Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

 Share

Recommended Posts

Kentspur Accomplished

Kentspur

Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
Posted
3 hours ago, knocker said:

The ecm is not dissimilar to the gfs T144 > 192 with temps varying around the average tending a tad above.

t144.thumb.png.65f8e08d94edb077c2c7673db031b1b7.pngt168.thumb.png.365cb877138a8fffc74af67c7b84fda7.pngt192.thumb.png.7a1c3f925c99efd6db7e8ea03cd8c449.png

Blooming typical when I'm off to Cape Verde islands for some sun in a weeks time looks like showers moving into that area while the UK dries up

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

The Gfs 6z operational is looking increasingly pleasant next week across much of the uk with high pressure replacing this week's conveyor belt of vigorous atlantic depressions..looking good at the spring equinox!

06_201_uk2mtmp.png

06_201_mslp500.png

06_225_mslp500.png

06_276_mslp500.png

06_300_mslp500.png

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

So the 06Z offers this sort of thing: image.thumb.png.c6d3328700782fda30e491c8f97769d6.png

It won't materialise that way, of course, but things clearly have the potential for becoming either very warm or very cold...Please, God, let it be the former!

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted (edited)

I'm quite liking the ext EPS trend this morning with the withdrawal of the upper trough in the NW facilitating high pressure ridging/. A continued development from what John was saying earlier

10-15.thumb.png.0a25bb36917cf5140c7b4e22083b13ce.png8-13.thumb.png.a2be0658f1154ffcea6eea2525ec29c7.png34740401_8-13t.thumb.png.16e151bd92100aaf974cd732565455ce.png

Edited by knocker
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Gray-Wolf Accomplished

Gray-Wolf

Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
Posted
33 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

So the 06Z offers this sort of thing: image.thumb.png.c6d3328700782fda30e491c8f97769d6.png

It won't materialise that way, of course, but things clearly have the potential for becoming either very warm or very cold...Please, God, let it be the former!

I wondered if you'd spotted those temps over N.Africa Pete!

With the HP's in the Mix hows about a nice 'feed' from that direction come months end?

It would be weird if March did what Feb did and stick an anom , as big as the average temp for the time of year, on top of our daily maxes?

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Looking at the GEFS 6z mean..there are better times ahead from next week..more spring-like and pleasant with the jet further north and high pressure replacing all this wild wet weather..bring it!!

21_150_500mb.png

21_174_500mb.png

21_198_500mb.png

21_204_2mtmpmax.png

21_222_500mb.png

21_294_500mb.png

21_318_500mb.png

21_342_500mb.png

21_378_500mb.png

the-great-gatsby-leo-dicaprio.jpg

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

UKMO extended shows a north-south split at t168 with high pressure building up from mainland Europe the south becomes more settled and warmer.

Further north low pressure is still close by which will keep the risk of some rain or showers and still windy though nowhere near as bad as it is currently

ukm2.2019032000_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.bbf2008cbcfb54d4814fa81a6166d69b.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I wondered if you'd spotted those temps over N.Africa Pete!

With the HP's in the Mix hows about a nice 'feed' from that direction come months end?

It would be weird if March did what Feb did and stick an anom , as big as the average temp for the time of year, on top of our daily maxes?

I have indeed, Ian...I really wouldn't mind some of that!:oldgood:

Edited by Ed Stone
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019031300_288.

D12 Clusters are roughly 1/3 in favour of a continuation of the westerly flow, though not as bad as present....or 2/3 showing some form of high pressure block forming. Too early to say which one will prevail yet.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean shows an improving picture next week with increasing azores high ridging influence and indeed a high pressure cell developing to the south..so, looking much better for many in the uk next week..now let's sort BREXIT out!!!!!

EDM1-144.GIF

EDM1-168.GIF

EDM1-192.GIF

EDM1-216.GIF

EDM1-240.GIF

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted
30 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019031300_288.

D12 Clusters are roughly 1/3 in favour of a continuation of the westerly flow, though not as bad as present....or 2/3 showing some form of high pressure block forming. Too early to say which one will prevail yet.

yes not a clear-cut way forward but the more settled and warmer scenarios continue to edge it. Unless a little easterly can undercut?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Some interesting variations on the longer term GEFS 6z..well at least I think so!!

