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Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight and the 0300 WV image

gfs_z500_vort_natl_1.thumb.png.8fb7ab62db778a28ad3fba9032258a2d.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.d069d5ebc61e57edd360be153e46f052.gifwv.thumb.JPG.525bf80b5ca11e56fbd7ed0ac8d3a336.JPG

As can be seen storm Gareth is currently still south of Iceland but through today and tonight it will start to track south east just north of Scotland on it's way to the North Sea which will bring some very inclement weather to the north and then further south and east as it travels. At the moment rain from the cold front is across north Wales > NE coast and this will continue to track south east during the day, clearing the south east coast by around 1500, The squally winds are in the quadrant south of the front and a showery regime behind.

But by the same time Gareth is approaching to the NW of Scotland and by 1800 is 962mb quite close to the Hebrides and heavy rain and strong winds have arrived in the north

p09.thumb.png.6a012a5c038cb2db10fe24284679fc77.pngp12.thumb.png.3b5a82960764c1f2065c20edae2a0b7c.pngp15.thumb.png.10021220609ff9bc770f2364315bacf5.pngp18.thumb.png.aeba62b2af5ef001550f34f3c63abd77.pngg15.thumb.png.798fd766cb712ca219f55986aaefa0a3.pngg18.thumb.png.ca12bb805cb213df698d8da29ce6e62c.png

Thus sets the scene for a very wet and stormy evening/night with severe gales in he north west with the strong winds moving south and east as Gareth continues to track into the North Sea. The continuous rain will give way to frequent wintry showers of just about everything, rain, snow, hail and thunder.

PPVE89.thumb.gif.a503863489c815960cedf76401743369.gifr22.thumb.png.94cfd586194a94d4f9641d43d5f3aaca.pngr03.thumb.png.010ca48a8c9e73e114fcbccce2d11c7d.png

gw22.thumb.png.8c3d338704ad96adfc242848310d2510.pnggw02.thumb.png.28501625bb76a0585d6a4efcfc05646e.pnggw06.thumb.png.c045030bdecdabeea96eb5f27131bb61.png

The squally showers will continue through Wednesday in the still very strong winds but will become less frequent as the wind starts to abate early in the afternoon

PPVG89.thumb.gif.d3037dff13fe44dc71b754bde9ea83fe.gifw09.thumb.png.aaadab8b08387ac0c2fa369ab645880f.pngw13.thumb.png.b286a4df5693d40c69c36fab037300e1.png

Meanwhile another wave has formed on the system to the west and this tracks across the north of Scotland through the early hours of Thursday with rain spreading across the country but giving way to showers through Thursday as the cold front tracks south east

gfs_uv500_natl_11.thumb.png.66e0b51096982d01d1bd53afee2c8120.pngPPVI89.thumb.gif.804d522c32bc3ed80b15ab084484048d.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.bb2786d17d23d75e49a265541554d336.gif

Waves forming on the trailing front seems a never ending theme at the moment and by midday Friday another has tracked north east and deepened to 970mb over Stornoway so some more wet and windy weather with the longer periods of rain giving way to sunny intervals and showers/ A little bit of a N/S split temp wise.

gfs_t850a_natl_15.thumb.png.d5e118b9aeb19182d56bd197673c3a66.pnggfs_uv500_natl_15.thumb.png.6a97e1d0a01aefd488128e0351ff7cba.pngPPVM89.thumb.gif.93cdc69a1be0ef18f62079c82366f085.gif

By Saturday the winds will ease and a mixture of weather looks likely with rain in the south on the front and showers and sunny intervals in the north, of snow on the high ground, Quite a marked temp differential

PPVO89.thumb.gif.3f7d66c49f55f6421870df0c5dbc88e5.gifgfs_t2m_a_f_uk2_20.thumb.png.9782042e7c011e4937d9ef4c52681fbe.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Looking quickly further ahead with the ecm. Early complications as it has the wave on Saturday further north and a tad more intense with a latitudinal temp spread of 5 <>12C. and by t120 is 986mb in the North Sea

t120.thumb.png.993581dec46868d85366ca7d65138c38.png

The low tracks into southern Sweden as the subtropical high starts to amplify in the west and essentially the theme until the end of the run is about the latter struggling to maintain traction in the face of the usual pressure from the west.with temps varying around the average but tending a tad above by the end

t144.thumb.png.5954d8b059cfa8fa3e74c9b9f4c94d2a.pngt192.thumb.png.8ae048d8e6d26695d631add7392991db.pngt240.thumb.png.7f1245eea5d4db0c6029fad623a4a943.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

