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Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins

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What the heck!!! I leave the thread for a few hours and come back to see the cold hunt as derailed!! Anymore towels left guys? 6z painting a wintry set up, I fail to see all the misery!! 

 

Edit... Its all good! 

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The Scottish mountains could get a late season top up over the next 10 day's or so

144-780UK.thumb.GIF.e303e0c4f2a6aebe8167e499da197e70.GIF174-780UK.thumb.GIF.ef0a87c90fcaf2863161cf15a52f3397.GIF

A bit of snow at times to lower levels is possibly but that isn't unusual in March nothing significant away from the mountains is shown

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2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Downgrades don't hurt like they did in winter, next stop..April!

The Gfs 00z operational becomes more spring-like after mid March with high pressure building north.

Keep the faith frosty, the 0z was a blip 🙏👍

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41 minutes ago, karyo said:

The El Nino continues to strengthen so in theory cold episodes this spring should be likely. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

However, what catches my eye, is the CFS, which looks determined to strengthen the el nino even further as we head towards autumn. The last few years have seen world records broken even with a weak enso so i am worried to see a moderate event on the horizon.

Can you elaborate? World records for what? Are you referring to conditions for summer or next winter ? 

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11 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Can you elaborate? World records for what? Are you referring to conditions for summer or next winter ? 

I am referring to warm records like the ones we just broke in this country last week (and at the same time on many European countries). Australia also had record heat in January.

Even more worryingly we could have the warmest year on record globally. The Met Office is expecting this to happen by 2023 but if el nino strengthens more this can already happen this year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2019/forecast-suggests-earths-warmest-period 

 

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Well the GFS  in the short to medium  term does seem very wet  Snow may fall  but i doubt it will settle in many places  of course the further North and with elevation will be more favourable     Around 120mm of the wet stuff in the Northwest over the next 10 days  

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Ensembles not bad, plenty of straddlers approaching - 8 values, and I've seen far worse snow row activity throughout the entire winter! 

gefsens850birmingham0.png

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1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

What the heck!!! I leave the thread for a few hours and come back to see the cold hunt as derailed!! Anymore towels left guys? 6z painting a wintry set up, I fail to see all the misery!! 

 

Edit... Its all good! 

 

It really isn't all good, we've seen charts like this (and better) all Winter with none materialising.

The reality is, the models will pick up disturbances near the Southern tip of Greenland which will moderate the North Westerely flow confining any wintryness to the mountains and high hills.

 

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1 hour ago, karyo said:

The El Nino continues to strengthen so in theory cold episodes this spring should be likely. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

However, what catches my eye, is the CFS, which looks determined to strengthen the el nino even further as we head towards autumn. The last few years have seen world records broken even with a weak enso so i am worried to see a moderate event on the horizon.

Sadly I believe you're probably onto something there on both counts (cold episodes this spring + high temp risks this year).

Focusing on the next half-year, if the El Nino now manages to evolve along typical lines and doesn't reach more than weak-moderate strength before August, then there's a good chance that a lot of anomalous heat builds across regions aside from the UK this Mar-Apr, perhaps paying occasional visits, before we start to tap into it more as we approach and go into the summer. This would likely be a less stable pattern than seen May-Jun last year; more unstable episodes with thunderstorm risks.

Puts both the record day maximums and record night minimums at risk if it transpires - but we should also keep an eye on the N. Atlantic sea surface temps as the 'cold pool' out there, by lowering the maritime air temps off the N. Atlantic which then interacted with the unusually hot air over Europe, fired up the polar jet too much when we last saw such high potential for a hot, thundery type summer back in 2016. The results were tragic; a very westerly summer with only one short hot spell - yet that was enough to break the July record for England, which speaks volumes (even considering the usual arguments regarding the Heathrow weather station).

Possibly, the lower solar activity may help to reduce the westerlies even in this scenario and give us the leeway needed - but the solar-westerlies link is much less clear cut outside of the polar vortex season.

So there you are; the initial guidance for summer 2019: either hot with many thundery episodes, or cool with only 'thundery showers' at best for most. Helpful isn't it 😅.

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32 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

It really isn't all good, we've seen charts like this (and better) all Winter with none materialising.

The reality is, the models will pick up disturbances near the Southern tip of Greenland which will moderate the North Westerely flow confining any wintryness to the mountains and high hills.

 

Which proves a long standing point, just what is the purpose of threads like this when viewing output regarding cold and snow is deemed a waste of time!! We have seen this output before, but it didnt verify!  I understand your point regarding the uppers being overly moderated, it's just the point of.... It never verifys! At times the models point to - 6 to - 8 uppers that's cold enough for snow with a few teeeks! Roll on next winter then!! From the moment any cold charts or snow are showing it will be the same old story... What's the point it never verifys. Personally I thought the 6z was looking rather interesting for a few surprises! I also think the 12s will be showing some excitement! Sunday proved snow can crop up in places you would least expect it, and the uppers were nothing special on that occasion. 

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FWIW, I think that everyone is free to discuss whichever type of charts that take their fancy - after all, who knows what will verify and what won't?

