Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins

[MATTWOLVES 3]

18z still bringing the snow, even Eastern parts and perhaps the SE as well, its also still going with a Nthly next weekend with snow showers possible in a fair few locations. Obviously it's gonna be dependent on how much of a punch the Nthly packs, either way it's nice to see one after not seeing it throughout the winter months, my god I'm almost in shock at the thought of it! 

[feb1991blizzard]

[Bristawl Si]

It'll be cold rain for most, bar The North and higher ground with wet snow.

Those snow charts have proven, over the years, to be grossly exaggerated re snow. They look dramatic but often translate to heavy wintry showers, not widespread snow (face value look like forecasting proper snow).....clickbait.

[SLEETY]

mixture of everything in the next week and the ski resorts are opening again. 

We certainly got payback from that record warm spell, extremely unsettled weather now and very unpleasant at times with the rain and strong winds, can we squeeze one decent cold spell with snow for many, before it's too late in the season. Still plenty of time left. 

[Frosty.]

Looking at the models, tomorrow looks a wintry day with a risk of snow..not only on hills, even in the south although the thermometer doesn't look cold it will feel bitterly cold in that wind..wrap up warm tomorrow!!!

Edited March 9, 2019 by Frosty.

[knocker]

The 500mb and surface (not a good chart) analysis for midnight and the actual for 0500

Quite a complicated scenario this weekend with, I suspect, the detail yet to be nailed down. There is currently a band of rain, some snow on the higher ground, across N. Ireland, SW Scotland and the north of England. This should clear away east during the day leaving most of the country dry except for frequent squally wintry showers in the north marking a quite significant N/S temp variation/

But by late afternoon a wave that has formed on the front trailing away to the south west has tracked north east and has brought cloud and rain to the south west. This tracks north east through this evening and overnight and there could well be some snow on the high ground in Wales and even the Midlands. And further complications arise by morning as a shallow wave is forming on the occlusion moving east from the west of Ireland bringing rain, and snow on the high ground, to N. Ireland by 0600

This little feature tracks across the north through Sunday bringing a mixture of rain and snow, which could fall to quite low levels in Scotland and the north of England. A quite tricky scenario. Elsewhere quite frequent wintry showers in the brisk north west wind. Quite chilly with temps below average

Once all of this clears a ridge moves in over Sunday night through Monday so a much better day with sunny intervals but the low that has been discussed previously has entered the fray in mid Atlantic ans undergoing rapid cyclogenesis and deepening rapidly

The low continues to deepen and by midnight Tuesday is 954mb south of Iceland and this has not only initiated strong winds over much of the country particularly the NW, but also heavy rain as the associated fronts track east through Monday/ Tuesday. And as can be seen by 1200 Tuesday the fronts are well clear to the east but the low has drifted south east as it fills and is just west of the Hebrides resulting in more persistent rain/snow and very strong winds continuing here with the rest of the country in squally showers

The low continues to fill and drift east into the North Sea overnight Tuesday into Wednesday resulting in the surface wind veering north westerly and still quite brisk with sunny intervals and showers being the name of the game.

 

 

Edited March 9, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

Moving briefly on from here with the ecm. As the low fills away to the east there is little respite as by 1200 Thursday a new deep low has arrived over Iceland and the associated front has brought more rain and strong wind, particularly in the north Over the next 18 hours another front has phased in with this trough and sweeps across the country bringing more heavy rain with strong winds,possibly severe gales in exposed western areas/

The main low drifts ESE and dominates proceedings until the end of the week so remaining breezy with sunny intervals and showers

 

[Summer Sun]

Tuesday and Wednesday continues to show the potential for some very strong winds at times

The 2nd half of next week shows high pressure edging up from the south not close enough to keep the UK completely settled but it should become a bit calmer for a few days after the potential for gales at the start of the week

UKMO extended shows the high retreating back south again allowing rain to return to most areas and probably becoming windier again

Edited March 9, 2019 by Summer Sun

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Signs from the 0z of high pressure building in the final 3rd of March, temps perhaps mid teens! In the meantime gfsp 0z serves up one hell of a mean northerly with - 12 uppers to the north, will be interesting to see how that plays out on the 6z. 

