Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins

[daz_4]

Hoping ECM is off the mark with the cold air being that far west next week. I'm flying to Barcelona and don't need any funny business from winter now, heh.

[SLEETY]

On 19/03/2019 at 09:11, SLEETY said:

ecm even closer with the easterly than it was last night,are we about to see our first decent easterly of the year as we head towards April,most probably,just enough time left for snow even on low ground,awaiting the next run with renewed interest

Then that was that and all models decided no chance and the pattern is as flat as can be again.

Going to be one amazing summer if this continues,with constants belts of High pressure moving up over the U.K. from the South.

Anyway time to say goodbye to you all here regarding the never ending chase for what we wanted.

Gentlemen it’s been a pleasure  

 

[Frosty.]

34 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Gentlemen it’s been a pleasure  

 

What about the Ladies?

Anyway, Gfs 00z operational shows high pressure dominance pretty much for the next 2 weeks

Edited March 21, 2019 by Frosty.

[feb1991blizzard]

[Methuselah]

Would you Adam & Eve it!    

                                               

 

 

Edited March 21, 2019 by Ed Stone

[Frosty.]

March roars out like a lion and April Fools Day roars in like a lion!!..just for fun of course!now mattwolves is gone there really are only a few coldies left standing..or in my case..sitting!

Edited March 21, 2019 by Frosty.

[fujita5]

That would certainly bring some convective stuff southwards - bit of solar input to spice things up too, could see some potent showers with a bit of everything thrown in!  Bring it on....

[mb018538]

Like an unwanted relative hanging round too long at Christmas.....that bloody last piece of the winter polar vortex won't bugger off from its semi-permanent home! 



In the longer term - the trend is still there for the Atlantic trough to become more dominant again from the high pressure set up in the short term (D6 vs D12):



In short - enjoy the nice calm weather while it lasts!

Edited March 21, 2019 by mb018538

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

A change in wind direction brings cooler weather this weekend...... but for some coastal areas that's been plagued for days by chilly sea mist/drizzle like here in South Wales, it could actually turn a tad milder than recently as we lose the mist with the sunshine set to return on Sunday bringing temperatures up to 11-12C, which should feel pleasant in the increasing strength of late March sunshine. Milder still next week with 15-16C possible inland 11-14C on the coasts

[stodge]

Afternoon all

Indications of a relaxing, warming and weakening PV on the 06Z Parallel and mirrored on the Control see mid-Atlantic ridging and the trough dropping SE across NW Europe and the British Isles. Those which hold the PV in place keep flattening the Azores LP east into Iberia or France and hold a relatively mild pattern.

The 10HPA temperatures rise to -56 in early April as the final warming (or at least a return to more normal conditions) develop and the zonal wind eases too allowing amplification in the Atlantic.

It may need repeating but if you want unusual synoptics and a N'ly or E'ly your best chances are April and May as the warmer and colder airmasses mix and meet and the winter set up relents. Cold 850s in April usually mean convection and that can mean heavy thundery and wintry showers with hail and snow to higher ground and large temperature variations during the day as showers pass over (and with calm surface conditions quite intense downpours can result). Needless to say as the warmth of the day relents frost and fog take over and quite sharp frosts are still possible well into April even in southern lowland areas.

The other player is the falling heights to the far south over Iberia and North Africa. These are not unusual and indeed a precursor to summer but if we see a significant LP develop that will force the Azores HP to ridge further north and north east offering an E'ly which would being cool gllom to eastern and southern coasts but warm sunshine to northern and western areas and a risk of thundery showers to the far south over time. This is another aspect of mid-Atlantic ridging and the declining PV which sees heights rise in the ocean but fall over southern and south western Europe.

 

[Frosty.]

Unsurprisingly there's very little support from the GEFS 6z for the 6z operational arctic plunge at the end of march / start of April but there is plenty of support for the predominantly anticyclonic spell to continue beyond next week...anyway, the mean looks excellent next week with high pressure firmly in control and very pleasant surface conditions, especially across most of england and wales but with some cold nights where skies clear with slight frosts and patchy mist and fog.

Edited March 21, 2019 by Frosty.

[Timmytour]

Is there a word for a high pressure system that stays in the south Atlantic but extends its influence eastwards so that the winds for the UK are more westerly or north westerly and the chance for any plumes get snuffed out?  Thinking it would be a Summer version of a Bartlett. Got a feeling such a set up could end up dominating the early part of our summer... An example of what i mean.....(position wise.....not suggesting this particular set up will stay in place....)

 

[Frosty.]

