Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins

[knocker]

A showery scene

[Frosty.]

Just imagine if this had verified in winter..meltdown!!..end of march..MEH!!..maybe next time!!!

Edited March 17, 2019 by Frosty.

[Rascals Revenge]

Looks disappointing,  and very cloudy. It won't be like the feb spell.  Too much hype again.

Edited March 17, 2019 by Rascals Revenge

[MATTWOLVES 3]

12 minutes ago, Rascals Revenge said:

Looks disappointing,  and very cloudy. It won't be like the feb spell.  Too much hype again.

Not really sure over cloud amount, it will be subject to wheir the high sits on given days!! I would say 10 day's of decent useable weather coming up. Gfs certainly hinting at much more unsettled conditions towards months end! Not really unheard of though is it!? April showers and all that! 

[Sky Full]

ECM has high pressure meandering around the UK from the 21st March to the 27th March....

Trying to understand the whole picture, can anyone explain what other data I would need to look at to predict if this feature will bring mainly cloudy conditions or sun?  Is it the strength of the high that matters, or the source of high level air etc.?  

[Frosty.]

34 minutes ago, Rascals Revenge said:

Looks disappointing,  and very cloudy. It won't be like the feb spell.  Too much hype again.

The Gfs 6z operational doesn't look disappointing, indicates well above average temps week 2 and the longer term GEFS 6z mean / Ecm 00z ensemble mean are strongly anticyclonic!!..I've no idea how much cloud there will be although you seem very confident but I know it will feel warm in any strengthening late March sunshine!!..didn't you say the same in the build up to the late feb heatwave..meh, too much hype etc..etc?  

Ps..please add your location so we know what planet you are from! 

Edited March 17, 2019 by Frosty.

[Sky Full]

2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

It's interesting to note that although the week ahead looks good, especially further south, the following week looks better..nationwide!

You can keep this up for as long as you like, Frosty, as far as I am concerned!

[Seasonal Trim]

5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Gfs 6z operational doesn't look disappointing, indicates well above average temps week 2 and the longer term GEFS 6z mean / Ecm 00z ensemble mean are strongly anticyclonic!!..I've no idea how much cloud there will be but I know it will feel warm in any strengthening late March sunshine!!..didn't you say the same in the build up to the late feb heatwave..meh, too much hype etc..etc?  

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

9 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

ECM has high pressure meandering around the UK from the 21st March to the 27th March....

Trying to understand the whole picture, can anyone explain what other data I would need to look at to predict if this feature will bring mainly cloudy conditions or sun?  Is it the strength of the high that matters, or the source of high level air etc.?  

There are numerous reasons, for instance strong but vertically shallow high pressure systems moving from higher latitudes to lower latitudes in the northern hemisphere are associated with continental Arctic Air masses, the low, sharp temperature inversion can lead to stratus cloud, also known as anticyclonic gloom! It can also have Al lot to do with wheir the high is located, ie moisture and low cloud coming around the top of the high and getting trapped under the high. 

[Methuselah]

32 minutes ago, Rascals Revenge said:

Looks disappointing,  and very cloudy. It won't be like the feb spell.  Too much hype again.

I don't recall anyone being guilty of 'too much hype', re the February warm spell, Rascals...There were a few that kept going-on about how 15C was 'impossible', though.

I doubt that anyone's hyping late March, either...?

[damianslaw]

A change to much more settled weather is on the way, courtesy of the azores high ridging north thanks to a shift in the jetstream, the UK on the southern side, hence a milder drier sunnier feed - could be quite a bit of cloud though for western locations.

Longer term - I would not at all be surprised to see all that bottled up cold air over the arctic pouring into the mid-latitudes and indeed our way - all very normal service in April, northerlies and easterlies become far more likely in April and May. 

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

A change to much more settled weather is on the way, courtesy of the azores high ridging north thanks to a shift in the jetstream, the UK on the southern side, hence a milder drier sunnier feed - could be quite a bit of cloud though for western locations.

Longer term - I would not at all be surprised to see all that bottled up cold air over the arctic pouring into the mid-latitudes and indeed our way - all very normal service in April, northerlies and easterlies become far more likely in April and May. 

 

May!!!! The dreaded Easterly in May.... Loads of low cloud coming of the North Sea and spoiling all the sun for Eastern areas, as it takes for ever to burn back to the coast! 

