Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins

[knocker]

Outlook - with the upper trough moving away to the east the subtropical high will slowly become more influential, albeit not without some hiccups, but still tending towards a N/S split

The NH 500mb profile for midnight and the Atlantic surface analysis along with the 0500 UK chart

As can be seen a much cooler day in the brisk NW wind as yesterday's low tracks into Scandinavia. The frequent wintry showers, generally concentrated in western areas, will continue for much of the day but tending to die out later, and will include hail, snow and perhaps thunder in the mix. A cooler day than of late

The showers die out leaving a clear night as the high attempts to ridge NE and thus a widespread frost by morning, but with still a lot of energy in the Atlantic a trailing occlusion associated with a low way north of Iceland does edge east bringing cloud and patchy train yo western regions by morning.

A bit of a W/E split om Monday with the latter remaining dry with sunny intervals but some heavy showers in western regions and more prolonged patchy rain in the NW as further fronts push east associated with another wave that has tracked NE into the Denmark Straits  temps warming up a tad

Over Monday night and through Tuesday pressure from the energy to the west does force weakening fronts across the country so generally dry and cloudy nut some patchy rain in the north west. Temps now a little above average

Over Tuesday night and through Wednesday fronts struggle south east down the country but we are in a familiar scenario here with waves forming on the trailing front to the west and tracking north east along the eastern flank of the intense upper trough to the NW, and thus taking the front back north again. Cloudy with sunny intervals in the south but perhaps some patchy rain in the north Temps now significantly above average

And this remains the situation on Thursday with fronts trailing along the boundary between the very cold trough and the ridge with most of the UK in the latter with temps way above average

Edited March 17, 2019 by knocker

[Frosty.]

It's looking good guys, the week ahead is a vast improvement, becoming largely settled and much calmer across most of the uk with increasingly pleasant surface conditions under an ever strengthening late March sun as it gets that bit higher in the sky every day but nights are still long enough to become chilly where skies clear bringing a risk of slight frosts and patchy mist / fog..although the high(s) are pushed and pulled this way and that the extended outlook also looks generally settled..following all the very windy and wet weather with localised flooding..this is mother nature's way of balancing things out..Enjoy!..cheers gang

Edited March 17, 2019 by Frosty.

[knocker]

To continue with the ecm briefly. Another wave forms on the front away to the south west and deepens as it tracks north east to be south south east of Iceland by midday Friday. This will bring strong winds and rain the the north of the country before the front clears into Scandinavia. But over the weekend a lobe of the vortex drops into the NW Atlantic promoting another surge of the subtropical high in mid Atlantic albeit fronts still sneak around the surface ridge. Temps around average for the weekend

[Frosty.]

For your consideration, the longer term GEFS 00z mean!!..looks good to me

[Frosty.]

And.... Drumroll....  a few snapshots from the Ecm 00z ensemble mean..much better weather on the way!

[492]

Meteociel - Cartes du modèle numérique GFS pour l'Hémisphère Nord

GFS continues to model very low 1000-500 thickness values over Central and southern Greenland (below 474) where the surface temperature was -54 C on Saturday. The extremely low thickness values are set to position themselves over southern Greenland over the next few days and  closer to the UK than I have seen for many years. Of course it will not have much effect in the UK but demonstrates geographically just how close the UK is to the Greenland Icecap and how desperately cold it is not that far away.

[Frosty.]

For your consideration...the Gfs 6z operational at various stages of the run and to me it's looking rather nice on the whole, sure there's a few bumps in the road along the way but in a nutshell what it shows is a predominantly very pleasant anticyclonic spring spell which becomes even warmer for a time during low res with air sourced from way south!

 

Edited March 17, 2019 by Frosty.

[alexisj9]

15 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

The point you make is fair, the point you miss is the epic winter that most on here and all the so called best meteorologists predicted for us! The winters you mention, ie 09/10 was 2 a penny back in the 80s! The entire winter was milder than normal and drier than normal! The Scottish ski resorts have had a torrid time till very recently! Nthly winds for instance have become as extinct as dinasaurs! 

Long range forecasts are never set in stone, I think it's very brave of people to try, normally based on drivers, which on there own, will produce, but other drivers do exist, and can change things. It was never a set in stone forecast, and should never have been read as such. The SSW did happen, and did have it's effects, just not for us. This time we got the high, it's just how the penny dropped.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

Long range forecasts are never set in stone, I think it's very brave of people to try, normally based on drivers, which on there own, will produce, but other drivers do exist, and can change things. It was never a set in stone forecast, and should never have been read as such. The SSW did happen, and did have it's effects, just not for us. This time we got the high, it's just how the penny dropped.

Thanks alexis good point well. Made, I'm pretty sure it was the movement of the azores high that scuppered our chances when the cold and snow was hitting Central Europe! And I think the energy coming out of the states ruined our chances with regards to the failed Easterly. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Thanks Karl for bringing the 6z summary out, was just gonna post it with a load of charts, so know need now. Yeh 6z after a cooler weekend blip next week looks like warming up again the following week, the fine settled Conditions most likely seeing the month out.

