Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins

[Frosty.]

The signal for early april becomes a bit confusing to say the least!

Edited March 23, 2019 by Frosty.

[DR(S)NO]

[MATTWOLVES 3]

43 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The signal for early april becomes a bit confusing to say the least!

 

The signal for early april becomes a bit confusing to say the least!

 

Talk about spaghetti plot, this would make heinz proud! 

[knocker]

Outlook - High pressure will remain in charge most of this week, albeit some systems will sneak around the top effecting the north. But it is not by any means a static pattern as there is a lot of energy exiting the eastern seaboard into the Atlantic, And under pressure from this, despite some renewed amplification,  the ridge will gradually re orientate east through the week

The NH 500mb profile and the Atlantic surface analysis for midnight and the 0300 WV image

The low over Iceland at midnight, and the associated cold front, will move south  east during the day to be in southern Norway by midnight with the cold front, now a very weak feature, trailing across N. Ireland and northern England. This results in the strong winds continuing for a while over Scotland and a continuation of the blustery wintry showers and longer periods of rain, which will move south into northern England during the day, Most of this activity will die out during the evening. Elsewhere, once the weakening front is out of the way it should be quite pleasant with sunny periods

Through the early hours the high pressure is consolidating over the UK and the weakening front drifts more west now so cloudy in these regions with perhaps the odd spot of drizzle. but some patchy frost to the east where the skies clear.

By midday Monday the weak front is orientated down western regions of the UK so cloud and some patchy rain/drizzle in these regions but elsewhere fine with sunny intervals and quite warm where these occur.

Over Monday night and through Tuesday the high cell remains centered near southern Ireland so a tranquil day for most with temps a tad above average but cloud may be a bit tricky with regional variations. But systems are still tracking north east around the NW flank of the high and a front adjacent to northern Scotland will bring some rain to this area and a fair breeze

This remains the situation over Tuesday night and through Wednesday although a cold front has approached from the north west to bring some cloud and rain to this region.

But by Thursday there is a lot going on to the west with a number of waving, and weakening fronts, running north east in the very strong upper flow south east of the trough over Greenland. And as can be seen the energy distribution is quite complex..This really again only effects Scotland with some patchy rain and quite strong winds whilst everywhere else will remain quite warm with variable cloud and sunny intervals.

Edited March 24, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

To continue briefly with the gfs.Through the end of the week the major trough tracks east to be east of Iceland by Saturday with a cold front tracking south east down the country, and thus some patchy rain but also much cooler air introduced overnight and into Sunday with a quite severe frost in northern regions Sunday morning.and then quite a cold day with temps below average to follow. The ridge is now quite suppressed

Over the beginning of next week, after some brief transient ridging, further troughs tracking east Greenland > Iceland > Scandinavia dominate proceedings resulting in the UK being a fresh W/NW airstream with temps a tad below average.

[knocker]

Predictable the ecm is not in agreement with the gfs in the 5-10 range as it's not in a hurry to ruch further troughs through in the north.

Thus after a weak front tracking south east down the country Frid/Sat some renewed amplification and a new high cell crossing the country Sunday/Monday But on Sunday another low has tracked north east from the eastern seaboard to phase with trough over Greenland and the associated front is orientated just to the west of the transient ridge in mid Atlantic This moves east to bring heavy rain and strong winds to western regions by midnight, Obviously, given the continuing disagreement between the models in this time frame, any detail is highly suspect

[knocker]

Some nasty weather over western Scotland at the moment courtesy the cold front and trough. And it's about time the front cleared away from down here.

[johnholmes]

Sunday 24 March

Five days on so what are the anomaly charts showing?

ECMWF-GFS and EC has a rather different slant on the upper air predicted pattern. More of an Atlantic flow and less ridging in the UK area, in fact troughing being suggested in the flow around the UK.

GFS has a faily strong flow N of W into the UK with the Azores upper ridge quite noticeable and the troughing much more marked east of the UK than on EC. Neither suggests any prolonged settled weather for northern areas, perhaps more so for the southern-most parts?

NOAA shows the biggest change from 5 days ago with no sign of any contour ridging or +ve heights anywhere near the UK. Its 6-10 shows a broad trough over the country with +ve heights way west.

