Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Wow!! The GFSP doesn't want to go along with the notion it's spring! First a potent Nthly, then an Estly! It's coming..... Is it.... Isn't it..... Maybe..... Its a major cold bias, or its nailed it!!! 

[Frosty.]

I'm not giving up on the chances of at least one decent arctic blast before it's too late and the GEFS 6z shows some support..as Delia Smith once said ..where are you?..let's be havin you!!!... Mr or Mrs Northerly!!!!

Edited March 20, 2019 by Frosty.

[Methuselah]

GFSP looks 'interesting' for Monday, before inland convection gets snuffed-out: 

And, as with the GFS, All Fools' Day looks benign: 

And it all ends with one almighty aaaarrrrrgghhhh! 

 

Edited March 20, 2019 by Ed Stone

[Frosty.]

49 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I'm not giving up on the chances of at least one decent arctic blast before it's too late

Anyone who thinks I'm crazy looking for an April Northerly should look back at the archives to late April 1981 when there were severe blizzards, over a foot of level snow and drifts several feet deep..and that was almost May!!!!!

Edited March 20, 2019 by Frosty.

[Methuselah]

Just now, Frosty. said:

Anyone who thinks I'm crazy looking for an April Northerly should look back at the archives to late April 1981 when there were severe blizzards, over a foot of level snow and drifts several feet deep..and that was almost May!!!!!

True enough, Karl...but you're still crazy!

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

True enough, Karl...but you're still crazy!

Absolutely Ed..I mean Pete

You can't take the coldie out of the coldie..if that makes sense

Nice to see some cold eye candy on the Gefs today!

[knocker]

This evening and tonight the wave and then the associated cold front are never that far away from the north of Scotland and thus the patchy rain will become quite heavy by the early hours and also quite breezy here.

Elsewhere it is cloudy at the moment with some wave clouds in the north of Scotland, but mild and quite warm in the regions where the cloud breaks as can be seen. And it will remain generally cloudy and mild overnight with perhaps some patchy rain/drizzle in western regions. Certainly a long way from any frost

Edited March 20, 2019 by knocker

[Frosty.]

My eyes may be deceiving me but the longer term GEFS 6z mean doesn't look as changeable / unsettled as it did yesterday, high pressure or at least ridging stays close to the uk even into early april. As for next week, no change as such from the gefs / ecm mean, it looks anticyclonic following the cooler more changeable weekend blip, certainly looks much better from next tuesday, however, the longer term ecm mean is trending gradually more unsettled towards day 10.

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

This evening and tonight the wave and then the associated cold front are never that far away from the north of Scotland and thus the patchy rain will become quite heavy by the early hours and also quite breezy here.

Elsewhere it is cloudy at the moment with some wave clouds in the north of Scotland, but mild and quite warm in the regions where the cloud breaks as can be seen. And it will remain generally cloudy and mild overnight with perhaps some patchy rain/drizzle in western regions. Certainly a long way from any frost

 

Certainly like summer here, quite small amounts of cloud at differing heights and the Airport showing 19C the highest around it seems, I've peaked in my very sheltered back garden at 20.0 C, currently on 19.2 C

[Azazel]

Grim, grey and 12 degrees here.

Just thankful for the dry period incoming so we can start work on the garden. Am starting to worry about the return of zonality at the start of April.

[johnholmes]

6 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

Wow!! The GFSP doesn't want to go along with the notion it's spring! First a potent Nthly, then an Estly! It's coming..... Is it.... Isn't it..... Maybe..... Its a major cold bias, or its nailed it!!! 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

With a time scale much as over the past 4-5 months and we all know how many times it turned out close to what actually happened!

Edited March 20, 2019 by johnholmes

[Frosty.]

24 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

With a time scale much as over the past 4-5 months and we all know how many times it turned out close to what actually happened!

Hi john, much respect but could you edit out all those charts from your post to save page space, great charts though..ta

Edited March 20, 2019 by Frosty.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

36 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

With a time scale much as over the past 4-5 months and we all know how many times it turned out close to what actually happened!

Thing is John literally every cold snap that comes up seems to be at 10 day plus range, one of these days it will nail it, but knobody will be the slightest bit interested as it was out of range! We can talk about the exter 30 day forecast and come to a conclusion its a waste of time as well.... Let's face it how often was that proved correct throughout winter! 

Edited March 20, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Methuselah]

Continent warming up very nicely, come early April...No doubt the GFSP will indicate 5-days' lying snow, for the same time!