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

May!!!! The dreaded Easterly in May.... Loads of low cloud coming of the North Sea and spoiling all the sun for Eastern areas, as it takes for ever to burn back to the coast! 

Cheer up, it MAY not happen this year

I don't think there could be more emphatic support for a prolonged mostly settled outlook from the ensembles than there is right now.

 

Edited March 17, 2019 by Frosty.

[Don]

4 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

You could be on to something Don. I feel we could be in trouble with water if we have a repeat of last year! Mike feels pretty confident of a very good summer going on GLOSEA5 predictions. I know seasonal forecasts can be very hit and miss.... But their are signs emerging! 

Indeed.  I know the prospects of another hot and dry summer excites many, but not me.  This won’t please certain people but I couldn’t care less if this coming summer is cool and unsettled (not what I’m expecting mind) However, if we’d have had a cold/snowy winter, I would feel different.

Edited March 17, 2019 by Don

[MATTWOLVES 3]

29 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Cheer up, it MAY not happen this year

I don't think there could be more emphatic support for a prolonged mostly settled outlook from the ensembles than there is right now.

 

Tbh though Easterly winds in summer can be great, low cloud burning back to the coast followed by very warm sunny conditions! I think that set up may have been evident in 95!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

10 minutes ago, Don said:

Indeed.  I know the prospects of another hot and dry summer excites many, but not me.  This won’t please certain people but I couldn’t care less if this coming summer is cool and unsettled (not what I’m expecting mind) However, if we’d have had a cold/snowy winter, I would feel different.

Warm sunny conditions will do me Don, not so much hot, as the nights end up becoming to oppressive! Much different across the continent as their heat is much dryer. 

Edited March 17, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Don]

Just now, Mattwolves said:

Tbh though Easterly winds in summer can be great, low cloud burning back to the coast followed by very warm sunny conditions! I think that set up may have been evident in 95!

I think you’re correct there and that pattern returned in time for winter 95/96!  An interesting year weather wise was 1995.  2018 was let down by the final months of the year.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just now, Don said:

I think you’re correct there and that pattern returned in time for winter 95/96!  An interesting year weather wise was 1995.  2018 was let down by the final months of the year.

Thanks for clarification on that Don, I was pretty sure that was the set up back in 95!

[Frosty.]

Just now, Mattwolves said:

Tbh though Easterly winds in summer can be great, low cloud burning back to the coast followed by very warm sunny conditions! I think that set up may have been evident in 95!

Oh I agree..August 1995 was sensational!..if anything, there's more chance of a long draw warm southerly / southeasterly than a cool cloudy easterly / northeasterly during week 2 of this upcoming nicer spell.

[Don]

12 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Warm sunny conditions will do me Don, not so much hot, as the nights end up becoming to oppressive! Much different across the continent as their heat is much dryer. 

That’s why I’m not keen on hot summers in the UK with the high humidity making for difficult sleeping.  However, last summer was better in this respect as although it was hot, it wasn’t too humid.  After a long period of warm weather, I would like to see a cooler season now.  That said, I would take another hot summer any day, if it was to mean winter 2019/20 was going to be freezing!

Edited March 17, 2019 by Don

[Methuselah]

50 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

May!!!! The dreaded Easterly in May.... Loads of low cloud coming of the North Sea and spoiling all the sun for Eastern areas, as it takes for ever to burn back to the coast! 

Usually that's true, Matt; but, this year, we have warmer than average SSTs (I believe?)...In 1976, even the April easterlies were sunny, due to a relatively warm sea...Don't give up hope!?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Not the most positive of starts from the para up to day 6!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Usually that's true, Matt; but, this year, we have warmer than average SSTs (I believe?)...In 1976, even the April easterlies were sunny, due to a relatively warm sea...Don't give up hope!?

Oh most definitely Ed, I know Easterlys during summer can be a godsend. 

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Not the most positive of starts from the para up to day 6!

Unless you like cold

[knocker]

Relatively dry and becoming quite warm over the coming week particularity in the east with some cloud and patchy rain initially in the west. But becoming quite windy and wet in the north west on Thursday as a another frontal wave passes to the north west of Scotland. Something we have experienced quite a lot of lately and at the same time another is developing to the south west and this deepens and tracks quickly north east to bring rain and quite strong winds again to the north on saturday and shifts the high cell that has briefly materialized over the UK. Only to set in motion the next to arrive from the south west.

Which pressure from the west realigns to the east initiating some warm and dry weather over the UK

Edited March 17, 2019 by knocker