After a spell of very unsettled weather the good news is ECM settles things down next week for the majority and it turns warmer

ECMOPEU00_144_1.thumb.png.f78327710c843e10496d3a55ec0073f1.pngECMOPEU00_168_1.thumb.png.ba7112c4d3c6e0c768be788a28867b4b.png

ECMOPEU00_192_1.thumb.png.ee7bd26e6417d098099b554cb4dbc0d3.pngECMOPEU00_216_1.thumb.png.0768b963b102feca8f1f9728f4df0d3a.png

ECMOPEU00_240_1.thumb.png.9b450847cd801075dc13fc0e9132e0ff.png

UKMO extended on board as well

ukm2.2019031900_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.1c8cad497f9bf0ecc4e4a42439f5a1f1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 00z operational looks much better next week and even better towards the end with high pressure dominating and becoming pleasantly warm..building on yesterday's good trend.

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00_348_mslp500.png

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00_372_mslp500.png

00_384_mslp500.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

00Z GFS means showing more and more runs going the right side of the long term average through next week

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.9abc3399840d718fea2052981b307516.pnggefsens850Newcastle0.thumb.png.48788e0b6b02acc5fd2a633d3e3e7c41.pnggefsens850Edinburgh0.thumb.png.68b383eb821d83474c0490497ff0ec1d.png

The chances of snow is starting to diminish now on the ensembles

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

According to the mean EPS this storm forecast to track across the Plains certainly impacts the upstream pattern as the vortex lobe intensifies over Greenland and the subtropical high ridges in mid Atlantic. But the energy sweeping across the Atlantic as a consequence of this intense amplification suppresses the ridge and the trough to the north west again becomes the major player in the Atlantic

.t138.thumb.png.5a0520af7dc37a18a340dd8ae3d21103.pngt192.thumb.png.d0433991bf0f2b96b02bdc5444efb52b.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

I'd exercise caution still at this range....ECM looks much more transient than the GFS, and by day 10 the high has been pushed away again.

GEM just stays flat and zonal throughout! It'll be interesting to see the clusters today, last nights 12z ones had only a fleeting rise in pressure before low pressure took over again:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019031112_192.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019031112_288.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

The chances of snow is starting to diminish now on the ensembles

I shed a virtual tear when I read that but I'm really looking forward to the potential better weather next week on the Gfs / Ecm 00z.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Looking at the 0900 analysis it's easy to see the strong winds in the southern quadrant which are going ti hit the north this afternoon as the low slides south east

eur_full.thumb.gif.c1ad3e1b9c4e0ed4b185f2fd66221f58.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Well the 00z clusters are more supportive:

High pressure in the largest cluster at 240

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019031200_240.

Then a 55/45 split for the rest of the run for high pressure or a continuation of flat westerlies:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019031200_300.

Edited by mb018538
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
19 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Well the 00z clusters are more supportive:

High pressure in the largest cluster at 240

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019031200_240.

Then a 55/45 split for the rest of the run for high pressure or a continuation of flat westerlies:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019031200_300.

That high anomaly to our east is reminiscent of the ridging of late February, especially in the later control run chart. Either way, the patterns are moving more and more to an above average scenario later in the month.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

6z bringing major height rises down the road, so some pretty usable weather on the way folks. (ie) pretty amazing to see height rises over scandy as well after pretty much chasing that scenario for 3 months! Kind of makes me sick, perhaps next year it will show this much earlier, January would be nice. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Wow 6z even better than 00z..lovely spring weather on way after this week if it's right!!!!!!!!!?️

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Just to divert for a moment from the model outlook to the here and now.

Looking at the radar on. There must be some local evaporative cooling as the weather report frome can see the sharp line on the cold front shown on the forecast on BBC this morning. What it did not show, nor was it predicted, the very minor ripple on this cold front that has given more rain. The ripple shows on the 09Z chart (link=http://meteocentre.com/analysis/map-surface.php?map=UK&date=2019031211&size=large&lang=en&area=uk) in the Bristol Channel area and by 1100 over Lincs.

