Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins

[Methuselah]

The only good thing I can say about the GFS06Z, is that it (hopefully) won't verify...it's too late in the season, for 'the chance of slush' IMO...

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z operational turns into snow heaven..loving these wintry runs!!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Here is the first potential trouble maker, plenty of cold air in the circulation regarding this low pressure system! Gfs starting to stand for GOOD FOR SNOW!! 

Edit.... Just look at some of the snow row activity!! Probably the highest its been since last year. 

[Dunstable Snow]

Just had a quick glance through the Northern hemisphere profile on the latest GFS and the profile up stream and over the pole looks pretty conducive to a largely unsettled and cool to cold outlook for the time of year with even some transitory snow for the south. I may have given up on Fulham retaining our Premier league place for next season but I have not given up on some more snow in the north east Chiltern hills between now and the end of April !

[Optimus Prime]

Interesting ICON for wintriness as early as Friday. 

A strong northerly wind blowing in snow showers for northern and eastern Scotland - Sleet around the coasts. Perhaps wintry showers for eastern England too, but nothing significant and will generally be rain around the coasts.

Dew Points borderline or unfavourable for most, but more favourable in northern areas and areas susceptible to precipitation

Ground temperatures generally quite favourable for some wintriness to fall in the showers.

And then by the weekend the atlantic barrels through and a mild sector crosses

But there is some very cold air coming out from Canada. As long pressure systems, moving towards us from the atlantic mix in with the cold air, there will always be a risk of quite widespread wintriness

Edited March 4, 2019 by Optimus Prime

[Frosty.]

Really pleasing GEFS 6z..screams cold zonality / cyclonic with a good chance of snow shared around the uk judging by these postage stamps..cracking 6z operational too..this could be a very interesting / exciting month for coldies..please make it so..I mean snow!!.

[stodge]

Afternoon all

The 06Z GFS output raises the Stodge eyebrow another notch as we head toward mid month as the Azores HP withdraws further and the jet oscillates to the south of the British Isles. The OP introduces some seriously cold air (-8 850s) and the Parallel isn't much warmer. We know snow can settle in mid March so still a chance for some spring snow for many and especially anywhere to higher ground with the Scottish mountains looking set for a succession of blizzards.

This is a pretty cold air mass profile for mid March. 

The Mean for T+240 indicates some solid agreement at this time for a more NW'ly element to the airflow:

Worth noting the Parallel looks to be setting up a Wave 1 warming in the second half of March which would be interesting if it were sustained but with the zonal winds at near record levels for the time of year it's going to need something pretty dramatic to disrupt the PV.

Plenty to keep the cold fan interested over the next couple of weeks.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Really pleasing GEFS 6z..screams cold zonality / cyclonic with a good chance of snow shared around the uk judging by these postage stamps..cracking 6z operational too..this could be a very interesting / exciting month for coldies..please make it so..I mean snow!!.

Indeed frosty, those postage stamps this winter have been as rare as a half penny black!! Give me both and boy will I be happy.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Something else seeing - 8c uppers coming out of the Atlantic!! All that cold air that as been flooding out of Canada looks like its gonna benefit us big time. And keeping up the theme of earlier runs, the 12z is still going with snow charts more akin to mid winter!! Its early folk, so we have to be cautious.... But it's looking good, and it's spring!!!! 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

The only good thing I can say about the GFS06Z, is that it (hopefully) won't verify...it's too late in the season, for 'the chance of slush' IMO...

more chance of snow off this setup now, maybe not a dumping, but hopefully best snow of season for some, this setup in Nov to mid Feb though, forget it away from hills/north

good chart too, convection kicking off inland no doubt too

Edited March 4, 2019 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Frosty.]

Wow..just wow..and wow again from the Gfs 12z operational ..and this increasing risk of wintry ppn has backing from exeter with temps set to dip below average and snow should therefore be expected to feature more and more..these ain't just pure fantasy charts!!!

Edited March 4, 2019 by Frosty.

[SLEETY]

And once again as spring starts we see charts more wintry then anything we saw over the duration of the winter months. 

Almost nailed in every spring now. Snow for quite a few on this gfs run. 

[feb1991blizzard]

It wont take that mean trough to get much further South to bring Murr back into the equation again!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

25 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Something else seeing - 8c uppers coming out of the Atlantic!! All that cold air that as been flooding out of Canada looks like its gonna benefit us big time. And keeping up the theme of earlier runs, the 12z is still going with snow charts more akin to mid winter!! Its early folk, so we have to be cautious.... But it's looking good, and it's spring!!!! 

I nearly fell through the floor when I clocked this chart!!!! Wowzer!!! 

[Empire Of Snow]

Even though I'm excited with the latest runs, we need to be cautious because these WNW traditionally tend to downgrade as we approach more reliable time frames. A - 8 or - 7 will be enough for snow even in lower levels Southeast but a - 6 will be marginal and probably enough only for some heavy wet snow. 

[feb1991blizzard]

We could do with a decent ECM now to follow it up.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

35 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

We could do with a decent ECM now to follow it up.

Yes hopefully a better EC to avoid another Sunday and another named storm, GFS has next one

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Yes hopefully a better EC to avoid another Sunday and another named storm, GFS has next one

Not bothered whether there is a named storm or not, as long as it contains heavy snow, if fact 80mph winds combined with snow would make the snow even better!

[The PIT]

The man from ECM he say no to Sunday. But then thinks about Monday instead. A least some interesting weather at last.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not bothered whether there is a named storm or not, as long as it contains heavy snow, if fact 80mph winds combined with snow would make the snow even better!

Emma has been the only good named storm here, all others sucked especially Doris

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Emma has been the only good named storm here, all others sucked especially Doris

Anyway, not much sign of the -6c isotherm getting very far South on the ECM, let alone the -8c, lets hope for some better luck from the eps.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Anyway, not much sign of the -6c isotherm getting very far South on the ECM, let alone the -8c, lets hope for some better luck from the eps.

Still pulling in a Nthly Feb, colder uppers incoming! It's actually a colder run than the morning 0z, trust me it's gonna go the gfs route bit by bit!

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Still pulling in a Nthly Feb, colder uppers incoming! It's actually a colder run than the morning 0z, trust me it's gonna go the gfs route bit by bit!

Was about to edit my post and say not a bad 240, too deep into FI though, GFS gets things going in a more reliable timeframe.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Was about to edit my post and say not a bad 240, too deep into FI though, GFS gets things going in a more reliable timeframe.

I think it's slowly pulling in to line though Feb, it never jumps ship instantly, more of a slowly but surely scenario. Yes gfs going all out at a quicker time rate, be interesting to see the 18s later! 

[Derecho]

No sign of any high pressure or warmer weather on the 12z. Pretty cold but probably not cold enough for snow at lower levels, the worst kind of weather.

Boo-urns!!

Edited March 4, 2019 by Quicksilver1989