2_318_2mtmpmax.png

2_318_850tmp.png

13_372_850tmp.png

13_372_2mtmpmax.png

18_372_850tmp.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites
knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted

PPVA89.thumb.gif.821ee73fb7909d4e54fb40b917a5d7e2.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.622a27394b10d0c0c00b7ac8f7939dfa.gifgeo.thumb.JPG.62bc595f45b6704aa45ea4fafe4fbf41.JPG

The showers that abound in many areas at the moment will quickly die out this evening but cloud and rain from the next frontal system will effect N. Ireland and western Scotland by 1800. The rain will then spread south east during this evening and overnight over all of England and Wales and again quite heavy in western regions. It will be followed in the north by frequent squally showers as the wind will also pick up through the evening and overnight and possibly reach gale force in western coastal areas

r18.thumb.png.460462d417a5d22c87a0e59f48601d27.pngr21.thumb.png.d8651bc1fd76ba843aa24208caa13053.pngr00.thumb.png.cbdca1dcbee8e1cabfa6e6b2f769dbee.pngr03.thumb.png.33e9a9fe5e64b92c358461d9eddcdc16.pngr08.thumb.png.02ef57d05b715f66700363fc079c0248.pngg21.thumb.png.98ccc7611e5fd397a451bdfbdbea7aa6.pngg00.thumb.png.121d645762f649b36ffe03e204c8818c.pngg03.thumb.png.b6b14fed2545581ff9face260c8ea82a.pngg08.thumb.png.07a0244eb3c9b0f1fea3f9eb9e8e43be.png

 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

The Gfs 12z operational turns into a very decent run beyond this week with lots of high pressure / strong ridging and pleasantly warm temperatures.

12_168_mslp500.png

12_192_mslp500.png

12_192_uk2mtmp.png

12_195_ukthickness850.png

12_216_mslp500.png

12_216_uk2mtmp.png

12_216_precipratec.png

12_219_ukthickness850.png

12_240_uk2mtmp.png

12_240_mslp850.png

12_240_ukthickness850.png

12_264_mslp850.png

12_288_uk2mtmp.png

12_300_mslp500.png

12_360_mslp500.png

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

I would like to see some all-time highs and 75%+ RHs reached...What with the upcoming Gammonball Run due to finish on the 29th!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I would like to see some all-time highs and 75%+ RHs reached...What with the upcoming Gammonball Run due to finish on the 29th!

I would like to see a much nicer week than this week..which looks certain now, at least for the southern half of the uk..today has been vile with severe gales..looks like considerably calmer weather is on the way.

BRAND_SMILEY_MAIN.jpg

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

Absolutely bizzare set of gfs operational runs, high pressure literally dominating the uk and most of Europe for that matter, with the cold seeming to be locked away to our north and NW, for god sake can someone please pop the Cork on that air!! If these charts are gonna stick with these patterns throughout the next several months, we are gonna end up with some serious water shortages! 

 

 

It goes on and on and on!! I know a lot of folks will enjoy this type of weather, but my god it makes forecasting so predictable and boring in the end! 

gfs-0-168.png

gfs-0-192.png

gfs-0-216.png

gfs-0-240.png

gfs-0-264.png

gfs-0-168.png

gfs-0-192.png

gfs-0-216.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
40 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

It goes on and on and on!! I know a lot of folks will enjoy this type of weather, but my god it makes forecasting so predictable and boring in the end! 

If you don't like what the charts are showing why did you post so many of them?..I've already posted them earlier!:oldsmile:

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
12 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

If you don't like what the charts are showing why did you post so many of them?..I've already posted them earlier!:oldsmile:

To show to anybody who hadn't viewed them that the pattern was stuck in a rut! Is nobody else allowed to post them or something!! 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

To show to anybody who hadn't viewed them that the pattern was stuck in a rut! Is nobody else allowed to post them or something!! 

Sorry:oldsmile:

Edited by Frosty.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
Just now, Frosty. said:

Who rattled your cage?..I thought you were a good poster..guess I was wrong.

Well that's a bit rude frosty, you pulled me up on posting so many charts, and the only reason I did it was to show that the pattern didn't seem to be changing! And tbh frosty I hadn't even noticed you had already posted them as I haven't been online much today! Know offence intended! 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Well that's a bit rude frosty, you pulled me up on posting so many charts, and the only reason I did it was to show that the pattern didn't seem to be changing! And tbh frosty I hadn't even noticed you had already posted them as I haven't been online much today! Know offence intended! 

I'm autistic and easily offended..mood issues and all that..apologies for my earlier reply.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...