Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its a crap Easterly though.

Yeh Feb it looks weak!I'm more interested in the fact its trying to build heights in the right places though! And the fact its at complete loggerheads with the old gfs

[feb1991blizzard]

Lets hope we can roll a 6.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Lets hope we can roll a 6.

Could be lucky Feb, that's pretty much bang on to the operational run last night! 

[cheeky_monkey]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Lets hope we can roll a 6.

how long do you guys keeping looking out for these charts? does anyone really enjoy a few flurries on a raw day at the end of March??

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

how long do you guys keeping looking out for these charts? does anyone really enjoy a few flurries on a raw day at the end of March??

You should know cheeky monkey that it's not out the question to get significant snowfall in March, even April, and bare in mind we have just endured one of the worst winters for cold and snow for a long time. Its easy for you to say that when your subject to 6 months of snow per year. 

[cheeky_monkey]

1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

You should know cheeky monkey that it's not out the question to get significant snowfall in March, even April, and bare in mind we have just endured one of the worst winters for cold and snow for a long time. Its easy for you to say that when your subject to 6 months of snow per year. 

sure can but wont hang around too long..dont forget i lived most of my life in the UK ..snow at the back end of March or into April is like slap in the face after a poor winter.

[SLEETY]

Considering how rubbish this winter has been for snow, despite most of the long range forecasters here and on other sites saying this would  be a cold winter with blocking to the North , and where are these people to explain what went wrong I would take any snow in March and April  even if it rapidly melts at this time of year, away from high ground. 

[knocker]

Outlook - Remaining very unsettled for the next two or three days but by Monday the movement of the upper trough east and amplification of the subtropical high to the south west heralds a more settled and drier period for most. The north west perhaps the exception

The 500mb and surface analysis for midnight and the surface chart for 0500

The rain from the current frontal system is mostly still effecting England and Wales at the moment and this will clear to the east this morning leaving squally showers in it;s wake, particularity along NW/W coastal areas. But the cold front never really clears the south coast. so cloud and patchy rain will persist in the south west/ A relatively warm day with temps a tad above average but the gusty wind negates this somewhat, albeit it abates through the day

Meanwhile another wave has formed on the aforementioned front and tracks north east to be Northern Ireland by midnight tonight This results in the front returning as a warm front followed by another which brings more rain, heavy in western areas once again, and strengthening winds which could reach gale fore in exposed areas in the west. This will track north east effecting most areas before clearing by morning.

The cold front will again clear as far as the Channel leaving the country in a breezy north westerly on Friday with frequent showers, particularly in the north, but cloud and patchy rain will hang around in the south west. Colder air has ingressed behind this system. But as can be seen yet another wave is forming on the front away to the south west.

This wave deepens and takes a more north easterly track and by midday Saturday is over the north of England 986mb. The precise track of this is quite important as there could well be snow down to low levels along the northern flank along with some quite strong winds

Over Saturday night and through Sunday the low continues to deepen and track into south Sweden so sunshine and showers are the order of the days and the winds will be much lighter,

By Monday the transition mentioned earlier is underway with the trough away to the east and the subtropical high making it's move in the south west so a relatively quiet day with cloud and some rain in the for north west later.

[knocker]

To continue briefly with the gfs. The problem, as ever, is the high trying to gain a substantial foot hold whilst a lot of energy continues to to exit the eastern seaboard across the Atlantic and it's only partially successful albeit it has put a halt to the conveyor belt of lows

.

 

Edited March 14, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

The ecm is pretty much along the same lines as the gfs although it does go off piste at the end of the run with another intense trough over North East North America and the twin energy flows promoting another low from the eastern seaboard.

[knocker]

The in topic this week is Fibonacci Spirals brought about by the current storm in the States' H/t Weatherbell for this

On this forecasted Infrared Satellite imagery product, check out not just one, but two distinct Fibonacci spirals! Fibonacci spirals are commonly found in meteorology, and their representation on satellite imagery depict that the cyclone is both mature and powerful.

Don't ask!

