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Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 minute ago, cheeky_monkey said:

winter was rubbish here also...too cold for far too long..roll on spring

Live somewhere warmer then (in winter)..like the uk!

Anyway..the Gfs 12z shows a chance of a little snow in places at the weekend:shok:

 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Why have I jumped the cold ship for the warm train? Well this morning after sorting the horses out, what started as relatively a cold feel in the wind quickly changed my perspective when that big yellow thing in the sky made an appearance!! Even mid morning.... Boy did it pack a punch!! Its then you realise that snowfall now is gonna be very short lived when the sun strength we have now gets to work on it... Pointless in other words!! Anyhow gfs 12z points to some very useable weather not to far down the line! At least this should help erase the sadness of the failed winter

gfs-1-252.png

gfs-0-252.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 12z operational shows a BIG improvement next week..as the 00z / 06z did..high pressure could become the dominant feature beyond this week with temperatures into the mid teens celsius range..locally higher in favoured spots.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Gfsp ending with high pressure over us and some decent temps! Can't help but notice those ridiculously low uppers to our north though, I still have that cold itch and I'm desperately trying to scratch it!

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Posted
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath, Oxford

Who knows? That could be it for the winter of 18-19. Some of us got very lucky, lots didn't. If that is it for this winter though, roll on a hot spring and summer with some exciting thunderstorms! Let's hope next winter can deliver something more widespread for everyone to enjoy. 

Just to prove that this winter wasn't a total failure, here's a picture from 1st of February of this year. Hoping that we all get to see something like this in the next November, December, January, February, and March of 2019-2020! :drinks:❄️

image.thumb.png.ccf3235a504e493c44430507b994a0e3.png

Edited by Leon1
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I must just add that the Gfs 6z and 12z really fast track the pattern change from unsettled to settled compared to exeter..I hope the gfs is right and we won't have to endure another week of unsettled crud next week too..bring on the warm fine spring sunshine!!?️

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Little respite after the next couple of days as more rain and stongish winds on Thursday as another frrontal system rushes through

PPVJ89.thumb.gif.6f1dff004349c29e3be18aeb499cba84.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.e423cea7e526b966a47ed51a8205be14.gift66.thumb.png.cdb69a057f579653e41dd6a30758f07e.png

And whilst this is going on there is another wave forming away in the west which the ecm rushes north east and deepens to have it 962mb NW of Scotland by 1200 Friday bringing more heavy rain to Scotland and severe gales for a time.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Eventually the Ecm builds high pressure over us with warmer temps, just need to get the next week of turbulent weather out the way! 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 12z mean indicates a significant improvement next week, becoming much less unsettled for the majority with higher pressure and lighter winds,  predominantly much more pleasant surface conditions compared with the very unsettled disturbed pattern this week.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Quite the jump of ships from the ECM 12z from quite flat westerlies to amplified ridging across the UK.

Will be interesting to see how much the EPS follow suit.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean also indicates an improvement next week with the more unsettled weather gradually becoming more restricted to far northern uk and increasing ridging for at least the southern half with more in the way of pleasant spring surface conditions.

EDM1-192.GIF

EDM1-216.GIF

EDM1-240.GIF

EDM0-240.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Here they are folks, the 12z ensembles! 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking through the GEFS 12z postage stamps there are quite a few lovely anticyclonic spells developing during next week similar to what the 6z / 12z operational showed!

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Little change with the ext EPS this evening with a trough eastern Pacific, Alaskan ridge and the vortex N. Canada with associated trough southern Greenland/NW Atlantic. Still a strong westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard across the Atlantic with a suggestion of the subtropical high trying to ridge north over the UK so perhaps tending towards a N/S split regarding unsettled weather with temps beginning to nudge above average. This evening's NOAA in the same ball park

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Mmm despite the models showing perhaps a greater influence from atlantic ridging next week, I remain less than convinced there will anything more than weak temporary ridge features, and these never getting a hold on NW regions - far too much energy in the jet thanks to the significant cold uppers over arctic regions, SE parts as ever in these situations will see some longer lasting drier milder periods at times.

Rapid cyclogenesis..

In the short-term very unsettled disturbed weather, conditions more akin to late autumn/early winter - but we have been spared such conditions for much of the winter.

I type this hearing the rain once again battering against the window - a very wet period ahead, here.. Cumbria prime spot for flooding - not a good prospect! - fells could see in the region of 160mm in next 3-4 days, on the back of what has been a very 10 days or so.. its these set ups that cumulatively cause serious flooding in these parts.. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

For those who like both cold and hot, thoughts are turning to summer.  And it is looking good on GloSea5, with the March data out today.  Here 2m temperatures for Europe for May,  June, July so early summer:

image.thumb.jpg.d6e0d72f9004b5839d4bf77d732bc4bf.jpg

Very promising.  Heights:

image.thumb.jpg.1edbdbaf7c9a9992e445b79bf80ffab0.jpg

Finally, precipitation:

image.thumb.jpg.83e66b2d4110bc294d9e484296897da7.jpg

Reinforces a view that I've formed that another hot summer is likely, but the precipitation charts show no clear signal, so I wonder if a more humid, thundery element to the weather will be prevalent this year?  Last year was very dry, maybe not so this year?  Still some way out, of course, but interesting nonetheless.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

For those who like both cold and hot, thoughts are turning to summer.  And it is looking good on GloSea5, with the March data out today.  Here 2m temperatures for Europe for May,  June, July so early summer:

image.thumb.jpg.d6e0d72f9004b5839d4bf77d732bc4bf.jpg

Very promising.  Heights:

image.thumb.jpg.1edbdbaf7c9a9992e445b79bf80ffab0.jpg

Finally, precipitation:

image.thumb.jpg.83e66b2d4110bc294d9e484296897da7.jpg

Reinforces a view that I've formed that another hot summer is likely, but the precipitation charts show no clear signal, so I wonder if a more humid, thundery element to the weather will be prevalent this year?  Last year was very dry, maybe not so this year?  Still some way out, of course, but interesting nonetheless.

