Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins

[Mike Poole]

23 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The story of the Gfs 12z operational up to and including the 5th April is a predominantly anticyclonic one with rebuilding high pressure cells / ridges, a bit more unsettled across the far north at times..from the 6th it becomes more changeable / unsettled but the south generally the least affected and by the end of the run high pressure is again waiting in the wings to the west.

Yes Karl, good analysis of the 12z GFS and I've highlighted the last bit, it's this reloading of high pressure repeatedly that can become the hallmark of a prolonged hot and dry spell for the UK, as last year, and of course in 1976.  I know it is early days, but if it were on the run up to winter people would be talking about getting the building blocks in place!  

Looking at the GEFS 12z mean, here it is at T180 for comparison with my earlier post:

But at T228 you can start to see even on the mean, the idea of lumps of high pressure starting to form a train towards the UK:

Edited March 24, 2019 by Mike Poole

[MATTWOLVES 3]

15 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes Karl, good analysis of the 12z GFS and I've highlighted the last bit, it's this reloading of high pressure repeatedly that can become the hallmark of a prolonged hot and dry spell for the UK, as last year, and of course in 1976.  I know it is early days, but if it were on the run up to winter people would be talking about getting the building blocks in place!  

And don't forget 95 Mike, one of the warmest summers on record, wouldn't mind a repeat of that.

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

And don't forget 95 Mike, one of the warmest summers on record, wouldn't mind a repeat of that.

Do you know Matt, I can't actually remember 1995!  I think I said this last year, but while I remember 1976 vividly even though I was only 5, I struggle with 1995.  I wasn't particularly interested in the weather then, and while I do remember a summer when the grass went really brown, I couldn't say which year it was!  

Anyway good summers often come in pairs, how's about 2018 and 2019?

[Frosty.]

16 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

And don't forget 95 Mike, one of the warmest summers on record, wouldn't mind a repeat of that.

Dug this out of the archives...hope we see plenty of it again this summer

Anyway, nice spell coming up (apart from the far north) not as cloudy as the last week and probably a tendency for increasingly sunny during the second half of the working week with temperatures slowly rising through the week with friday the peak at 18 / 19c maybe even a 20c somewhere across the s / se..chilly nights though!.

Edited March 24, 2019 by Frosty.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Do you know Matt, I can't actually remember 1995!  I think I said this last year, but while I remember 1976 vividly even though I was only 5, I struggle with 1995.  I wasn't particularly interested in the weather then, and while I do remember a summer when the grass went really brown, I couldn't say which year it was!  

Anyway good summers often come in pairs, how's about 2018 and 2019?

Oh Mike it was a peach, the warmest August on record and the 3rd warmest summer overall behind 76 and 1826.a daily mean  in Central England of 19.2c and a daily maximum of 25.1c in August. With 17.37ccoming in for the entire summer as a whole. A mini heatwave occurred between 28th and 30th of June with a high of 33.8c occurring in this short period. July continued with the hot weather with an average daily maximum of 18.6c meaning it was the 7th warmest July in the CET records back to 1659.days frequently reached above 30c.the highest temp to be recorded was 35.2c,this occurring on August 1st at Cambridgeshire. By the middle of August most of the U.k were suffering from drought conditions with less than 20% of its average rainfall. So in some respects Mike it really peaked into August, where as last years tended to wane come end of July! Could there be a repeat of this or last year this year! Well 77 wouldn't compare to 76,neither would 96 compare to 95! But you just never know Mike.... At the end of the day records are there to be broken!! So heres hoping.

[Mike Poole]

15 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Oh Mike it was a peach, the warmest August on record and the 3rd warmest summer overall behind 76 and 1826.a daily mean  in Central England of 19.2c and a daily maximum of 25.1c in August. With 17.37ccoming in for the entire summer as a whole. A mini heatwave occurred between 28th and 30th of June with a high of 33.8c occurring in this short period. July continued with the hot weather with an average daily maximum of 18.6c meaning it was the 7th warmest July in the CET records back to 1659.days frequently reached above 30c.the highest temp to be recorded was 35.2c,this occurring on August 1st at Cambridgeshire. By the middle of August most of the U.k were suffering from drought conditions with less than 20% of its average rainfall. So in some respects Mike it really peaked into August, where as last years tended to wane come end of July! Could there be a repeat of this or last year this year! Well 77 wouldn't compare to 76,neither would 96 compare to 95! But you just never know Mike.... At the end of the day records are there to be broken!! So heres hoping.

Interesting, thanks, Matt, but re the highlighted bit, that's not the point, it's that 76 was a repeat of 75 (after the snow on 2 June in 75, anyway!).