  

Edited March 20, 2019 by Ed Stone

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Pretty settled and mildish run to at least the 30th from the 12z! Temps perhaps increasing further has we enter April, high teens probable. But as you can see by now high pressure is declining, and its only a matter of time before more unsettled and cooler conditions spread South and East! 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

But as you can see the GFSP as completely different ideas, with cold air both sides of the uk, and even an EASTERLY feed setting up shop.... Boy does this model like to tease, bit like the song chaka demus... Tease me tease me baby! But you know what.... Me likes it!!!!!!!

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z operational for next week is a cracker, strong anticyclone centred slap bang over the uk before slowly drifting to the east..very pleasant spring weather which continues well into the following week.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just now, Frosty. said:

The Gfs 12z operational for next week is a cracker, strong anticyclone centred slap bang over the uk before slowly drifting to the east..very pleasant spring weather which continues well into the following week.

Not sure gfsp agrees with you Karl, but let's face it this model doesn't agree with anyone....... Its bloomin unique!!!!!

[knocker]

37 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Thing is John literally every cold snap that comes up seems to be at 10 day plus range, one of these days it will nail it, but knobody will be the slightest bit interested as it was out of range! We can talk about the exter 30 day forecast and come to a conclusion its a waste of time as well.... Let's face it how often was that proved correct throughout winter! 

Interesting analogy. I would have thought that the fact that longer range forecasts, prepared from all the available information by senior meteorologists, quite often fail. for the right reasons. would be overwhelming evidence that selected charts from the gsf in the 10-15 range, including selected perturbations, is, from a scientific perspective, not a good idea.

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Not sure gfsp agrees with you Karl, but let's face it this model doesn't agree with anyone....... Its bloomin unique!!!!!

It's very accurate for canada though apparently which is as much use to the uk as a chocolate fireguard!

Edited March 20, 2019 by Frosty.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

6 minutes ago, knocker said:

Interesting analogy. I would have thought that the fact that longer range forecasts, prepared from all the available information by senior meteorologists, quite often fail. for the right reasons. would be overwhelming evidence that selected charts from the gsf in the 10-15 range, including selected perturbations, is, from a scientific perspective, not a good idea.

Fair point, the same can be said of over analizing every single operational run. Not to mention gfs gives the largest amount of free data to the public! All we get from ecm is a 10 day chart and ensembles, we don't even get that with UKMO! As regards to posting individual perturbations, it's more a case of hoping that the model may just latch on to something. It also helps ramp up a bit of interest for the ones who love a cold snap, regardless of whether it comes off! Yes the met office have far more data at their disposal.... But that doesn't change the fact their long range forecasts leave a hell of a lot to be desired!!!!!! 

[Frosty.]

11 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

But that doesn't change the fact their long range forecasts leave a hell of a lot to be desired!!!!!! 

I fully agree with most of your post but they can't be blamed for getting it wrong in the 16 / 30 day range, they are going on what the vast amount of data in front of them is indicating..eg / i.e..GlosSea5, Mogreps, EC32 etc..etc..I was gutted by how things turned out but I think they do a great job, nobody can control the weather can they.

Edited March 20, 2019 by Frosty.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just now, Frosty. said:

I fully agree with most of your post but they can't be blamed for getting it wrong in the 16 / 30 day range, they are going on what the vast amount of data in front of them is indicating..i.e..GlosSea5, Mogreps, EC32 etc..etc..I was gutted by how things turned out but I think they do a great job, nobody can control the weather can they?

Yeh I understand what your saying Karl, my point was trying to clarify that for some even looking at a 10 day chart is pointless. Even more so if its from gfs! Sometimes one of these models will pick up on a significant cold snap at range!! More often than not, they will fail. But if its a bad idea posting 10 day charts for a cold snap, then just what is the point in even posting at all...... I can hear some thinking now.... Don't bother posting then!! Lol

 

[Frosty.]

I certainly won't stop posting charts in FI and cherry picking..unless I'm warned not to but I think any chart in any timeframe is relevant and fully on topic in this thread..

[knocker]

21 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I certainly won't stop posting charts in FI and cherry picking..unless I'm warned not to but I think any chart in any timeframe is relevant and fully on topic in this thread..

Nobody is suggesting otherwise. Personally I couldn't give a flick of Sidney's tail what charts you post as long as you are quite happy misleading fellow chionophiles