Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins

[Nick F]

Strong & damaging wind gusts this morning across southern England, 70mph gust Isle of Portland, Dorset; 67mph at Manston & 65mph at Lydd in Kent. Gusts on south side of not a particularly deep low tracking east, descending dry air intrusion likely bringing strong jet winds aloft downwards to surface.

WV imagery shows up the dry air intrusion running across southern counties, some strong winds / low-level westerly jet at 925 hPa this morning not far aloft likely brought down to the surface in gusts by the dry air intrusion.

Were stronger gusts over 70mph over northern Belgium and southern Holland.

Windy again later on Tuesday / Tuesday night in the north, but looks like strongest winds peaking to the NW before landfall, with the low filling as it crosses SE across Scotland. Still a deep low though, could be 50-60mph gusts across the north, 60-70mph gusts with exposure, low could deepen more and gusts be stronger.

Doesn't look like much in the way of wintriness on the way for next week away from high ground, certainly not on par as today for the north, any snow looks confined to hills for N England, though could fall to lower levels at times across Scotland. Milder gets wrapped up easily into the deep system heading for Scotland mid-week, then subsequent lows moving in from the west bring milder westerlies until later on Friday, when we see a return of deeper cold Pm flow from the NW perhaps by the weekend.

Edited March 10, 2019 by Nick F

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Nice couple of snap shots from gfs and gfsp for last part of march. 

[Frosty.]

8 hours ago, Frosty. said:

 but at least T+384

The Gfs 12z operational saved the best chart until last!!..I hope late March into April does become more anticyclonic and warmer which is the longer term signal!!

Edited March 10, 2019 by Frosty.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Gfs 12z operational saved the best chart until last!!..I hope late March into April does become more anticyclonic and warmer which is the longer term signal!!

Yes indeed frosty, temps should start to increase has the sun strength increases, apart from a shot of polar maritime air next weekend I think the writing is on the wall for this winter now, not sure if you agree, but that's my current take on it now. 

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

I think the writing is on the wall for this winter now, not sure if you agree, but that's my current take on it now. 

Yes I do agree, I'm fed up of chasing phantom cold from the N / E..been chasing them for the last 4 months without success and unless something incredible shows up i am looking forward to longer warmer sunnier days.

[Don]

34 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Yes indeed frosty, temps should start to increase has the sun strength increases, apart from a shot of polar maritime air next weekend I think the writing is on the wall for this winter now, not sure if you agree, but that's my current take on it now. 

 

27 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Yes I do agree, I'm fed up of chasing phantom cold from the N / E..been chasing them for the last 4 months without success and unless something incredible shows up i am looking forward to longer warmer sunnier days.

Final towels in for cold potential then.  It's been kind of fun (sort of!!) 

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 12z mean, there are signs longer term that the azores high will be ridging up across at least southern uk with the unsettled atlantic weather becoming more restricted to northern uk..the postage stamps show a fair number of nice anticyclonic runs by late march...which happens to be the longer term..dare I say..background signal!

PS..just for fun I found a cold shot too but it doesn't have any support..surprise surprise!!

[knocker]

The ecm at T120 has an upper trough dominating the north west Atlantic with a strong unstable westerly flow over the UK with frequent showers. By t144 the subtropical high is beginning to amplify in the western Atlantic and the trough is sliding south east across the UK. irgo less windy but still very unsettled. By T168 the ridge has been pushed east by energy from the west but the trough is still hanging in there over the UK so sunshine and showers with temps a tad below average. By T192 the ridge is over the UK with fronts approaching western Ireland. All subject to adjustment of course

Edited March 10, 2019 by knocker

[MATTWOLVES 3]

52 minutes ago, Don said:

 

Final towels in for cold potential then.  It's been kind of fun (sort of!!) 

Don it has been a nightmare! I've been over analizing charts and ensembles for nigh on 4 months and I ain't even recorded a snow shower out of it! Everything has constantly been at 10+days,i really don't know what to name this winter! The winter of boredom, the winter of the 10+day charts, the winter of the phantom Easterly perhaps! While I'm here I would just like to thank everyone for there input this winter, some of the posts have been awesome! I've learnt a lot. There is literally to many of you to name, but what I've learnt I can't thank you all enough! I only hope you are all raring to go again come November for the long haul! And perhaps next time we will be a bit more fortunate, I was gonna finish by posting the Ecm snapshots of the next 10 day's regarding some cold, but tbh there ain't much to get overly excited about +I just couldn't be @ssed. So it's time for me to wind down and jump aboard the hunt for spring thread, at least now I will be less stressed, keep up the great posts folks, your all a credit to a great netweather forum!!!! Onwards and upwards folks! 

 

[Frosty.]

9 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

the Ecm snapshots of the next 10 day's regarding some cold, but tbh there ain't much to get overly excited about +I just couldn't be @ssed.

 

You are right, the Ecm 12z is meh, no deep cold, just occasional -5 uppers which at this time of year means 10-11c for the south..unsettled run with a few drier days..if this is as good as it gets for coldies, stuff it..bring on the warmer anticyclonic late March / early April!

[booferking]

18 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

You are right, the Ecm 12z is meh, no deep cold, just occasional -5 uppers which at this time of year means 10-11c for the south..unsettled run with a few drier days..if this is as good as it gets for coldies, stuff it..bring on the warmer anticyclonic late March / early April!

