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Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
51 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Yeh was just gonna say Pete the 12z finishes with a dartboard low over us, and perhaps a feed of cold air wrapping round that low has it clears! Could pull down some cold air... But obviously to far out to get really excited about! 

Aye Matt. The Paralytic goes a bit loopy too:

image.thumb.png.15dad1dc658099199e6e62390c4f6455.pngimage.thumb.png.31ca90a7e2ff5c1c8c125df9c14396ca.png  

Let's just hope the PFJ stays away till next November.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Early days, very early days but something I noticed in the extended range GEFS 12z is potential for warm / very warm air to be drawn up from southern europe during early april..I'm seeing plume potential which I'm also hoping we will see plenty of by late spring and throughout the summer..you may look at the mean and think meh but when you go through the postage stamps there is some interest!

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Suttle changes from the 0z and 12z ecm in the latter stages, the former having low pressure close to our West, and the latter much further to our North!! Looks to me like high pressure is always going to be close by.... Any unsettled conditions I feel will be mainly to the N/NW, with plenty of settled Conditions further S/SE. I'm certainly not seeing much of a rampant Atlantic at this stage, even though we are at the stage it tends to slumber. 

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Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Tonight's Ecm 12z mean becomes increasingly pleasant next week for the majority following a cooler slightly less settled blip this weekend and longer term doesn't look as unsettled as it has recently.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Some interesting adjustments by the ext EPS over the last three days. Upstream some intensifying of the Alaskan ridge/N. Canada vortex amplification and still a strong westerly upper flow exiting the north eastern seaboard. But changes to the configuration of the Iceland trough apparently facilitates the subtropical high in mid Atlantic to ridge more north east towards the UK. This ,combined with low pressure off the NW coast of North Africa stretching to the eastern Mediterranean, diverges the westerly flow quite markedly in mid Atlantic so that the UK is in a very slack regime, particularly south of Scotland, as a result The resulting detail vis the weather is not in the remit of these charts and the det. runs will need to sort this out but probably the temps not far off average.

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And this evening's NOAA is not a million miles from this

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

I don't think we can look much further than T168 with much confidence at the moment, here GEM, JMA, ECM, GFS, FV3:

image.thumb.jpg.a23c2bb0d89c1190a40ab59a5dddc36d.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.6af8f472579dcae7a550c362e2a4cf76.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.eda066e695a4850f1092d9883f40f70d.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.55854e5a6d82a36a6f5205ba2bfb5b7d.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.4fc6cd00c7f3152810165013f4feac7d.jpg

when you look at the ECM ensemble mean at same time it suggests a variety of solutions, looks like some solutions with high pressure and some with flat zonal making up that mean to me.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Wonder if that low west of Spain on the pub run at T228 is the trigger for a period of settled high pressure dominated weather for the UK, and maybe more...

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I feel this will happen, high pressure in the run in to summer,but how   exactly this will develop  still unclear.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I mentioned earlier about potential for southerly sourced air during early april and that's exactly what tonight's Gfs 18z shows...as for next week we have high pressure anchored over the uk so a very pleasant week for the majority, even the far north looks fine after next tuesday for several days.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Good points being made Karl and Mike, was just gonna say looking at the low pressure Mike pointed out and the southerly wind was almost like a summer chart, heat being transferred north followed by a thundery breakdown! It does go all Pete tong though right at the end with low pressure anchored to our NW and a fair bit cooler......... Boooohhh, shoot the messanger!!!!

 

Edit... And the FV3 really does decide to P on our parade towards the end of its run!! 

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Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Outlook - essentially high pressure will be the dominating influence over the next few days as a high cell tracks from the SW > SE via the UK. Not all plain sailing as systems will ingress around the northern flank thus tending towards a NW/SE split somewhat which is well illustrated with the precipitation chart.

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Meanwhile the NH 500mb profile and the Atlantic analysis for midnight and the WV sat. image for 0300

gfs_z500a_nh_1.thumb.png.d37c152f541c4ce97631f9823e2fd43b.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.77937f5b12020db2efdad1290bbed011.gifwv.thumb.JPG.99ff9f3aea4aeaf2724b93fe35c446fd.JPG

So following on from a post yesterday. The weakening cold front that is currently crossing the the south of England and Wales is now essentially just a cloud feature with a few bits and bobs of rain/drizzle but as it stalls along the Channel this unfortunately will linger all day and through tonight over the south west and southern coastal areas.

Behind the front where the sun breaks through it will be quite warm but cooler in the north where showers will continue for a while over western Scotland albeit the  strong wind abating through the day.

It will be a relatively clear night in most places so quite a widespread frost by morning but a cold front associated with a low over Iceland encroaches from the north west and will bring more squally showers, and more persistent rain, to Scotland through the early hours of tomorrow.

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Through Sunday the front tracks a little south east but is struggling against the ridge so the squally showers only impact Scotland and northern England, possibly, Northern Ireland, whilst the rest of England and Wales will be predominately sunny once the front in the channel has gone.

