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Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
6 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yup cold weather at this time of the year just feels awful, especially if its cold wind and snow is increasingly difficult to settle unless we have a continental easterly or a seriously cold northerly. Hardly any settled weather which isn't good for the outdoors.

I hope, like 99.99% of the UK population, that we get some warm settled weather soon. 

We had summer last week, back to Autumn now for the next 9 months.

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Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
4 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

There as been spring flowers in my garden since January! as for birds nesting, I think the pigeons are at it constantly. Gfs does have high pressure over us later this month, although not overly warm, on the other hand the GFSP has us staying quite a bit colder. Pick your poison!! Like I've stated a lot recently, give me a decent snow event and I will be ready for spring proper! I've spent that much time searching for it these last 3 months my head is literally falling off. Frosty and Feb must also feel the same by now, I really hope background signals are crap next winter but it delivers big time. As for the coming summer I predict a tale of 2 halves, a very warm settled start, followed by a cooler more unsettled latter! As for the coming winter.... I've just heard on the grapevine.. Emerging background signals are looking positive!

You should definitely win a prize for perseverance under very trying circumstances!  The absence of widespread lasting snow this winter has been matched only by the models almost constant promises of snowmaggedon which failed to deliver.  It's been a hard lesson to learn for me but in future I shall take everything shown beyond 5 days as complete guesswork - much the same as the guesswork involved when your partner says 'Dont bother to buy me flowers or chocolates for Valentines day'.....   Do you take this literally or is it supposed to mean the opposite?  We'll probably never know the answer to that question or indeed whether the models are making it up as they go along.....

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Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
4 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Good news longer term, the Gfs so far today (and recently) indicates a warming and more settled trend towards and beyond the spring equinox..as does exeter!

Exeter have been superb in the last few months, consistently getting the further outlook wrong.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
6 minutes ago, Ramp said:

We had summer last week, back to Autumn now for the next 9 months.

Come on ramp, it's bad enough with the failed winter cold snaps, but the thought of 9 months of autumn really does depress me, and I would imagine most of the forum! 

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Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
Just now, Mattwolves said:

Come on ramp, it's bad enough with the failed winter cold snaps, but the thought of 9 months of autumn really does depress me, and I would imagine most of the forum! 

If you think about it barring a couple of blips we are in our 6th month of Autumn now, seasons are a thing of the past.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
3 minutes ago, Ramp said:

Exeter have been superb in the last few months, consistently getting the further outlook wrong.

They were only going on what GloSea5 seasonal and mogreps and every other piece of model data was telling them..can't blame them really..anyway, as others have said, hopefully the more settled and warmer longer term trend from the gfs / exeter will bear fruit..in the meantime, the models show some cold and snow potential.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

There is definitely going to be some snow in the north on Sunday, can we get those uppers to creep a little further south!! And boooom ecm brings a Nthly at day 10! 3 months and counting! Just another 10 days and we could have it.....for at least 24hrs!!

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
35 minutes ago, Ramp said:

If you think about it barring a couple of blips we are in our 6th month of Autumn now, seasons are a thing of the past.

If you care to look back in history, nothing has changed and seasons are not things of the past, the only thing what has changed is people's perceptions unfortunately 

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

And once again swiftly back to what the thread is intended for, Thankyou.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Plenty of colder options on display from ecm over the coming 10 days, so snow will be an ongoing risk for some.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

A few highlights (for coldies) from the Ecm 12z operational..certainly cold enough at times for wintry ppn, especially on hills and further north, sunday looks particularly cold with showers turning to snow in places and merging at times..then a wintry end to the run with air straight from the Arctic.❄❄❄️:cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
1 hour ago, ANYWEATHER said:

If you care to look back in history, nothing has changed and seasons are not things of the past, the only thing what has changed is people's perceptions unfortunately 

Perhaps people's perceptions have changed as the climate has become warmer?

Back to the model output and a very Westerly/ polar maritime dominated outlook. A lot of the cold uppers over North America have gone which will stop the cold pooling in the North Atlantic for a time. The Azores high therefore could shift but where it will go is up for question, the GFS sees it move over us but a colder N/NW'ly may not be out of the question.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

A familiar dissonance caught my eye today - the MJO's trying to defy both the models and the Nino base state by remaining active as it crosses Indonesia. Something to keep an eye on; it's probably why we've seen the transition to Nino-style mid-Atlantic ridging struggle to move closer to reality and start to be ditched after just a few days in favour of height rises over or a little east of the UK; Indonesian MJO activity keeps a flatter pattern in place for phase 4, before promoting height rises NW Europe to Scandinavia in phase 5.