So overall then by 4-6 days from now we should expect a spell of less settled weather than some have had over the past few days. This part of the UK has had little rain for about a week now .Nor does the 8-14 show any signal for this pattern not to continue. Just how much of the Uk and how changeable/unsettled it will become will need the 4x/2x daily synoptic outputs to give that detail. The possibility in this predicted pattern would allow for brief colder bursts to the rear of any marked Atlantic depressions.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

[Methuselah]

Morning all. Good to see the GFS is off to a blinder, at T+0! 

[Frosty.]

Nice to see all the 00z models singing from the same hymn sheet!..Last week was also high pressure dominated but that was a cloudy high for many, yes there was some warm sunny weather but that was much less widespread!  however this week's high will be sunnier with less cloud trapped within it..Let's enjoy it while it lasts!!

[Methuselah]

Midweek's not looking three bad:  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Things looking largely settled next week has you will be already aware. Beyong that their is a tendancy to break things down from ECM, and also now the gfs 6z at a similar time frame... Low pressure being anchored to the NW at times. Temperatures a fair bit cooler at times also, hopefully this won't be a long drawn out thing, with hopefully high pressure regaining a foot hold towards mid month!! 

Edited March 24, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Frosty.]

6z looks great for most of the week ahead under high pressure apart from the far nw / n, friday looks the warmest day further s / se..partial breakdown next weekend for a time before high pressure again gets the upper hand but the dam finally bursts on Wed 3rd April when we see a major change to very unsettled and much cooler weather..even a risk of some snow over northern hills, especially the scottish mountains at times through low res but as we know FI chops and changes..High res looks very decent for the majority.

Edited March 24, 2019 by Frosty.

[Methuselah]

Crikey! Any more of this the Murr People will be back: 

  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Crikey! Any more of this the Murr People will be back: 

  

Didn't notice that model run Pete, was it the GFSP? Haha... Its gonna have to be bad for Steve M to make a return at this late stage now.

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Its gonna have to be bad for Steve M to make a return at this late stage now.

He was lurking yesterday so you never know

Anyway, let's enjoy the sunshine and high pressure in the coming days and hope deeper Fi improves.

Edited March 24, 2019 by Frosty.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Well hello gorgeous, where have you been? All winter you have teased us, and when you realized we had finally given in the chase..... You decided to come back and tease us some more.... Bad boy FV3... bad boy!! 

PS... I'm gerrin a feeling this model will still be toying with us in July folks!! Mind you an Easterly at this point wouldn't be a bad thing at all, especially with a hot continent!!!

[Frosty.]

Silly timeframe...BUT....B A N K very warm and humid with potentially thundery rain, plenty of sun..great growing weather

Edited March 24, 2019 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

On the other hand..chance of snow for some..in the north next weekend!

Edited March 24, 2019 by Frosty.

[knocker]

High res. sat. image at 1233. Cracking day here now

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just thought I would share this with you good folk, basically showing the heating going on right now over the arctic! Quite extreme by the looks of it. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Nearly up to day 10 and the 12z still bringing us a good deal of settled weather, high pressure still seems to be having a foot hold. 

Pressure finally starting to decline, with low pressure devoloping from the NW beyond day 10.

Finishing with low pressure over us and perhaps a cold feed wrapping around has the low clears... Beyond that who knows! 

Edited March 24, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Methuselah]

And, with Incontinence Day fast approaching, even the weather goes pear-shaped!

   

[Mike Poole]

So, some model results from the 12z suite, here ICON, GEM and GFS at T180, the start of April:

We're starting to see signs now of a movement north of the jet stream, which is what we need to see consistently as we move towards summer if the predictions of the long range models for a hot summer are to come to fruition.  

 

[Frosty.]

The story of the Gfs 12z operational up to and including the 5th April is a predominantly anticyclonic one with rebuilding high pressure cells / ridges, a bit more unsettled across the far north at times..from the 6th it becomes more changeable / unsettled but the south generally the least affected and by the end of the run high pressure is again waiting in the wings to the west.

Edited March 24, 2019 by Frosty.