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Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

It's looking good for some wintry weather this weekend and then again the following weekend..didn't think I would be saying that following the late feb heatwave!!❄️

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Brace yourselves, the blue blob is approaching! 

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Posted
  • Location: Chesham, Bucks
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Chesham, Bucks

Nothing but seasonal average temperatures and rain on both the Netweather seven and fourteen day forecasts

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
2 minutes ago, Ravendane said:

Nothing but seasonal average temperatures and rain on both the Netweather seven and fourteen day forecasts

Perhaps netweather nailed this, and GFS lost the plot! Could be the other way around also!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Beautiful charts with or without beer goggles..don't get me wrong, I will enjoy spring warmth when it comes along but by the same token i will grab any cold and snow opportunities until spring takes hold fully..in the meantime, I'm looking forward to The Day After Tomorrow!!:cold:❄️:shok:

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Can we have an official snow day on Sunday in to Monday!! Go on please!!! 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Note the lobe of the vortex currently north of the Great Lakes which drops into the north west Atlantic

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As this is the spawning of the intense low that brings us some very unsettled weather with strong winds next Tuesday/Thursday

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

It's looking good for some wintry weather....and then again the following weekend❄️

The Gfs 12z is trying it's best to prove me right!!:gathering:

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

As frosty as just pointed out snow chances a plenty over the next 10 day's! We just need them uppers to play ball and hope they are the right side of marginal! Next weekends predicted Nthly could bring other parts into some of the action, make sure to keep them pets warm folk, mine is already for it.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Worth the wait folk, not a bad set of 12s at all, if anything next weekend looking more promising than this one. The - 10c being close to breached on some runs! 

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

A few of the GFS ensembles members go for a pretty sharp northerly next weekend. The key is the amount of cold air that leaks out to the east of Greenland as that will give a northerly an extra sting.

The GFS parallel says no for now whilst the control is at the colder end of the spectrum.

image.thumb.png.b3d5b688df2aa8b6e3126c9d87702c77.png Parallel

image.thumb.png.5772d4cb696236ddbf154344a7967fd7.png Control

The global temperature anomalies show a colder then average arctic at least so a decent chance we could get one last cold shot. Maybe one last hurrah?

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the GEFS 12z mean we can see more potential cold and snow next weekend and the postage stamps look interesting too..even some cold / snow interest into late March with a few -10 to -12 T850's!!..❄️:cold-emoji::shok:

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

After looking like the Canadian death lobe may start to ease off around mid month a day or two ago, it now sadly appears like it’s not going to disappear. Looks like more wind and rain for the next 10 days, with something a bit colder at times.

I won’t be getting too worked up about Sunday here....it’s forecast to reach 10c, even with 850s around -5.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm can be sunned up simply by 'unsettled, wet and very windy at times with temps varying around the average, but tending below, as the pm and Tm airmasses interact' in the strong westerly flow'

For example (not to be taken as a done deal)

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

There's actually quite a lot of Pm air on the Ecm 12z (predominantly chilly feeling) so there's potential for the precipitation to turn wintry at times, especially on hills and further north.❄️

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Gfs and ECM seem miles apart regarding next weekend, GFS going down the Nthly route, ECM more of W/Nthly, hence why there is a notable difference on the ensembles. Just who do you trust in these scenarios! Tbh neither model has performed that well throughout the winter. Know wonder its quite on here tonight.. Ecm rather disappointing overall! 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
3 minutes ago, Stonethecrows said:

This thread never fails to amuse. Half of you saying it's going to be nothing more than average/cool/rain for the next 10 or so, the other saying multiple snow chances/northerlies etc. And all looking at the same charts. Brilliant.

I'm quite positive about a Northerly at the end of next week.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
13 minutes ago, Stonethecrows said:

This thread never fails to amuse. Half of you saying it's going to be nothing more than average/cool/rain for the next 10 or so, the other saying multiple snow chances/northerlies etc. And all looking at the same charts. Brilliant.

Good point, we are all looking at the same data but coming up with different ideas, some seem to think we need ridiculously low uppers to get snow, when in fact you do not, what also does not help is we rarely get cross model agreement when it comes to a cold snap. For example - 8 uppers from gfs, but only - 5 from ecm, quite a difference, there will also be a little bit of bias as well, some of the mild persuasion will go out of there way to find the mildest or least cold chart to post, where others... Me included will look to find the coldest scenario, so to a newbie looking in for the fist time... Boy it must be confusing..... What did you learn today son!????? Well mom, I think it's gonna be overcast with plenty of sunny spells, it will be freezing cold but with a mild wind, rain may turn to snow or even sleet before turning back to drizzle, winds mainly light, but strong gusts could knock you off ya feet!!! Gorra love it ain't ya

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3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Good point, when you see - 6 to - 8c uppers on say the gfs, you tend to expect a snow risk! But like you say, others state.. Average temps and rain away from mountains! It bemuses me because a lot of these uppers that you see on the charts, you would only expect to be at 2 or 3c above freezing. Also worth pointing out is some take the Ecm as gospel, while others the gfs! I'm confused myself here because you can look at say the latest gfs run and it's showing widespread snow risk and cold uppers, yet another poster will still come on and say... Temps around average with some rain.. Either the models do not have a clue, or we the forecasters do not have a clue. There you go, I've confused myself now.

No, you make perfect sense mate and the difference is that you, Frosty and the like at least posts charts and hypothesis as to why you think it might get snowy and not just blurt out random statements. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Cross model agreement, gfs and gfsp identical at 54hrs! lol, them uppers surely bringing some snow! 

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Edited by Mattwolves
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