Really interesting how the MJO keeps on defiantly cycling at quite high amplitude through phases atypical of a Nino base state despite that state having become significantly better defined in the past fortnight, in fact more so than it was all winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Quite a scary possible scenario if ocean circulation patterns were to collapse! Then we really would be seeing some disturbing winters! 

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Posted
  • Location: East London
  • Location: East London
57 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Quite a scary possible scenario if ocean circulation patterns were to collapse! Then we really would be seeing some disturbing winters! 

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Could you elaborate on that for newbies like me  thanks 

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

Quite a scary possible scenario if ocean circulation patterns were to collapse! Then we really would be seeing some disturbing winters! 

3BDCE5FB00000578-4090226-image-a-3_1483606209203.jpg

Where has that chart originated from and when it is supposed to be indicating such a sea climate please?

Edited by johnholmes
usual poor spelling
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

Then we really would be seeing some disturbing winters! 

The lame winter just gone was disturbing enough for me thanks!....moving on, models show a chance of snow, especially on sunday as colder polar air sweeps across the uk with some quite beefy snow showers packing in across the n / w but even further s / e the showers could turn wintry with a mix of hail, sleet and snow with a rumble or two of thunder for good measure.

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Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
3 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Where has that chart originated from and when it is sopposed to be indicating such a sea climate please?

Hopefully 144

Edited by icykev
gfs or ecm not fussy ?
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
13 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Where has that chart originated from and when it is supposed to be indicating such a sea climate please?

Its more of a possibility forecast John. Based on the current known as the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation what ferries warm waters northwards, where the heat is released into the atmosphere and carries  cold water south in the deep ocean layers. As you know its basically works like a giant conveyor belt, and if this movement were to stop the heat would not get distributed and weather havoc could ensue! The AMOC is getting weaker due to the melting of glaciers and sea ice, this process as been going on for tens of decades and with global temps expected to keep increasing, the AMOC is likely to weaken further. 

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
13 minutes ago, icykev said:

Hopefully 144

What you mean these far fetched fantastic gfs snow charts kev!! 

Houston...... We have lift off!! 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
10 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

There clearly is a passive slant towards a climate argument in your recent posts though and you were the first to mention the word climate in your 'climate emergency' post earlier so its your problem. I was correcting ANYWEATHER for their inaccurate post, I agree that it shouldn't be discussed here but if someone purposefully misleads then I feel as a scientist in the area I have to address it for the people reading this forum.

Anyhow time to put the topic to bed. 

Your point quicksilver is valid, but you should know as an expert in the area that not all scientists agree! A warming climate is most likely happening, but it could also have devastating mid term affects regarding cold!! Anyway nuff said from me. 

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Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

What you mean these far fetched fantastic gfs snow charts kev!! 

Houston...... We have lift off!! 

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I am in North Kent so forget the charts, concentrating on the rocket and getting the cold back in . I always live in hope Mr Wolf.

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Your point quicksilver is valid, but you should know as an expert in the area that not all scientists agree! A warming climate is most likely happening, but it could also have devastating mid term affects regarding cold!! Anyway nuff said from me. 

Yes I did notice the chart you posted earlier., there are signs the AMOC is weakening as seen with the North Atlantic cold blob but whether the AMOC will collapse completely is still viewed as doubtful (thankfully). Such a scenario would not see a drop in global temperatures (as 97% of scientists agree) but it would see a complete change in state. Western European winters would turn much colder whereas equatorial warming would be greatly accelerated.

I hope such a scenario would not come off as the AMOC acts as a moderator, releasing heat from the tropics.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yes I did notice the chart you posted earlier., there are signs the AMOC is weakening as seen with the North Atlantic cold blob but whether the AMOC will collapse completely is still viewed as doubtful (thankfully). Such a scenario would not see a drop in global temperatures (as 97% of scientists agree) but it would see a complete change in state. Western European winters would turn much colder whereas equatorial warming would be greatly accelerated.

I hope such a scenario would not come off as the AMOC acts as a moderator, releasing heat from the tropics.

Very well put, that's exactly the situation I was referring to. The NW hemisphere becoming much colder. As you will be aware quicksilver turning off that warm current would be like turning of the central heating on a freezing night. What could happen during the next 100 or more years doesn't bare thinking about. Thanks for your take on things, I'm aware your well acquainted with global and climate conditions.

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