[Tim Bland]

Very similar on 06z so a persistent signal for that northerly nxt weekend. A wintry week or so coming up! 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The gfs 6z brings the Nthly still, and next weekend the snow risk could be more widespread with many more areas getting in on the action, been a while since we saw a potent Nthly, what a wonderful thing snow is.. Let's have one last hoorahh!! 

Edited March 9, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Frosty.]

Great to see the Arctic  Northerly still showing..hope the models continue to firm up on the Arctic plunge..snow is indeed a beautiful thing!

Edited March 9, 2019 by Frosty.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Great to see the Arctic  Northerly still showing..hope the models continue to firm up on the Arctic plunge..snow is indeed a beautiful thing!

Will post the ensembles in a bit frosty, but it looks like they are firming up on that Nthly, we just need that dam stubborn ecm to jump aboard now

[Frosty.]

Just had a look at the ensembles and certainly some kind of colder shot is being lined up for next weekend, it's just a question of whether it's polar or arctic maritime..obviously I hope the longevity and potency is upgraded!!!!!!!!!!!! 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

18 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Great to see the Arctic  Northerly still showing..hope the models continue to firm up on the Arctic plunge..snow is indeed a beautiful thing!

Aye, liked the last few GFS runs in FI, looks like getting more settled, around 19th, but does tend to downgrade settled spells, wanna see EC coming on board

[knocker]

The jet streak associated with the rapid cyogenesis on Monday

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

ONE WORD!!!!!! 

[knocker]

Sat image 1130. A thickening veil of Cs has arrived here

[Frosty.]

14 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

ONE WORD!!!!!! 

 

 

I prefer Boomtastic!..nice to see some cold and snow potential following the winter dross fest!!

Edited March 9, 2019 by Frosty.

[BlueHedgehog074]

The 06Z ICON seems to generally have tonight’s tiny low/wave feature a little further South compared to some other models, which may put more of the Midlands in the risk zone for some wintry weather during early Sunday morning. 

Higher ground clearly more likely to be favoured, but could put more of the South at play for some possible sleet or snow (except the far South under those 0+ 850 hPa temperatures). 

Will be a now-casting situation, though hopefully there’ll be a surprise for some of those wanting to see some falling white stuff. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

9 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

The 06Z ICON seems to generally have tonight’s tiny low/wave feature a little further South compared to some other models, which may put more of the Midlands in the risk zone for some wintry weather during early Sunday morning. 

Higher ground clearly more likely to be favoured, but could put more of the South at play for some possible sleet or snow (except the far South under those 0+ 850 hPa temperatures). 

Will be a now-casting situation, though hopefully there’ll be a surprise for some of those wanting to see some falling white stuff. 

You had me on board AT... MIDLANDS!!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

You can't complain at this stage of winter crossing over to spring stage, even London getting some decent snow row activity! One last boom shak a lak from me, then I'm gonna calm down as its playing havoc with the blood pressure!! That's unless we have a stonking 12z, then i may have to come out of retirement again... Sorry folks!! 

[Frosty.]

Exeter certainly don't support the snow and arctic plunge idea from the gfs 0z / 6z next weekend or beyond..Indeed there is NO mention of snow or even wintry showers in either of the longer range updates today.. Longer term it's still looking good for spring warmth and settled through late March and especially early April.

Edited March 9, 2019 by Frosty.

[nobble]

Yellow warning out for snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

23 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Exeter certainly don't support the snow and arctic plunge idea from the gfs 0z / 6z next weekend or beyond..Indeed there is NO mention of snow or even wintry showers in either of the longer range updates today.. Longer term it's still looking good for spring warmth and settled through late March and especially early April.

There doesn't appear to be any cross model agreement frosty, which is normally the case with any potential cold snap. Gem attempts one but quickly  falters, jma brings a NW flow but that quickly flattens, ecm is having non of it, that leaves the gfs models on there own! And like you say Exeter appears to be having non of it also! 

Edit.. UKMO also a million miles away from it! 

Edited March 9, 2019 by Mattwolves