[Don]

5 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Thanks Karl for bringing the 6z summary out, was just gonna post it with a load of charts, so know need now. Yeh 6z after a cooler weekend blip next week looks like warming up again the following week, the fine settled Conditions most likely seeing the month out.

The predominantly warmer than average conditions continue.  Looking like another scorching year, even at this early stage......

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just now, Don said:

The predominantly warmer than average conditions continue.  Looking like another scorching year, even at this early stage......

You could be on to something Don. I feel we could be in trouble with water if we have a repeat of last year! Mike feels pretty confident of a very good summer going on GLOSEA5 predictions. I know seasonal forecasts can be very hit and miss.... But their are signs emerging! 

[feb1991blizzard]

35 minutes ago, 492 said:

Meteociel - Cartes du modèle numérique GFS pour l'Hémisphère Nord

GFS continues to model very low 1000-500 thickness values over Central and southern Greenland (below 474) where the surface temperature was -54 C on Saturday. The extremely low thickness values are set to position themselves over southern Greenland over the next few days and  closer to the UK than I have seen for many years. Of course it will not have much effect in the UK but demonstrates geographically just how close the UK is to the Greenland Icecap and how desperately cold it is not that far away.

Yes, i will have an orange please! -  P4 shows how you could still get potent (if brief) cold in the UK.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The biggest annoyance to me is how we can never get heights to build over Greenland during winter, just send all that Atlantic energy south putting us on the cold side of the jet! And as soon as we have some signs of heights building over scandy, we nearly always have to much energy in the northern arm which just seems to erode the block to our NE! Perhaps next year will be the year.... The atlantic overall this winter seems to have been quite subdued, perhaps low solar output! Who knows, so I'm quite surprised myself how we have ended up with quite a lame winter! SW locations obviously got a bit of excitement out of it though. With ever decreasing solar output though, perhaps this will bring us the winter quite a few of us crave during the next several years!! But as you all know all the drivers can be set up for perfection and just one little misplaced piece of the juggle can send it all Pete tong! Sooner or later though it's just going to have to come off!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

48 minutes ago, 492 said:

Meteociel - Cartes du modèle numérique GFS pour l'Hémisphère Nord

GFS continues to model very low 1000-500 thickness values over Central and southern Greenland (below 474) where the surface temperature was -54 C on Saturday. The extremely low thickness values are set to position themselves over southern Greenland over the next few days and  closer to the UK than I have seen for many years. Of course it will not have much effect in the UK but demonstrates geographically just how close the UK is to the Greenland Icecap and how desperately cold it is not that far away.

Its a well made point. When you look at all that cold on tap to the NW, and then all the heat on tap to our south, and you take in to consideration that the uk is just has close to the arctic regions as it is to the more tropical climates!! You would think we would be served much more cold prospects during the winter months! 

[alexisj9]

3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Its a well made point. When you look at all that cold on tap to the NW, and then all the heat on tap to our south, and you take in to consideration that the uk is just has close to the arctic regions as it is to the more tropical climates!! You would think we would be served much more cold prospects during the winter months! 

It's all down to the warm sea current that is to our west, but to the east of Greenland. It seems to make a very big difference.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

4 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

It's all down to the warm sea current that is to our west, but to the east of Greenland. It seems to make a very big difference.

Are the big bad gulf stream!! Not gonna go in to a climate debate on here, but that warm current is likely to start misbehaving with extra amounts of arctic sea ice being dumped in it continuously!! Perhaps one day this could become a serious discussion, as it would bring the potential of very severe winters to the NW hemisphere! But I will leave it at that. In the meantime I have a feeling that the year ahead is gonna end up with well above average temps quite large scale overall! The coming summer is sure to bring some very high temps at some point! It's scripted, I've seen it in my dreams!!

[Frosty.]

For your consideration..the Gefs 6z mean..surely worth a Boom for those who like it warm and predominantly settled?

[Frosty.]

It's interesting to note that although the week ahead looks good, especially further south, the following week looks better..nationwide!

[Methuselah]

18 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It's interesting to note that although the week ahead looks good, especially further south, the following week looks better..nationwide!

Things are indeed looking good, Karl; however, Those Who Cannot Be Named are now suggesting an unsettled start to April...

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Gfsp perhaps mirroring exters thoughts as we approach April!! Cooler/colder from the NW, potentially more unsettled! 

 

Edit.... Long way off though, a lot can change! 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Things are indeed looking good, Karl; however, Those Who Cannot Be Named are now suggesting an unsettled start to April...

Lol Ed, I just posted about things potentially becoming more unsettled in April, but I've been named!!!

[Frosty.]

Lol I just want to see the settled weather arrive before I start thinking about breakdowns, the next two weeks look predominantly settled for most but beyond that confidence falls away quickly..just enjoy the fine spell!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Lol I just want to see the settled weather arrive before I start thinking about breakdowns, the next two weeks look predominantly settled for most but beyond that confidence falls away quickly..just enjoy the fine spell!

Yeh but you should know Karl, that's what we do in the uk, whether it's cold or hot, we constantly look for the breakdown.... Well some do anyway!!!

[Mapantz]

Let's cut the political posts out, please?!

Thanks.