 

Looks very troughy the further into summer it runs

image.thumb.png.5a8793f8b929cf80731ea1b8811bc248.png

Not that it means anything at this range.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Hot and humid with spanish plums..I mean plumes would suit me!..anyway, the models are looking better for next week onwards, a good start!

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean also indicates an improvement next week with the more unsettled weather gradually becoming more restricted to far northern uk and increasing ridging for at least the southern half with more in the way of pleasant spring surface conditions.

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EDM1-240.GIF

EDM0-240.GIF

Aye, best EC for a few weeks really, GFS on board too, as has been for a few days

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
44 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

For those who like both cold and hot, thoughts are turning to summer.  And it is looking good on GloSea5, with the March data out today.  Here 2m temperatures for Europe for May,  June, July so early summer:

image.thumb.jpg.d6e0d72f9004b5839d4bf77d732bc4bf.jpg

Very promising.  Heights:

image.thumb.jpg.1edbdbaf7c9a9992e445b79bf80ffab0.jpg

Finally, precipitation:

image.thumb.jpg.83e66b2d4110bc294d9e484296897da7.jpg

Reinforces a view that I've formed that another hot summer is likely, but the precipitation charts show no clear signal, so I wonder if a more humid, thundery element to the weather will be prevalent this year?  Last year was very dry, maybe not so this year?  Still some way out, of course, but interesting nonetheless.

 

Good post as always Mike, but do you feel a little skeptical based on how bad GLOSEA5 and the like performed this winter! Could we really string 2 impeccable summers back to back? They say things come in pairs, but that wasn't the case with the last 2 winters, the beast last year, but a complete nothing this year. I'm prepared to sit on the fence for a while yet before making a prediction. Perhaps things will be clearer come May, be interesting to hear Exeters thoughts as well, I know for a fact they have made a pigs ear of at least 2 summer predictions over the last few years, the infamous barbecue summer, and also 2017.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

I've not posted much recently, total model fatigue after a long winter!  But I was struck by the stratosphere zonal winds plot:

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From -2 standard deviations to +2 according to GFS from Jan 1 to now.  The period of reverse winds looks massive in retrospect, and it is a sobering reminder that a SSW does not always lead to cold for this country, considering that many parts of the country got the square root of diddly squat.  

But I'm drawing a line under winter now. Roll on summer.  But the current unsettled weather is actually most welcome because we need the rain before the time of year when it fails to drain down into the aquifers.  Timely weather.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
46 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Looks very troughy the further into summer it runs

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Not that it means anything at this range.

Ahem - a three-monthly mean within half a hPa (i.e. mb) of the long-term average is a long way from very troughy.

I do however concur with the idea that it won't be such a stable summer as last year's - though some lengthy fine spells seem in with a good shout providing the El Nino stays at weak levels as per the current model consensus.

That Jun-Aug GloSea5 mean SLP plot hints at the potential for trough influences to be preceded by very warm or hot conditions across the UK - but it's hard to infer much from a mean of such a long period; for all we know, there could be two very settled months accompanied by a mainly unsettled one. After all, it's very difficult to achieve a full house of fine summer months in the UK, as we saw last year; you not only need the right combination of teleconnections to begin with, but you then need them to change in the right ways as the summer progresses, because what works well in June doesn't work well in August.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
12 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Good post as always Mike, but do you feel a little skeptical based on how bad GLOSEA5 and the like performed this winter! Could we really string 2 impeccable summers back to back? They say things come in pairs, but that wasn't the case with the last 2 winters, the beast last year, but a complete nothing this year. I'm prepared to sit on the fence for a while yet before making a prediction. Perhaps things will be clearer come May, be interesting to hear Exeters thoughts as well, I know for a fact they have made a pigs ear of at least 2 summer predictions over the last few years, the infamous barbecue summer, and also 2017.

I think GloSea5 has been more on the money for summer forecasts than winter,  when for last year and 2016/17 it was awful.  The output today is also consistent with  the contingency planners forecast at the end of last month, so a consistent message, which also gives increased confidence.  

Its early days re predictions for summer, but the sea surface temperatures around the UK are warmer than average which will no doubt factor into the equation.  

image.thumb.jpg.7f37a4635dcb46297ae7d16f501efd9b.jpg

I'm cautiously optimistic re summer warmth at the moment, but I do think a more humid and thundery flavour might be expected than last year.  We'll see!

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
24 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Ahem - a three-monthly mean within half a hPa (i.e. mb) of the long-term average is a long way from very troughy.

I do however concur with the idea that it won't be such a stable summer as last year's - though some lengthy fine spells seem in with a good shout providing the El Nino stays at weak levels as per the current model consensus.

That Jun-Aug GloSea5 mean SLP plot hints at the potential for trough influences to be preceded by very warm or hot conditions across the UK - but it's hard to infer much from a mean of such a long period; for all we know, there could be two very settled months accompanied by a mainly unsettled one. After all, it's very difficult to achieve a full house of fine summer months in the UK, as we saw last year; you not only need the right combination of teleconnections to begin with, but you then need them to change in the right ways as the summer progresses, because what works well in June doesn't work well in August.

OK should have chosen my wording more carefully... It would potentially feel very troughy with clear mornings followed by intense home grown storms via diurnal convection- courtesy of slack pressure regimes. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

And in the meantime the 18z bringing another taste of spring! 

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gfs-1-252.png

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