PPVG89.thumb.gif.ed10faae2f680c37a2bbb568c128b968.gif1402681215_maxsun.thumb.png.f65b4578670eba28bdfb008a57ccdff7.pngr09.thumb.png.fe11d7d7bda5bd3eee0a697db26d8032.pngr12.thumb.png.af40e134115419949135d28423c2bffa.pngr15.thumb.png.ac25afd2c691476ad3ab96f06e01a648.pngr18.thumb.png.6eb2976dd0d99d3765f8eea3107cf51a.png

But as has been mentioned previously this is the point where a trough has tracked up the eastern seaboard and phased with the vortex, which initiates renewed ridging of the subtropical high in the Atlantic. Thus over Sunday night and into Monday the aforementioned low tracks into southern Scandinavia and the occlusion brings some rain overnight into Scotland as the wind veers north westerly and is quite strong for a while down the north east coast. Elsewhere over England and Wales dry with sunny intervals as the cold front is now weakening and being forced west by all the maneuvering

gfs_z500a_nh_9.thumb.png.a1e58e1b8a25f83576ee64391457f3ec.pngPPVI89.thumb.gif.d3a7bba5426b8b401532067d1a0d001f.gifPPVJ89.thumb.gif.11e5cdb281e533276764d3250f75ef9f.gif

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Over Monday night and through Tuesday the high pressure consolidates and is now centred just south of Ireland thus a dry day with sunny intervals for most with temps a tad above average. The exception again being northern Scotland where the presence of a cold front will bring some patchy rain and a fair breeze.

PPVK89.thumb.gif.34ad5b2963e4c4e8cf24b49259575e1e.gifPPVL89.thumb.gif.ded0c7bb9ebf95c5a5d9d53abbdfa91c.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_16.thumb.png.6905cee75fb291a9de0808396cbfdce1.png

A not dissimilar, but warmer, day on Wednesday as the cold front slips a tad further south.

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

To continue briefly with the gfs, The ridge quite quickly comes under pressure and is forced east by the end of next week as another trough drops into the Atlantic and moves east Thus although Friday and Saturday will be quite warm in the southerly drift that ensues by midday Saturday a surface low is perched just west of Ireland and this will bring some showery and windy conditions on Sunday. But that is a long way off

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm is looking to break down the ridge a tad quicker and by Friday/Sat has front tracking south down the country bringing some rain and quite windy in the north The ridge is still hanging in there on Sunday but has given up the ghost by Monday. Obviously the detail in the5-10 period still to be resolved

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The mean EPS does indicate a brief lapse into unsettled territory as indicated by the det run but then a respite from this in the longer range as discussed briefly last evening

index.thumb.png.f7279d4c14bec4f10dffd10fd16cdf18.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Indications starting to show on the 500 mb anomaly charts that the ridging being in charge for most is looking like the upper troughing will become the main feature over the next 6-10 days?

Will try and post more with charts tomorrow, IF they still show a similar idea.

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Northerly and then an Easterly back on the agenda again looking at gfs this morning.,so I'm coming back again Will one run that is showing an easterly ever ever verify that's the question

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Posted
  • Location: South East London (Bromley)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Heat, Thunderstorms, Wind
  • Location: South East London (Bromley)

Hi, if you are talking about the past archives, you can go back to 1871, every day with these.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
8 minutes ago, Neil Harris said:

Has anyone got the April 2007 models please?

Talk of April warmth always reminds me of that terrific month, a dismal summer followed though so is there any similarities?

GFS back to 07 here https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&carte=0&mode=0&archive=1&runpara=0

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
51 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Northerly and then an Easterly back on the agenda again looking at gfs this morning.,

Both of them are lame, especially the easterly..think I'll pass:whistling:

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00_324_uk2mtmp.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

06Z for Wednesday looks rather spiffing.   image.thumb.png.148b7b61ed194f401a5296ab2d427346.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

And still the chance of ending up with a long-draw southerly - of sorts:

 

image.thumb.png.02d4c33d1107fd7ad0b83616da53c03b.pngimage.thumb.png.b80567d565d1b35dec5697ffd619ad08.png     

 

00Z GEFS means not much to write home about, though: image.thumb.png.48dc154da0b18ac7a4823850b558156b.png

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Interesting end to the 6z, we literally have a huge block in place to our East, with the atlantic systems grinding to a halt to our west! The UK kind of being at the halfway house! 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

More worrying to a mildie is the ECM wanting to keep flirting us with a colder maritime type set up towards the end of its run! Amazing how much cold air we are still seeing to the W/NW. Either way Im not fussed, I'm not gonna start going down the road of another wild goose cold chase now! I'm still recovering in a clinic from the 4 month one I've just endured!! The specialist said you should know better Mattwolves..... Chasing cold in the uk is a major factor in PTSD!! LOL

ECM1-240.gif

ECM0-240.gif

ECM0-192.gif

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Guest Delete Me

Frustrating setup on the cards, we will be essentially in no mans land with a cold pool flirting with us to the W/NW and milder conditions wanting to come up from the south.

As Matt has said, I've had it with chasing cold now so roll on Spring and Summer.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

High pressure domination next week is a slam dunk for the majority and looking further ahead the Ecm 00z ensemble mean doesn't look particularly unsettled, especially further south where it could continue rather pleasant into early april.

EDM1-240.GIF

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