Edited March 24, 2019 by Mike Poole

[MATTWOLVES 3]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Interesting, thanks, Matt, but re the highlighted bit, that's not the point, it's that 76 was a repeat of 75 (after the snow on 2 Jun, anyway!).

Forgot about 75 Mike, cheers. I think 96 was on the warm side with thundery episodes, if I recall there was an heatwave during early June followed by some spectacular storms,nothing to compare with 95 though! I'm not sure about the 2 coming together though Mike, didn't they always say several bad winters come together as well! Yet since 2010 they have pretty much been all over the place. I think I will leave that decision in your capable hands Mike.... But I would like to think we would be getting a decent summer this year, would it match last year? Not so sure.... But who knows, you just can't rule anything out with current warming going on around the globe. 

[Frosty.]

All things considered, a very decent GEFS 12z mean throughout, it follows the operational idea of rebuilding high pressure cells keeping the weather predominantly settled across much of the uk and then even further ahead maintaining ridge (s) with the unsettled conditions associated with the jet stream tending to stay further north..doesn't preclude some changeable blips (especially further north) but the emphasis is on high pressure / ridging, more so across southern uk longer term.

Edited March 24, 2019 by Frosty.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just now, Frosty. said:

All things considered, a very decent GEFS 12z mean throughout, it follows the operational idea of rebuilding high pressure cells keeping the weather predominantly settled across much of the uk and then eve further ahead maintaining ridge (s) with the unsettled conditions associated with the jet stream tending to stay further north.

Yep Karl well put and I've got to agree. The GFSP probably not even worth assessing at the moment as well, this morning we had - 8 uppers moving from the east with an Easterly! Now the 12z para has upper air temps of +8c at the same time frame!! The model just doesn't seem to have a clue right now.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Ecm keeping us settled through till next weekend, temps becoming suppressed though beyond 5 days, with low pressure taking over by day 8, and quite a bit cooler.. Worth noting though that high pressure is never far away and looks strong towards the SW! I think we still looking good for another warmer and settled spell towards mid month. 

Edit.... I wouldn't rule out a bit of the white stuff has a Nthly is pulled down by day 10.....youve been warned!!!!  Ohhhh boy!!! 

Edited March 24, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Frosty.]

Something for the coldies..hello is there anybody still there from the cold mafia or is just Don Frosty left? 

Edited March 24, 2019 by Frosty.

[Mike Poole]

ECM 12z out.  Here in the reliable or semi- reliable:

But then this happens, T240

The cold marches!  Against most model output today but in these uncertain times who knows?

[BlazeStorm]

Recall posting something towards the end of January flirting with the (daft) idea that winter will arrive just in time for the Game of Thrones finale, as HBO would have wanted. Shortly after, this post was removed by the mods. Now observing the charts there are indications (think ECM) that this may well be the case. Will be interesting to see what happens around Easter, equally interested to see whether this post also gets removed for suggesting something so absurd. Exciting times!

 

Edited March 24, 2019 by BlazeStorm
punct.

[Frosty.]

Still some close call arctic shots in the GEFS 12z but also some plume / warm high pressure potential as we head into early april..spring is a most interesting season where you can get an early taste of summer or a vicious sting in the tail to winter..or in our case, the winter that never was..for most north of the M4 corridor!

Confused?..you will be

Edited March 24, 2019 by Frosty.

[Mike Poole]

ECM 12z mean looks like supporting the argument that a short period of unsettled weather might come into play late next week, but with high pressure holding atT168

...and reasserting itself at T240

...the countdown to summer continues....

[MATTWOLVES 3]

21 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

 

Confused?..you will be

Its just crazy ain't it!! My initial reaction when I viewed this was it was some kind of joke or mistake... But apperantly not! Even now I'm kind of......... 

[knocker]

There is still massive uncertainty vis the 5-10 period.

The det output has a lobe of the vortex over Canada at T144 and tracks it east to be over Iceland by T180 with a trough NW of the UK. Over the next 24 hours it amplifies the subtropical high in mid Atlantic towards Greenland and the European high into Scandinavia resulting in the trough and cold air plunging south over the UK

The mean EPS is having none of this so the clusters will be of some interest but for the moment I'm treating the latter stages of the det run with a liberal dose of saxo. The models appear to be struggling with the energy distribution in the 5-10 range

Edited March 24, 2019 by knocker

[Frosty.]

Looking at the day 10 Ecm 12z ensemble mean you wouldn't think there was anything wintry lurking in the woodshed would you? (like the operational shows) the mean indicates the azores ridge is very close to the southwest and the pattern is pretty flat!