Finally your seeing sence snowed here today and yesterday brutally cold in the wind all for nothing just a hindrance hope gfs is on the money for late March. 

[Frosty.]

10 minutes ago, booferking said:

Finally your seeing sense

 

That's a bit unfair, I always describe what the models are showing whatever that may be and the majority on here have been chasing cold for months..not just me!

Anyway, the models show the unsettled spell continuing for a while longer with temperatures fluctuating around normal but still a risk of overnight frosts during any quieter interludes between depressions.

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean in the extended range indicates the azores high ridging towards the uk, similar to the longer term Gefs 12z mean..hints that fine spring weather may not be too far away..at least further south!

[ANYWEATHER]

Good Evening All...! The "Normal" March weather continues courtesy of the strong pressure gradient between the Azores High , and the Strong polar vortex over Greenland, but both models gfs and ecm show a buckling of the jet stream to the south of the uk, so away from the relentless wind and rain , colder , but quieter weather, with some Gorgeous Sky Scapes this coming weekend , Lots of weather coming up , wind ,rain ,snow , sleet , sunshine , slow moving showers,,,Thunder and Lightning  and some warm sunshine in the Best places....

[knocker]

The Atlantic 500mb and surface charts for midnight and the 0500 UK chart

The next couple of days are going to be very wet and windy so keep a beady on the METO updates. The wintry showers that are currently still afflicting north western regions will die out during this morning as a ridge slides east. Thus after a chilly start not a bad day as the wind drops but out to the west the much mentioned low is undergoing rapid cyclogenesis and cloud from the associated warm front will quite quickly ingress western regions accompanied by rain over N. Ireland and western Scotland by 1800.

During this evening the heavy rain will move east, with the heaviest rain concentrated over the northern half of the country, and then in the early hours of tomorrow another belt of rain, associated with the cold front, will start to track south east down the country.

Whilst this is going on the wind will pick up and become very strong over western and north western regions and then basically follow the travels of the cold front  Certainly looking at severe gales around western coastal areas.

The rain and cold front, and high winds, will eventually clear the south east by 1500 tomorrow leaving much of the country with squally showers but the low is now drifting south east and the wrap around occlusion will bring more heavy rain into Scotland at the same time along with more severe winds.

Over Tuesday night and through Wednesday the low will continue to drift south east across Scotland into the North Sea  Thus the continuous heavy rain and very strong winds will shift south a tad across Wales and England before easing later as the wind veers north westerly.

But any respite is short lived as the next frontal system wings through on Thursday on the strong upper flow (near 100kts at 500mb) bringing more rain, sunny interval and showers, and strong winds (not as strong). Temps which have been irrelevant, a tad above average

By Friday the system is well clear to the east leaving the country in a brisk north westerly with frequent showers, mainly concentrated in western regions.

Edited March 11, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

To continue with he gfs. It develops the wave that can seen on the previous fax chart and tracks it through Wales and southern England on Saturday so more rain.

By Sunday the trough is still influencing the weather over the UK with the subtropical high flexing it's muscles in mid Atlantic, But as ever it comes under pressure but is still just hanging in there over the  next couple of days, albeit some fronts are bringing rain to the north

[knocker]

The ecm has the wave on Saturday a tad further north so worth keeping an eye on as there is quite an impressive temp gradient over the UK

Thereafter not dissimilar to the gfs initially but breaks down the ridge quicker and brings more frontal rain in Monday/Tuesday

 

Edited March 11, 2019 by knocker

[mb018538]

Nothing much to whet the appetite again today. Still a continuation of the unsettled, wet and windy regime for the next 10 days. I normally like to contribute to the model forum, but i find it hard to keep coming back and posting the same thing every day for my least favourite weather type!

[Frosty.]

Must say the Gfs 00z operational  looks much better next week, high pressure and more spring like temperatures..even better end to the run too!

[knocker]

Looking at this morning's ext EPS and last evening's NOAA there are some subtle differences upstream vis the orientation of the ridge over western North America and the vortex lobe/trough in the Labrador Strait/Greenland area, resulting in the EPS seemingly not getting quite as much traction out of the subtropical high pushing north east in the eastern Atlantic as the latter. This is quite important as it involves the transition to a more settled period with temps rising to around average and hopefully above.

[knocker]

How's our low getting on at 0800?

[summer blizzard]

GFS is forecasting amplification of the Nino standing wave just west of the dateline again which may be responsible for the longer range output suggesting a more high pressure dominated outlook. 

[knocker]

The 0900 geostationary

[stodge]

Morning all :)

The signal for rising pressure from the SW continues unabated this morning with a strong MLB forming close to the British Isles in the last week of the month. At this time of year HP can still mean fog and frost early and late and as we saw late last month some noteworthy diurnal values.

The PV continues to slowly weaken as you'd expect, reducing in size with the 10 HPA temperature rising slowly as well. By month end the coldest air is lifting out of North America with the Atlantic slowing as well.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Amazing ain't it, after 4 months of searching for cold and snow, a big fat nothing!!! I join the hunt for spring... And within 24hrs I see high pressure building and temps perhaps in to the high teens!!! Bring it! 

Edited March 11, 2019 by Mattwolves