And, on the subject of verification, who'd a thunk it - given last week's inglorious output - that those of us living around here, would still be enjoying t-shirt weather, today?

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20 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

These charts from the Gfs 6z operational grabbed my attention..Indeed I actually started to hyperventilate..just under 2 weeks away!! :help:😍😃:shok::cold-emoji:⛄

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These would be amazing but I need to get to manchester and back on the 16th!!! 😛 

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2 hours ago, karyo said:

I am referring to warm records like the ones we just broke in this country last week (and at the same time on many European countries). Australia also had record heat in January.

Even more worryingly we could have the warmest year on record globally. The Met Office is expecting this to happen by 2023 but if el nino strengthens more this can already happen this year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2019/forecast-suggests-earths-warmest-period 

 

  with all due respect forgive me if I don’t take the Met office seriously after the debuckle of this winter  how could they forecast the next five years when they couldn’t forecast the 30 days accurately this winter.  as for snow chances in the next week to 10 days I think only the high ground will benefit from it for low level settling snow I think this year is a bit too late ☺️

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2 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

  with all due respect forgive me if I don’t take the Met office seriously after the debuckle of this winter  how could they forecast the next five years when they couldn’t forecast the 30 days accurately this winter.  as for snow chances in the next week to 10 days I think only the high ground will benefit from it for low level settling snow I think this year is a bit too late ☺️

It is very different getting the winter forecast wrong for our dot on the global map and predicting global temperature trends.

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20 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

  with all due respect forgive me if I don’t take the Met office seriously after the debuckle of this winter  how could they forecast the next five years when they couldn’t forecast the 30 days accurately this winter.  as for snow chances in the next week to 10 days I think only the high ground will benefit from it for low level settling snow I think this year is a bit too late ☺️

It was to early for a February heatwave, so to late for March snow doesn't add up!! Don't forget it only takes a dusting in the uk for anarchy! 👍

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The model runs downgrade then upgrade etc..etc..but the signal from the pros for temps to slide below average continues and therefore with an unsettled pattern the opportunities for snow increases, especially on higher ground!👍

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Posted (edited)

Looking at the Gfs 12z operational most of next week temps slide below average, indeed it looks rather cold nationwide but especially further north and there clearly is a risk of snow in places..could be classed as a wintry period for the time of year  beyond this weekend before turning milder towards the spring equinox from the south but that's deep FI!👍

Edited by Frosty.
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Just to observe GFS 12Z OP, Parallel and especially Control all putting some form of northern blocking on the table later in the month. See if this is a trend in the days to come.

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Looks like going by the latest ecm and other output....that by day 10 the n hem profile is much better. Lots more ridges and troughs rather than a flat profile, so a bit of potential perhaps for mid to late March.

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Posted (edited)

In the 8-16 day range, we seem to be looking at a good example of how increased poleward ridging, taking shape in response to forcing on the Hadley and Ferrel cells by the heat and moisture flux changes induced by increased Pacific uplift (more thunderstorms) and Indonesian descent (less thunderstorms)*, can give the polar vortex a hard time in the troposphere even while it's well organised in the stratosphere. It ought to be enough to break us out of the current autumn-style pattern and place us under either a much more settled one or a traditional showery one.

Increasing the HLB in this way becomes easier as March progresses and the polar vortex is naturally weakened by increasing solar irradiation. Part of the reason why conditions tend to become more 'blocky' Mar-Apr with the N. Atlantic westerlies weakening, ahead of the more regional temp gradient-driven increase in May or early June that often, but not always, affects the UK (the 'Euro monsoon' period as some call it).

 

* this being the El Nino pattern that's now established itself

Edited by Singularity
Elaboration
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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Singularity said:

In the 8-16 day range, we seem to be looking at a good example of how increased poleward ridging, taking shape in response to forcing on the Hadley and Ferrel cells by the heat and moisture flux changes induced by increased Pacific uplift (more thunderstorms) and Indonesian descent (less thunderstorms)*, can give the polar vortex a hard time in the troposphere even while it's well organised in the stratosphere. It ought to be enough to break us out of the current autumn-style pattern and place us under either a much more settled one or a traditional showery one.

Increasing the HLB in this way becomes easier as March progresses and the polar vortex is naturally weakened by increasing solar irradiation. Part of the reason why conditions tend to become more 'blocky' Mar-Apr with the N. Atlantic westerlies weakening, ahead of the more regional temp gradient-driven increase in May or early June that often, but not always, affects the UK (the 'Euro monsoon' period as some call it).

 

* this being the El Nino pattern that's now established itself

The question is can we get a decent N'ly or NE'ly with CAA to boot before it all warms out up in the polar regions?

25th April 2017-

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Edited by CreweCold
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16 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The question is can we get a decent N'ly or NE'ly with CAA to boot before it all warms out up in the polar regions?

25th April 2017-

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Find me a crystal ball and I'll be sure to let you know 🤪.

Inevitably an increased risk of nighttime snow or ice episodes with the typical Nino pattern. It may help that the anomalous warmth in the Arctic has been tending to focus on the Pacific side in recent times, with the Atlantic side near normal or even a little below toward the fringes (Barents/Kara).

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