Edited March 24, 2019 by Frosty.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 hour ago, BlazeStorm said:

Recall posting something towards the end of January flirting with the (daft) idea that winter will arrive just in time for the Game of Thrones finale, as HBO would have wanted. Shortly after, this post was removed by the mods. Now observing the charts there are indications (think ECM) that this may well be the case. Will be interesting to see what happens around Easter, equally interested to see whether this post also gets removed for suggesting something so absurd. Exciting times!

 

Bit of a long shot mate, Easter this year being on the 21st, ECM is showing a colder spell around day 10, but I would imagine if it does come off, it would be relatively short lived! The operational being quite a bit lower than the mean, so far from a done deal I would say. 

Edited March 24, 2019 by Mattwolves

[MATTWOLVES 3]

11 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Looking at the day 10 Ecm 12z ensemble mean you wouldn't think there was anything wintry lurking in the woodshed would you? (like the operational shows) the mean indicates the azores ridge is very close to the southwest and the pattern is pretty flat!

Yes Karl it does look a bit flat, and high pressure always looking relatively close.... By the way have you got a new friend in the above picture.... He definitely suffering from model fatigue.

Edited March 24, 2019 by Mattwolves

[ANYWEATHER]

42 minutes ago, BlazeStorm said:

Recall posting something towards the end of January flirting with the (daft) idea that winter will arrive just in time for the Game of Thrones finale, as HBO would have wanted. Shortly after, this post was removed by the mods. Now observing the charts there are indications (think ECM) that this may well be the case. Will be interesting to see what happens around Easter, equally interested to see whether this post also gets removed for suggesting something so absurd. Exciting times!

 

Good Evening! I think youre right, and certainly not daft. I write for a local magazine , for my weather predictions for April , and my thoughts are for a much colder April than average , record cold in Greenland. This cold needs to spill somewhere a mid Atlantic ridge forming....April , Looking at all the data from ecm and gfs , I see some serious cold spilling from the record cold Artic, But at the same time computer models have no idea, on this evolution ...Interesting Times.....

[abruzzi spur]

23 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Good Evening! I think youre right, and certainly not daft. I write for a local magazine , for my weather predictions for April , and my thoughts are for a much colder April than average , record cold in Greenland. This cold needs to spill somewhere a mid Atlantic ridge forming....April , Looking at all the data from ecm and gfs , I see some serious cold spilling from the record cold Artic, But at the same time computer models have no idea, on this evolution ...Interesting Times.....

Hope you have a decent proof reader.

Lovely and warm in East Surrey today, a max of 15.3c in Reigate town.  Looks warmer as the week progresses.  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

19 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Good Evening! I think youre right, and certainly not daft. I write for a local magazine , for my weather predictions for April , and my thoughts are for a much colder April than average , record cold in Greenland.

Interesting thoughts about April and pointing out how cold it currently is in Greenland. Apperantly summers in Greenland have been cooling in recent years as well. In 2017 a new July low of - 33c was recorded at the summit. 2018 was also the coolest summer for the area in 20 years. Frequent snowfall increased the surface mass budget of the ice cap by nearly 150bn tonnes, slightly less than 2016/2017 for 6th highest on record. A cold may in which summit temps of - 46.3c was recorded, this marking a new may record for Greenland and delayed the melt season till June. Temperatures in both August and September got within 1-2c of the monthly cold records. In August the temp dropped to - 39c. And in September it hit - 44c.In October the temp dropped to - 55.4c,this surpassing the previous record October record of - 55.2c.So all in all a quite interesting last year in Greenland, and like you mention, some very cold conditions spilling out of there right now. 

[Frosty.]

I'm certainly not seeing or expecting a much colder than average april looking at the longer term model trends and of course exeter, indeed the second half of April could be warmer than average, at least further south...reading between the lines of the current / recent updates...just because the arctic is super cold doesn't mean we will see any of it!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

10 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I'm certainly not seeing or expecting a much colder than average april looking at the longer term model trends and of course exeter, indeed the second half of April could be warmer than average, at least further south...reading between the lines of the current / recent updates...just because the arctic is super cold doesn't mean we will see any of it!

There is certainly a lot of cold air spilling out of Greenland, I've also noticed that Exeter are using that o so familiar word... Uncertainty in their recent updates as well. But Yeh your correct, it doesn't matter how much cold air is bottled up around us, there is know guarantee we will see any of it. I would say we run a risk of a cold shot or 2...  But to call a much colder than average month would be brave.... Mind you Karl it would take a brave person to predict any month of the year being colder than normal right now!