There must be local evaporative cooling as the Peak District, Leek observations and also from PM gave sleet or even heavy snow briefly at Leek. The web cam by the Cat and Fiddle shows this as does that by Flash Bar stores.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
3 hours ago, mb018538 said:

I'd exercise caution still at this range....ECM looks much more transient than the GFS, and by day 10 the high has been pushed away again.

GEM just stays flat and zonal throughout! It'll be interesting to see the clusters today, last nights 12z ones had only a fleeting rise in pressure before low pressure took over again:
 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019031200_240. ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019031200_288.

Just short of 3/4 support for the settling down D7-D10 with the other quarter staying flat westerly, then a near-even split between a changeable flow with near-average temps and a warm flow with high pressure near to the east but not near enough to prevent a risk of a cut-off or secondary low affecting the UK from the SW or W.

The first outcome is akin to a typical Nino pattern in April (note - a bit early!), while the second resembles something more Nina-like, though only loosely.

I'm leaning in favour of that first outcome, as the Nino base state has now established itself better than it ever did during the winter months. Room for it to be more persistently settled as per the 06z GFS, but not great confidence in that at this time.

 

Edit: the forum page didn't update to show your post with very similar analysis until after I made this one .

Edited by Singularity
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Gfsp certainly not thinking along exters idea! Is it the dreaded cold bias again, or do we become cooler/colder towards months end! 

gfsnh-1-372.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

2019-03-12-14-08-45.thumb.jpg.0334dccf561948520f3a486a8baf441f.jpg

Looking at this latest satellite, I know where I would rather be right now!

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16 minutes ago, knocker said:

To wrap up today the ana cold front went through here at 0800 gusting 50mph temp 10C and heavy rain. Still moderate rain at 1100 and temp 5C

2019031212.03808.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.148f8f9e89684eb4440c6e008024cf60.gif

It dropped to 3C with sleet after that squally cold front went through here in South Wales. Colder than the forecasts were suggesting

image.png

Edited by Jonathan Rhodri Roberts
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The rain from the cold front will shortly clear the south east but another batch of heavy rain is already into N. Ireland and western Scotland courtesy of storm Gateth which is starting to track south east and will pass close to N. Scotland tonight en route to the North Sea as it fills. The rain will spread further south and east through this evening and overnight giving may to frequent squally showers as the wind veers north westerly.

This wind has already started to pick up and could reach severe gale force down western coastal regions down as far as Wales and by later in the night down north eastern coasts as well.

PPVA89.thumb.gif.575f09eb537c1e347e35fb1681828d25.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.cf59039c2b668ae9d5e84bc801e172f2.gifr16.thumb.png.62b469d3733178d39202f7e915a6fc5b.pngr19.thumb.png.4ef5d1c53a06a867bb135ba13d8e1d92.pngr23.thumb.png.6e70ea5e649a619ad60402459d3ba35d.pngr03.thumb.png.8360eaa24928d0a2a7e2cc69ddf05994.pngr08.thumb.png.89cf4573143464e891902af5bf54307c.pngg19.thumb.png.ea3a9368138e4215b03283db4e5ae183.pngg00.thumb.png.445f09726aa2202e2293bb7761ec9e68.pngg03.thumb.png.0291291c9a6c1f20091bd8afdee9b777.pngg07.thumb.png.4f4f2e633c10add9409f5269b4d8b218.png

Current flood warnings and alerts

https://flood-warning-information.service.gov.uk/warnings

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

UKMO and ICON looking good for a transition to more settled weather early next week on the 12z T144:

image.thumb.jpg.abc162164b2e477e9a9befc4b812ffdc.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.6764d6a6f5b11ef31904184c66687884.jpg

In the meantime the rain is much needed, and we've certainly had a lot today!

 

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

GEM and GFS supporting the high pressure ridging in at T192:

image.thumb.jpg.061c014846f4ac228c73723414724660.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.a2bbd8cd0a5e43ead8afca59fb6e8708.jpg

Strong signals for a very settled warm spell for the latter part of the month, and it seems consistent with the Met Office updates too.  I think looking at GloSea5 and CFS, that an early summer might follow, and, more to the point, persist.

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