Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins

[Methuselah]

I've just been through the 06Z...and I must say that hunting for snow looks like a game of pin the tail on the paramecium!

Edit: once the weekend is done, I mean.

Edited March 14, 2019 by Ed Stone

[MATTWOLVES 3]

7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Wow you're more hard-core than me..I'm impressed

To me, it's still looking better next week though perhaps not to the same extent as the last few days have indicated. I believe Mattwolves is of the same opinion.

Yep frosty, gfs tends to weaken the settled weather in stages, gfsp still seems to be trying desperately hard to set up some kind of heights to our NE, And ECM seems to be bringing us a settled start before turning colder and less settled towards the end! Like I have previously stated, I'm all for warm sunny  conditions during summer, nothing more depressing than cool wet muck in june/July. But those pinning their hopes on unseasonably warm sunny conditions at this stage of the year are gonna end up disappointed! I think the spell in febuary perhaps lulled a good many in to a false sense of security! 

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I've just been through the 06Z...and I must say that hunting for snow looks like a game of pin the tail on the paramecium!

I must say I was surprised to see a bit of snow at times on the 6z..perhaps there are a few more twists to come before it's scientifically impossible to get one of these beautiful things!

[Frosty.]

Just flicking through the GEFS 6z we certainly flirt with some cold shots from the arctic and even from the west surprisingly so there is still some potential interest for the few coldies left standing following the debacle of the last three months!

Edited March 14, 2019 by Frosty.

[492]

GFS is modeling  extreme cold to out NW over next few days  The temperature over Central Greenland recording -51 C at midnight and -39 C on the Greenland east coast. The cold modelled to be locked into the Arctic and intensifying during our current highly mobile spell. It is somewhat unusual to see such perilous cold so close to the UK although a couple of thousand miles away I suppose is not that close. Svalbald too has been between -15 C and - 20 C over the last couple of weeks which must be increasing the ice build up around its shores.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

58 minutes ago, 492 said:

GFS is modeling  extreme cold to out NW over next few days  The temperature over Central Greenland recording -51 C at midnight and -39 C on the Greenland east coast. The cold modelled to be locked into the Arctic and intensifying during our current highly mobile spell. It is somewhat unusual to see such perilous cold so close to the UK although a couple of thousand miles away I suppose is not that close. Svalbald too has been between -15 C and - 20 C over the last couple of weeks which must be increasing the ice build up around its shores.

Good points, I've to noticed on some recent runs of - 40c towards southern Greenland, insanely cold! Now if we  could just get heights to set up shop in the right place.... Things would get very interesting. 

Edited March 14, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z operational shows a snowy day across much of scotland on saturday..definitely wintry for some at least!!!

[knocker]

At T132 the gfs this evening forms a new low at the base of the vortex/trough in the baroclinic zone off the eastern seaboard and tracks it swiftly north east on very powerful upper winds which suppresses the amplification of the subtropical high

Edited March 14, 2019 by knocker

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Yet again gfsp going down this cold route, look at some of the uppers to our E/NE. Notice heights building over Greenland as well, is it on to something!! 

[Frosty.]

Even a snow risk further south on sunday!!!!!

[Frosty.]

Certainly following a few attempts in high res the Gfs 12z operational becomes anticyclonic once it hits low res..really gets a firm foothold during late march.

Edited March 14, 2019 by Frosty.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Deep in fi, gfsp says GAME ON!!!!!! Bring it!!! Exciting gfsp again even though its far out! But you just never know! 

[knocker]

It's been a foul day down here as the cold front stalled but by early evening it's on the way back north east as  the wave that has formed on does likewise with the triple point being off the north east coast by 0600. Thus another belt of rain tracking north east this evening and overnight with showers developing behind the cold front but more persistent rain continuing over Scotland. And the wind which has abated a tad will pick up again with perhaps more coastal gales.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean indicates an improving picture next week as high pressure builds in, especially across southern uk so feeling very pleasant in the strengthening mid / late March sunshine and light winds. The extended outlook also suggests plenty of useable weather..certainly nothing like as unsettled as currently, indeed there is a chance of something like we had in late Feb!

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z becomes very pleasant for a time next week under high pressure and warmer temperatures but then goes rather off-piste towards the end..

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Ecm perhaps not as generous as the gfs 12z, it does bring some warm conditions later next week, before turning colder next weekend! And right at the end of the run, cooler conditions look like invading again from the west!  Points of interest, end of next week's temps could approach high teens! Then they take a big drop on Saturday.... Suntan cream followed by fur coat!

 

 

Edit. Me and frosty must be telepathic as we posted the same charts at the same Time

Edited March 14, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Edit. Me and frosty must be telepathic as we posted the same charts at the same Time

indeed, spooky isn't it

Anyway, looking much better..at least for a time next week is what the models are showing.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

indeed, spooky isn't it

Anyway, looking much better..at least for a time next week is what the models are showing.

Great minds think alike lol, what a bizzare ecm frosty, pushing 20c one day, then back down to single figures the next. Longer term I feel its perhaps going down the cooler less settled route! But it's all in fi... So you never know for sure.

[Summer Sun]

The calm after the storms

 

[Frosty.]

22 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The calm after the storms

I'm still waiting for the thunder!!!

Anyway, yes it's looking a lot calmer and more pleasant for many of us next week compared to this week.

Edited March 14, 2019 by Frosty.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

28 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I'm still waiting for the thunder!!!

Anyway, yes it's looking a lot calmer and more pleasant for many of us next week compared to this week.

Great charts Frosty! I'm probably in the minority though wanting settled

[Frosty.]

For sure these are exciting wintry charts from the 18z for the north this weekend!..let it snow 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just look at the difference with the high pressure location from gfs and gfsp, these two models on a different planet! 

Edited March 14, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Just look at the difference with the high pressure location from gfs and gfsp, these two models on a different planet! 

Ones in a parallel universe for sure

[MATTWOLVES 3]

16 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Ones in a parallel universe for sure

Its trying so hard to get us cold frosty, look to the west and look to the east! There seems to be plenty of cold air on tap, even at this late stage.