Yes it's a silly timeframe but hands up, who would fancy this in early April?..whether it's a very early warm spell or very late arctic plunge..it's all good as far as I'm concerned...thumbs up from me..P3 please

Edited March 21, 2019 by Frosty.

[knocker]

A 'window' in the north east at 1400

[Methuselah]

And...some potential: 

                                   

Getting interesting:       

 

One for the bin!            

Edited March 21, 2019 by Ed Stone

[knocker]

The overall situation. The wave that is forming o the front that is currently draped across central Scotland will undergo rapid cyclogenesis this evening and overnight near the left exit of the jet streak, and will be 958mb near south east Iceland by 0600,#

So through this evening and overnight the aforementioned front, and the very patchy rain, will move back north over N. Scotland before clearing leaving the whole of the UK still in the warm and moist airflow along the north western flank of the ridge Some bits and bobs of rain/drizzle in western areas and some low Stratus and mist elsewhere. But by morning the wind will be picking up in the north west and by morning rain from the cold front associated with low mentioned at the beginning will be effecting N. Ireland and the western Isles. This cold front will also introduce cooler and clearer air.

Edited March 21, 2019 by knocker

[Frosty.]

To me the Gfs 12z operational is looking great for much of next week under a strong anticyclone with temps into the mid to upper teens celsius, low to mid 60's F across the southern half of the uk, a bit cooler than that further north. It also indicates variable cloud cover from day to day but plenty of sunshine, however, nights look cold enough for ground frosts and even a touch of air frost where skies clear and also a risk of patchy mist / fog...low res on the other hand continues to show some wintry potential for a time with snow for some, mainly further north.

Edited March 21, 2019 by Frosty.

[Methuselah]

The Paralytic also looks good enough, next week:  

 

A major Atlantic incursion incoming?                       

Come back Mattwolves?                                          

 

More potential:                                                          

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Ha ha Pete, aka Ed Stone. I'm just lurking. I was annoyed yesterday with a few things and decided perhaps it would be best if I refrained from posting for a while, that on top of the never-ending chase for the cold pot of gold which stayed as far away as ever... But I've been reading netweather and this forum for over 10 years, even though I only started posting a couple of months ago. It's still great just to read all the brill posts, and get the latest info in what's going on. Looks like Karl is flying the cold flag alone now... Bless him... Lol, perhaps Feb will still chip in with a bit of support, even you Pete.... Who knows!!! Keep up the great work I will still be popping in to get the latest weather news and to basically put likes to some of the fab comments that get posted on here!! As for me!?? Well let's call it a bit of a sabbatical!!

[Mike Poole]

Today's 12 z ECM brings the settled spell up and beyond T168:

But still the chance of a significant cold shot around the turn of the month, t240:

But I'm confident at the moment that a fairly early start to summer has a good chance of taking shape as April rumbles on (this from the long range models as per previous posts).

[Frosty.]

I imagine a cold start to April judging by the Ecm 12z T+240 chart..but before that possibility there appears to be plenty of pleasant anticyclonic weather for most of next week following a cooler less settled weekend and start to next week before the uppers start to warm through again..at least for a time but as I mentioned about the Gfs 12z operational the nights next week could be a tad chilly.

PS..nice to see Mattwolves lurking

Edited March 21, 2019 by Frosty.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

9 hours ago, Frosty. said:

What about the Ladies?

Anyway, Gfs 00z operational shows high pressure dominance pretty much for the next 2 weeks

Aye great charts, but nothing anywhere near as good as 6 years ago today, to the day, absolute dumping of snow over weekend of 23-24 Mar!, forum was buzzing, then the days after bright sunshine, remains of snowmen still around into early April

[Frosty.]

April 1st could be interesting for coldies or maybe I'm just a fool

[I remember Atlantic 252]

7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

April 1st could be interesting for coldies or maybe I'm just a fool

I only want cold if it's going to be very snowy, not horrible 5 degrees and bitter cold rain/wind, 

if not snowy then bring on the warmth, so of the GFS 12Z, probably my favourite chart

[knocker]

The ext EPS is remaining reasonable consistent A strong, negatively aligned Alaskan ridge and a rather amorphous vortex over northern Canada with two troughs associated with he latter, eastern North america and south east Greenland > western Europe. Still a fairly strong westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard across the Atlantic but with the subtropical still amplifying north somewhat in mid Atlantic and aided by the aforementioned trough, this veers north west and abates to some extent over the UK This would portend some unsettled weather with temps a tad below average but the position and intensity of any ridging in the Atlantic is paramount