be very strong in the south for a while and generally it will be a gusty day over England and Wales

it will continue to be quite windy through this evening and overnight and there will a lot of squally wintry showers in this north westerly, particularly over N. Ireland and Scotland, and there could well be hail and snow in the mix.

PPVE89.thumb.gif.4a6fbfc240c2b89fdbbfcaa9714cff6f.gif1389352109_minm.thumb.png.36275b468c66bafa0b9f21e9b08f7df4.pngg09.thumb.png.6150003997006f60c29cd01883b6ed73.pngg12.thumb.png.2d0bf96f9470551df128ffe0b9ef4fdf.pngg15.thumb.png.5e02a00ec4d5c025bf10e96c5f542d80.pngg18.thumb.png.9c74e7999c272835162ff768109fea05.png

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Whilst this has been going on, and as a transient ridge slides across the country giving a quieter day on Monday, the low in the Atlantic has undergone rapid cyclogenesis near the left exit of the jet streak.

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Overnight Monday and through Tuesday the low deepens further before starting to drift south east NW of Scotland.whilst the associated frontal systems and heavy rain sweep across the country accompanied by very strong winds, particularly in Scotland on Tuesday with snow on the higher ground. Elsewhere once the frontal rain is through, squally showers

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By Wednesday the low is filling in the North Sea with a wrap around occlusion running down the east of the country which is in a very brisk north westerly with thus sunny interval and frequent showers.

gfs_z500_vort_natl_15.thumb.png.cb1757ab411385f75251ee99f4d0a929.pngPPVM89.thumb.gif.fc74c9684a5539f3a26c88febb78d7af.gifgfs_t2m_a_f_uk2_16.thumb.png.416a3f7d06000d936a6885712bcaafe9.png

But as can be seen the atlantic is still active west of the ridge and by Thursday another frontal system is crossing the country, associated with a new low in the Denmark Straits, bringing more rain and strong winds. Temps are a tad above average.

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Edited by knocker
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Your above  chart  for Sunday  ...... well SNOWING  NOW in Ashbourne   Derbyshire 

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