 

[Nick F]

I wonder if Met Office can be bothered with naming Saturday's low Hannah, looks like it could bring some disruptive snow across Scotland, gales to the south, 00z ECMWF deeper with the low, 978mb off NE England 6pm Sat as opposed to circa 985mb on GFS.

ECMWF

GFS

Looks like finally calming down next week, as the Azores high extends across the south from mid-week, but the operational and ensemble guidance seems to be moving away form it being another protracted spell of high pressure, such as has featured at times over the last 3 months, with a return to unsettled conditions resuming the following weekend, but could it be a brief unsettled return before ridging returns?

Edited March 14, 2019 by Nick F

[johnholmes]

16 minutes ago, Nick F said:

I wonder if Met Office can be bothered with naming Saturday's low Hannah, looks like it could bring some disruptive snow across Scotland, gales to the south, 00z ECMWF deeper with the low, 978mb off NE England 6pm Sat as opposed to circa 985mb on GFS.

ECMWF

GFS

Looks like finally calming down next week, as the Azores high extends across the south from mid-week, but the operational and ensemble guidance seems to be moving away form it being another protracted spell of high pressure spells, such as has features at times over the last 3 months, with a return to unsettled conditions resuming the following weekend, but could it be a brief unsettled return before ridging returns?

UK  Met Fax deepens it considerably as it crosses the Borders area into the N Sea.

[Azazel]

I really hope it does calm down next week - I struggle to remember a period quite as windy as this one. Maybe Winter 14?

[knocker]

The EPS is still looking to rebuild the ridge in the ext period, and last night's NOAA to some extent is not adverse to this,but it doesn't have the look of permanency about it.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

A more mixed run from the 6z, becoming settled, then a little more unsettled even some colder shots in the mix, then it finishes with warmer temps and high pressure literally building over us, all deep in fi though, but overall not as encouraging a previous runs. 

[mb018538]

This spoiler low approaching from the west looks like preventing a clean build of high pressure.

Doesn't look like a strong anticyclone such as the very warm spell at the end of February anyway...flow still from the west,



By D12, all sorts of options available:



By contrast - if you want to see signs of a strong high pressure, something like this needs to appear:

Edited March 14, 2019 by mb018538

[Frosty.]

16 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

A more mixed run from the 6z, becoming settled, then a little more unsettled even some colder shots in the mix, then it finishes with warmer temps and high pressure literally building over us, all deep in fi though, but overall not as encouraging a previous runs. 

Great summary of the 6z operational, I was about to post something similar but decided not to as you covered all bases. 

[knocker]

Current Sat image sums it up. A foul moaning down here

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Great summary of the 6z operational, I was about to post something similar but decided not to as you covered all bases. 

Was just gonna say frosty the GFSP seems to want to bring in a more N/NEtly at the end of the run! With temps really suppressed for end of march, don't really know what to make of this set up, perhaps a timely reminder that we ain't in to spring properly perhaps!

[knocker]

The 06 also has Saturday's low deepening as in crosses the UK into the North sea

Edited March 14, 2019 by knocker

[feb1991blizzard]

12 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

how long do you guys keeping looking out for these charts? does anyone really enjoy a few flurries on a raw day at the end of March??

Not always a few flurries though, you can still get big dumpings in April although highly unlikely, i won't actually give up until its scientifically impossible.

Anyway - number 11 this time for me.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not always a few flurries though, you can still get big dumpings in April although highly unlikely, i won't actually give up until its scientifically impossible.

Anyway - number 11 this time for me.

Love it, scientifically possible!! Nows that's what I call hardcore! It's possible Feb, it looks like the much warmer conditions have downgraded! 

[Frosty.]

22 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

 i won't actually give up until its scientifically impossible

Wow you're more hard-core than me..I'm impressed

To me, it's still looking better next week though perhaps not to the same extent as the last few days have indicated. I believe Mattwolves is of the same opinion.

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Wow you're more hard-core than me..I'm impressed

To me, it's still looking better next week though perhaps not to the same extent as the last few days have indicated. I believe Mattwolves is of the same opinion.

Thing is its a no brainer for me anyway, as i could do with an unsettled late April and may so its not like i am looking for heat anyway, certainly not dry heat.